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Poss severe threat late this week

gawxnative

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Ok so to those much more knowledgeable than I .. why did the "middle section" of the QLCS die, passing Atlanta Metro, and know is by far the most intense, while the Southern segment is now "dying out"
 

gawxnative

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Well with a total of almost 800 Wind Damage reports over Friday/Saturday this was one of the most long lived QLCS events I ve seen in the SE. Also, about the only model "fails" I noted were
1) Many kept trying to intial discrete cells ahead of the QLCS in Alabama and Georgia
2) The continuation of the strength of the system into Central and Eastern SC/NC into the overnight Saturday
3) Speed/Timing of QLCS through MS into AL and GA

Thoughts?
 

Downeastnc

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Solid couplet and tornado warning now for the storm that passed over me 30 minutes ago.
Should see some ground truth with that one I think....there was a CC drop out with it at that third from last frame when it brightened up as well but I was half asleep and screwed up saving it...

eb1f34d1-9c77-495d-a460-0df0c7c8d4c5.gif
 

Arcc

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Well with a total of almost 800 Wind Damage reports over Friday/Saturday this was one of the most long lived QLCS events I ve seen in the SE. Also, about the only model "fails" I noted were
1) Many kept trying to intial discrete cells ahead of the QLCS in Alabama and Georgia
2) The continuation of the strength of the system into Central and Eastern SC/NC into the overnight Saturday
3) Speed/Timing of QLCS through MS into AL and GA

Thoughts?
The models with the exception of the HRRR did really well in the event. The WRF-ARW was a too hot with the UH tracks, but it always is and you just take that into account. The 3km NAM did really well with tornado threat but really failed in the end with the strength of the QLCS, which is odd as it loves to come in hot as well. Very few runs had supercells ahead of the line. I think it's easy to see cells ahead the line and think supercells when the model isn't seeing them as such or the environment doesn't support it.

I can't blame the speed on the QLCS on the models because 80% or more of the time they are too slow. QLCS are notorious for surging out in front.
 

Drscottsmith

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Yep - North Central High School in Kershaw County. It’s about 7 miles north of Camden, SC where my parents live.

Significant damage to the school, football stadium, buses in parking lot.
 

DustinWx

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Did you actually get to see it. I know it was dark. I was in central even there the wind switched directions. I knew it was likely a tornado somewhere.
Nah I didn’t. Moved a bit to fast and I was about 5 miles away. Was windy and had a lot of lightning


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

BirdManDoomW

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Given this warm front has a history of producing tornadoes I would argue there is a chance tomorrow across North Carolina given the NAM’s convection output.
 
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