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My church just sent out an email survey. Our parish has over 6,000 members. They are not resuming Mass until next Sunday, but want to accomade everyone, so they are asking when you plan to come (6:00 Saturday afternoon; Sunday 8:00, 9:30, 11:00, 7:00 PM); they say that they are/will be keeping it to a minimum of attendees with distancing, and will add more Masses if enough folks want a Noon Sunday, an earlier 4:30 Saturday in addition to the 6:00 PM, or other times as well ... that IMHO that is acting responsibly ...
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Arcc said:
If the CDC is correct with their new estimated IFR of Covid, how fast does the media and Democrats pivot 180 degrees and start blaming the shut down and economic crisis on Trump?
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To be fair, even if the CFR is 0.3-0.4%, if that were to infect 70% of the American population it would deliver approximately a 600k - 1 million person death toll, so it’s still pretty gaudy potentially (granted, it’s much better than seeing millions perish). Most have figured the true fatality rate has been under 1% for some time. Of course, the difference between 0.3% and 1% could be millions of lives, so that’s still a big range.

I also found it interesting how their predicted CFR for the under 50 population was nearly 0 (0.05% for symptomatic cases, 0.03% if you include asymptomatic cases). It certainly lends credence to the argument that we should try to get the less vulnerable among us (like myself) back to work and keep those more vulnerable sheltered for now. And definitely figure out something with nursing homes...

If we could achieve herd immunity via concentrating infections among the younger population somehow, you could presumably push down the fatality rate more before achieving herd immunity and keep fatalities lowered.

Of course, averting needing herd immunity at all would be ideal, but we’ll see how that develops. Perhaps the summer weather can buy us some time while new treatments or a vaccine are quickly developed, thoug I’m not getting my hopes up for any crazy breakthroughs too soon. I do find it interesting how the growth rate of the virus in Sweden has seemingly slowed despite them not being anywhere close to what I would expect herd immunity to be.

Granted, I’m not an epidemiologist; I’m just an amateur on a weather forum. :). I am a trained economist, though, so the economic impacts of this deal are something I’m a bit more familiar with (though I’m not a macroeconomist),
 
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superjames1992 said:
To be fair, even if the CFR is 0.3-0.4%, if that were to infect 70% of the American population it would deliver approximately a 600k - 1 million person death toll, so it’s still pretty gaudy potentially (granted, it’s much barred than seeing millions perish). Most have figured the true fatality rate has been under 1% for some time. Of course, the difference between 0.3% and 1% could be millions of lives, so that’s still a big range.

I also found it interesting how their predicted CFR for the under 50 population was nearly 0 (0.05% for symptomatic cases, 0.03% if you include asymptomatic cases).

If we could achieve herd immunity via concentrating infections among the younger population somehow, you could presumably push down the fatality rate more before achieving herd immunity and keep fatalities lowered.

Of course, averting heeding herd immunity at all would be ideal, but we’ll see how that develops. I do find it interesting how the growth rate of the virus in Sweden has seemingly slowed despite them not being anywhere close to what I would expect herd immunity to be.

Granted, I’m not an epidemiologist; I’m just an amateur on a weather forum. :). I am a trained economist, though, so the economic impacts of this deal are something I’m a bit more familiar with (though I’m not a macroeconomist),
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I've seen studies that say herd immunity may be reached between 10-20% due to a substantial part of the population being either resistant or immune. I'm like you just a lay person who finds this interesting, but that would explain the consistent pattern in all countries.

The data on under 60 has been really clear since Italy and SK. I think both of them were getting a IFR of 0.2-0.6% out of this group of known cases. If you factor in the 10x as many cases as those confirmed that articles have been saying for a month or so, it matches CDC perfectly.
 
superjames1992 said:
To be fair, even if the CFR is 0.3-0.4%, if that were to infect 70% of the American population it would deliver approximately a 600k - 1 million person death toll, so it’s still pretty gaudy potentially (granted, it’s much better than seeing millions perish). Most have figured the true fatality rate has been under 1% for some time. Of course, the difference between 0.3% and 1% could be millions of lives, so that’s still a big range.

I also found it interesting how their predicted CFR for the under 50 population was nearly 0 (0.05% for symptomatic cases, 0.03% if you include asymptomatic cases). It certainly lends credence to the argument that we should try to get the less vulnerable among us (like myself) back to work and keep those more vulnerable sheltered for now. And definitely figure out something with nursing homes...

If we could achieve herd immunity via concentrating infections among the younger population somehow, you could presumably push down the fatality rate more before achieving herd immunity and keep fatalities lowered.

Of course, averting needing herd immunity at all would be ideal, but we’ll see how that develops. Perhaps the summer weather can buy us some time while new treatments or a vaccine are quickly developed, thoug I’m not getting my hopes up for any crazy breakthroughs too soon. I do find it interesting how the growth rate of the virus in Sweden has seemingly slowed despite them not being anywhere close to what I would expect herd immunity to be.

