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Wintry Palm Sunday NC and VA Winter Storm

Webberweather53

Webberweather53

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Desert Southwest ?
Given this is only 3 days out now and there’s pretty stout NWP consensus I think it’s time to break out the thread for this event, if busts big deal, most of us have been spoiled beyond belief this winter and esp in March and this storm is just icing on the cake. Let’s reel this one in!
 
The SREFs didn’t look too hot for GSO and RDU last night and neither did the NAM near truncation as well as the CMC. Certainly was nice to see the crappiest models not completely on board this far out, that’s usually a good sign.
 
The 0z UKMET is really suppressed, along/north of the heaviest axis of precipitation stands the best chance for accumulating snow/sleet here. Even though the Triangle and Triad are currently favored, I wouldn't completely go to sleep on this even as far south as Charlotte and Fayetteville if you end up in the heaviest band of precipitation and/or the CAD builds in stronger/faster than forecast, it's a long shot atm but I think much of central NC and VA is fair game until we begin to narrow this down a little more.
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Brick Tamland said:
I'm all about having a fun time.
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This is the kind of storm that has really high bust potential even more so than our last few storms. Whoever ends up underneath the heaviest axis of precipitation Saturday night and Sunday morning is probably going to changeover to heavy wet snow and you're going to be stuck underneath that band for a very long time, which will maximize accumulations. This bonafide clipper event in March 2010 shows what can happen if you hit the sweet spot like those from GSO-Siler City-Dunn did.
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SimeonNC said:
Good or bad sign?

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Really doesn't mean a whole lot in this instance but it shifts the heavier precipitation timing closer to 12z which is favorable for wintry weather in north-central NC. The more noteworthy difference between this run and the 12z is the shift north of the heaviest axis of snow over the Dakotas, MN, and IA.
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Hope this is another case of things looking better as we get closer.
 
The models are putting us out of our misery quickly with this one. 12z runs are terrible for wintry weather around here.
 
Still have 48 hours to go. The runs have been getting better and better. Not jumping because of one run now.
 
Rain Cold said:
The models are putting us out of our misery quickly with this one. 12z runs are terrible for wintry weather around here.
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It's really not that far off from wintry weather, if the rates are heavy enough in this frontogenetical band in the late overnight on Saturday into Sunday, precipitation will changeover to snow. Surface temps are certainly going to be questionable right up to the event given that p-type will be determined by the precipitation rate, strength of the developing CAD dome, and amount of dynamical cooling that's generated by this sheared out s/w all of which NWP models can't adequately resolve. It's not as simple as "oh look the models all show rain now so it's automatically over" and vis versa.

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Webberweather53 said:
It's really not that far off from wintry weather, if the rates are heavy enough in this frontogenetical band in the late overnight on Saturday into Sunday, precipitation will changeover to snow. Surface temps are certainly going to be questionable right up to the event given that p-type will be determined by the precipitation rate, strength of the developing CAD dome, and amount of dynamical cooling that's generated by this sheared out s/w all of which NWP models can't adequately resolve. It's not as simple as "oh look the models all show rain now so it's automatically over" and vis versa.

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I don't disagree. I don't like to see all of the models essentially backing off as we move in, though. That's a red flag for sure, if it continues.
 
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