HERE IS THE DAY 6 OUTLOOK
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 270755
SPC AC 270755
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2020
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance continues to come into better agreement
regarding the eastward ejection of an upper trough/low from the
Southwest and northern Mexico across the southern/central Plains
from Day 4/Sunday through Day 6/Tuesday. Low-level moisture will
continue to advect northward across the southern Plains and lower MS
Valley in this time frame. The past several runs of the
deterministic ECMWF have been relatively consistent in the timing
and amplitude of the eastward ejection of the upper trough/low.
The potential for substantial low-level moisture return across parts
of east TX into the ArkLaMiss by Day 6/Tuesday has increased. Low
and mid-level flow are also forecast to markedly strengthen across
these areas, particularly Tuesday evening into early Wednesday
morning. With strong forcing for ascent preceding the upper
trough/low, a surface low should deepen as it develops northeastward
from portions of east TX into the vicinity of the Mid-South. A
trailing cold front should also shift eastward across TX into parts
of the lower MS Valley by the end of the Day 6/Tuesday period (early
Wednesday morning).
A thermodynamic and kinematic parameter space favorable for the
formation and maintenance of organized severe thunderstorms will
probably exist over these areas from Tuesday evening though early
Wednesday morning. Storms could form both along and ahead of the
eastward-moving cold front, with all severe hazards possible.
Therefore, a 15% severe delineation has been introduced for Day
6/Tuesday. There is some uncertainty with how far east the threat
will extend into MS late Tuesday night, and adjustments to this 15%
area are likely.
Uncertainty in the placement of both the upper trough/low and
related surface low increases into Day 7/Wednesday. At least some
severe threat may continue across parts of the Southeast (mainly
AL/GA vicinity), but low-level moisture should gradually decrease
with eastward extent. 15% severe probabilities may be needed in a
later outlook issuance over parts of the Southeast on Day
7/Wednesday once the synoptic-scale evolution becomes a bit clearer.
..Gleason.. 02/27/2020
euro looked interesting as it appeared it I went negative before IT headed north and after that another SER pump/flex occurred 
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