Tropical Potential Caribbean/Gulf system

Webberweather53 · 2024-09-19T20:31:21-0400

I generally like the overall look on the aifs the last several runs holistically.

If we had the kind of Central America Gyre case where we were just waiting for the Kelvin wave envelope to cross Central America to trigger everything, I’d agree with the euro on keeping development entirely in the BOC knowing how the gfs likes to speed these things up.

Oth, the trough that digs into the southern gulf in a few days and triggers QG ascent in the western Caribbean & subsidence + shear in the bay of Campeche changes the calculus of this whole setup a lot.

Eventually, the environment gets better in the bay of Campeche, but it takes longer to get conducive for large scale convective heating than in the western Caribbean

PEA_RIDGE · 2024-09-19T20:56:08-0400

ILL TAKE THE RED ARROWS ON THE ATTACHED PICTURE
REF THE BLACK ARROW AS THAT IS MY HOUSE

jeremyt · 2024-09-19T22:30:10-0400

Gonna be a long 10 days or so with people living and dying by each individual model run and posting what they like! Has it formed yet?

GaWx · 2024-09-20T00:24:24-0400

0Z UKMET: TCG at 168 hours 75 miles SSW of W tip of Cuba (50 miles NE of 12Z’s hour 168 position, which is 12 hours earlier); already down to 1001 mb:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 20.8N 85.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.09.2024 168 20.8N 85.3W 1001 32

lexxnchloe · 2024-09-20T03:42:40-0400

CMC and gfs not worth posting a map about. Very weak and basically nothing

Shaggy · 2024-09-20T05:30:33-0400

Ensembles remain very active not just for this storm but the others as well.

lexxnchloe · 2024-09-20T06:32:24-0400

Makes a comeback at 06z

Henry2326 · 2024-09-20T08:07:32-0400

Icon and GFS are on point on 9/27.

The rest of them all over the place.

Henry2326 · 2024-09-20T08:58:28-0400

How different can they be????

Henry2326 · 2024-09-20T09:00:31-0400

NHC extends the circle to the west.

Chazwin · 2024-09-20T09:59:53-0400

Henry2326 said:
Icon and GFS are on point on 9/27.

The rest of them all over the place.

View attachment 151336

View attachment 151337

As much as I’ve been down on the Icon at times the last few years, I gotta say, it’s done very well with predicting storm development this year

Shaggy · 2024-09-20T10:34:12-0400

Chazwin said:
As much as I’ve been down on the Icon at times the last few years, I gotta say, it’s done very well with predicting storm development this year

I've started looking at the icon more than I do the cmc. It sometimes does good with a system and sometimes it misses too

NWMSGuy · 2024-09-20T10:45:15-0400

For what it's worth, the 0Z Spire model moves this close to the Big Bend area before moving it northwest from there.

GaWx · 2024-09-20T11:41:29-0400

12Z ICON: major change in track vs prior runs! Instead of going into the W Gulf, it never goes W of 89W and landfalls (at ~997 mb) at Panama City, FL, at hour 159 on Thu night.

Chazwin · 2024-09-20T12:19:11-0400

GaWx said:
12Z ICON: major change in track vs prior runs! Instead of going into the W Gulf, it never goes W of 89W and landfalls (at ~997 mb) at Panama City, FL, at hour 159 on Thu night.

That would certainly be more in line with climo for late September

NoSnowATL · 2024-09-20T12:30:55-0400

NoSnowATL · 2024-09-20T12:31:25-0400

NoSnowATL · 2024-09-20T12:31:56-0400

thanksgivingbrown · 2024-09-20T12:40:04-0400

Man if those model runs come to fruition Saturday 28th in Tuscaloosa is gonna be a mess for the big game between Bama and Georgia.

accu35 · 2024-09-20T12:52:23-0400

Gfs is really wanting MS/AL

Tropical Potential Caribbean/Gulf system

ASST. FIRE CHIEF