• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Severe Poss severe threat late this week

Starting to get concerned for Georgia, South and North Carolina.. Should remain south of Maryland. "Famous last words."
 
Here is why you cannot just equate higher surface temps to more severe weather. The models have slowly adjusted higher surface temps with the stronger WAA, but the flip side is it has also advected warmer air at 925mb and 850mb, effectively hurting both low level lapse rates and 3km Cape. So far low level lapse rates have been very well forecasted by the NAM, 3km NAM and Euro. Add in high shear and linear forcing and you have what we have right now.
 

Attachments

  • 925mb.gif
    925mb.gif
    73.9 KB · Views: 21
  • 850mb.gif
    850mb.gif
    71.5 KB · Views: 23
  • lllr (1).gif
    lllr (1).gif
    24.6 KB · Views: 23
fe27c863d5ace0b5c393a7216a5b61ce.jpg


TDS. PICKENS CO ALABAMA


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Here is why you cannot just equate higher surface temps to more severe weather. The models have slowly adjusted higher surface temps with the stronger WAA, but the flip side is it has also advected warmer air at 925mb and 850mb, effectively hurting both low level lapse rates and 3km Cape. So far low level lapse rates have been very well forecasted by the NAM, 3km NAM and Euro. Add in high shear and linear forcing and you have what we have right now.

Max heating is what it is. Can it be residual? You bet ya. That's why I'm concerned.
 
Change to abc 3340 the circulation going to pass over or right by there reform alabama camera
 
Back
Top