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Possible severe weather March 3-5

Myfrotho704_ said:
RAP has backed off, still nasty soundings but not quite as impressive, looks like hrrr is slowing down the rain shield, which may put a damper on the severe threat
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Meh, at this point I have trust issues with pretty much every model. Especially after this winter. Like I mentioned before, it was supposed to be at the very least cloudy right now. Instead, it's mostly clear. Tomorrow, like this winter, is once again reliant on nowcasting.
 
Interesting to note that the cells in Alabama that are moving into Georgia as well are not seen on the modeling .. a lot of models brew something up in those states at like 8-9 am ... hmmmmmm
 
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TAKE COVER


At 1238 AM CST, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located near Nashville, moving east at 45 mph.


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hrrr is bringing it back again, quite interesting environment for mini low topped supercells 96AC5DE6-65C9-4F7D-910D-78DA51C3D7CE.png811CCFD8-4E2A-4AE1-82B3-7745729A310E.pngA500DA9C-8918-4F83-AB23-460EF704B213.png
 
Tornado warning for Chilton co. Alabama
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Peaks of sun are definitely shining through right now ... will we continue to get more cloudy or still get these peaks? If so we need to watch out
 
If we get sufficient CAPE, I definitely think the environment could support a few isolated tornadoes despite the fact we aren’t even under a formal 2% risk from the SPC. Strong low level shear & 0-1 SRH, steep low level lapse rates (7C/km isn’t bad), and long cyclonically curved hodos like the one being shown on the HRRR can certainly support a tornado or two. Timing wise, looks like the storms will reach the US 1/I 95 corridors around 5-9pm

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Not sure which thread to use for the severe weather, so I'll post this here, too.

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Mesoscale Discussion 0142
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0725 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2020

Areas affected...central Alabama into west-central Georgia

Concerning...Tornado Watch 38...

Valid 031325Z - 031530Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 38 continues.

SUMMARY...A cluster of storms may continue to pose a tornado or
damaging wind threat over the next several hours from central
Alabama into west-central Georgia.

DISCUSSION...A slow-developing, but long-lived cluster of storms
continues to sporadically pose a tornado risk over central Alabama
this morning. These storms formed in association with warm/moist
advection, and persist with the aid of substantial deep-layer wind
shear and sufficient instability. 12Z soundings from the region
suggest MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg. Objective analysis further
indicates that instability decreases south of the area as
temperatures aloft are warmer. However, pockets of heating may
eventually develop later this morning and aid destabilization.
Effective SRH over 200 m2/s2 is also forecast to remain for much of
the day. As such, a brief tornado or damaging wind gusts remain
possible within this east-west corridor.

..Jewell.. 03/03/2020
 
Webberweather53 said:
If we get sufficient CAPE, I definitely think the environment could support a few isolated tornadoes despite the fact we aren’t even under a formal 2% risk from the SPC. Strong low level shear & 0-1 SRH, steep low level lapse rates (7C/km isn’t bad), and long cyclonically curved hodos like the one being shown on the HRRR can certainly support a tornado or two. Timing wise, looks like the storms will reach the US 1/I 95 corridors around 5-9pm

View attachment 36755
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I wonder if the SPC will up the threat level today for NC. They seemed to have dropped the ball last night with the Nashville tornado.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Reports of 9 dead in Nashville..I haven’t really been keeping up with this event but did SPC have anything out for Tennessee?
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Yeah I just found out literally two minutes ago that my cousin's wife's hometown had a tornado that was bad overnight on Facebook and her hometown was Nashville. The damage pictures she posted look bad.

(thankfully they are living near me, cousin is military and at Fort Gordon now)
 
Brick Tamland said:
Were they under any kind of watch when the tornado hit?
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SPC wasn't surprised...

I'd place my bet on a lot of people probably being surprised though in that area anyway. It was a late night tornado and while most probably pay attention to this while they're awake, they might not want to go to the extent of setting an alarm on their phone or have a weather radio for a possible emergency like this. Most have probably slept through many tornado watches before. It was just this fateful night that it wasn't just a tornado watch.
 
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