THIS IS FROM NWS BMX
AS OF 1400HRS 01/07/2020
A ROBUST STORM SYSTEM WITH AMPLE DYNAMICS WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. INSTABILITY VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS POSING A RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. THE RECENT RAINFALL AND ELEVATED RIVER
LEVELS WILL RAISE CONCERNS OVER POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY WITH GOOD
OVERALL GLOBAL MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND SETUP,
MUCH OF THE CRUCIAL DETAILS REMAIN TO BE RESOLVED. THE DYNAMICS ARE
QUITE STRONG WITH THIS SETUP FEATURING A 65-75 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH VERY HIGH WIND SHEAR VALUES ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES WITH SUFFICIENT VALUES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE FORECAST INSTABILITY VARIES WITH HIGHER
VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT SUFFICIENT VALUES ARE DEPICTED ACROSS
MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH THE LOWEST VALUES ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH. ALL OF THESE DETAILS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE DEFINED AND
REFINED AS WE CONTINUE TO EVALUATE NEW DATA THROUGH TIME AND AS WE
GET INTO THE 2-3 DAY TIME PERIOD WE WILL HAVE MESOSCALE INFORMATION
TO EXAMINE IN ADDITION TO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE DATA THAT IS AVAILABLE
AT THIS TIME. BOTTOM LINE IS TO EXPECT SOME ADJUSTMENTS AND FURTHER
REFINEMENTS TO THE FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER TO SATURDAY AND TO USE
THE TIME NOW TO ADJUST YOUR WEEKEND PLANS AND TO ENSURE THAT YOU
HAVE A SOLID SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY PLAN, EMERGENCY SUPPLIES AND
MULTIPLE RELIABLE WAYS TO GET EMERGENCY INFORMATION
AS OF 1400HRS 01/07/2020
A ROBUST STORM SYSTEM WITH AMPLE DYNAMICS WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. INSTABILITY VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS POSING A RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. THE RECENT RAINFALL AND ELEVATED RIVER
LEVELS WILL RAISE CONCERNS OVER POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY WITH GOOD
OVERALL GLOBAL MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND SETUP,
MUCH OF THE CRUCIAL DETAILS REMAIN TO BE RESOLVED. THE DYNAMICS ARE
QUITE STRONG WITH THIS SETUP FEATURING A 65-75 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH VERY HIGH WIND SHEAR VALUES ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES WITH SUFFICIENT VALUES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE FORECAST INSTABILITY VARIES WITH HIGHER
VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT SUFFICIENT VALUES ARE DEPICTED ACROSS
MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH THE LOWEST VALUES ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH. ALL OF THESE DETAILS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE DEFINED AND
REFINED AS WE CONTINUE TO EVALUATE NEW DATA THROUGH TIME AND AS WE
GET INTO THE 2-3 DAY TIME PERIOD WE WILL HAVE MESOSCALE INFORMATION
TO EXAMINE IN ADDITION TO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE DATA THAT IS AVAILABLE
AT THIS TIME. BOTTOM LINE IS TO EXPECT SOME ADJUSTMENTS AND FURTHER
REFINEMENTS TO THE FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER TO SATURDAY AND TO USE
THE TIME NOW TO ADJUST YOUR WEEKEND PLANS AND TO ENSURE THAT YOU
HAVE A SOLID SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY PLAN, EMERGENCY SUPPLIES AND
MULTIPLE RELIABLE WAYS TO GET EMERGENCY INFORMATION