Granted, I’m not an epidemiologist; I’m just an amateur on a weather forum. :). I am a trained economist, though, so the economic impacts of this deal are something I’m a bit more familiar with (though I’m not a macroeconomist),
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I am a lawyer, with a Masters in economics, and having said that, I am totally clueless on the "right" course. I see people hurting financially; I see people hurting physically; I see the old "linear programming" approach ... and ultimately I see no clear answer ... my gut and the little brain I have says be wary of any panacea ... there has to be a mix that works and the point of equilibrium will be found/established ... but I hasten to say, that will not settle in over night ....
 
Arcc said:
If the CDC is correct with their new estimated IFR of Covid, how fast does the media and Democrats pivot 180 degrees and start blaming the shut down and economic crisis on Trump?
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They will send more infected to the nursing homes to blame on Trump. Then they will say he hyped this virus up. It’s always Trumps fault. Everything is Trumps fault. The Trumpsters are the problem also we will be told over and over.
 
Arcc said:
I've had issues with him since he was quoted in that article laughing at those worried about the economy and him saying "It will be fine." I have no problems with him trying to save lives but he boxed himself in on the economic side and he knows it.
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He did as many on here said and laughed. Both sides suffer no matter which path we take. We have to think about future and the cost. What has happened has happened.
 
Nationwide Insurance has a major/massive region-wide claims processing center here in Hogtown; it is a beautiful, perhaps a 70 acre manicured campus with thousands of employees; they are shutting the facility down; only 150 layoffs however, and those are reported to be custodial and interior maintenance only; everyone else will stay in Gainesville and work remotely ... convenient cost cutting, or does a major insurance company see something in the data the rest of us are not privy to? Just a thought ...
 
pcbjr said:
Nationwide Insurance has a major/massive region-wide claims processing center here in Hogtown; it is a beautiful, perhaps a 70 acre manicured campus with thousands of employees; they are shutting the facility down; only 150 layoffs however, and those are reported to be custodial and interior maintenance only; everyone else will stay in Gainesville and work remotely ... convenient cost cutting, or does a major insurance company see something in the data the rest of us are not privy to? Just a thought ...
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My company Allstate, said to prepare for many home office positions to transition to home too which I already do when I'm not on the road.
 
Many US states have seen LOWER infection rates after ending lockdowns that are are now destroying millions of livelihoods worldwide, JP Morgan study claims
By Tim Stickings For Mailonline08:55 EDT 22 May 2020 , updated 11:56 EDT 22 May 2020
 
Pres Trump Just Outfoxed Schumer and Pelosi in His Reply to Flag-Lowering Letter
Posted at 8:45 pm on May 21, 2020 by Becca Lower
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Early on Thursday morning, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) dropped what Democrats probably thought was a brilliant move on the White House: a letter requesting that President Donald Trump order flags be flown at half staff on public buildings once the United States death toll for COVID-19 reaches 100,000 people.

As RedState’s Mike Miller shared in a piece Thursday night, there were a limited number of reasons why the Democrat leadership would send a missive like that. He opined that they could, in earnest, be trying to honor Americans who’ve succumbed to the Wuhan coronavirus. The most unlikely of the three scenarios he laid out, if I’m being honest. The other two – that ol’ Chuck and Nancy are trying to use dead bodies to hurt the president politically – seems right up their alley.
Now, Pres. Trump has tweeted out an answer that manages to outfox Schumer and Pelosi in the process:


Donald J. Trump

✔@realDonaldTrump
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1263600794290417670

I will be lowering the flags on all Federal Buildings and National Monuments to half-staff over the next three days in memory of the Americans we have lost to the coronovirus
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Donald J. Trump

✔@realDonaldTrump
· May 21, 2020

I will be lowering the flags on all Federal Buildings and National Monuments to half-staff over the next three days in memory of the Americans we have lost to the CoronaVirus....

Donald J. Trump

✔@realDonaldTrump

....On Monday, the flags will be at half-staff in honor of the men and women in our Military who have made the Ultimate Sacrifice for our Nation.
https://twitter.com/intent/like?tweet_id=1263600798056906752
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He wrote:
I will be lowering the flags on all Federal Buildings and National Monuments to half-staff over the next three days in memory of the Americans we have lost to the CoronaVirus. On Monday, the flags will be at half-staff in honor of the men and women in our Military who have made the Ultimate Sacrifice for our Nation.
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A quick glance at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) website shows that, as of Thursday, May 21, the U.S. has suffered 93,061 deaths from the Chinese coronavirus — up about 1,400 from Wednesday. So, it looks like the president, instead of playing a political numbers game like Pelosi and Schumer seem to be, is reminding Americans what this weekend is about: honoring Americans, period.
 
NCSNOW said:
Many US states have seen LOWER infection rates after ending lockdowns that are are now destroying millions of livelihoods worldwide, JP Morgan study claims
By Tim Stickings For Mailonline08:55 EDT 22 May 2020 , updated 11:56 EDT 22 May 2020
Click to expand...
But the suicides and poverty and homelessness and depression are saving lives.
 
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