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Pattern Outside of the SE thread

The players are certainly there. Temps are a bit problematic for Chicagoland verbatim though a tick colder than 06z.


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Got GFS and Euro agreement! What can go wrongC008BF84-DC79-4259-944A-64CDA5026EBA.png7834867E-9B2C-4ABF-85F5-C0005015F933.jpeg
 
starsfan69 said:
Any changes?
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Models definitely not as good today but I think its too early to tell. I have seen other mets talking about winter weather now but we'll have to see where things stand after the weekend. Tbh I'm still waiting to see if it really rains Sunday and Monday. Tulsa hasn't measured rain all month and yeah it could easily just be dry cold again

The only thing that's clear is it should turn much colder after Thanksgiving at least for a couple days. Will it be like Halloween and just really cold or something more remains to be seen
 
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This event warming up rapidly. We could be N to AN by the next few runs


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Only slight differences in the Euro and GFSF48C7031-7119-4EC1-8AD5-A390EA0AD0C4.pngFC9C1126-6429-4991-A1C7-C333329F4E28.png
 
Itryatgolf said:
It usually gives us our only hope when the other models don't show anything but typically it's good with shallow arctic air and ice storms
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I mean I'm not saying it's right but it does show there's still a lot of possibilities for next weekend. The euro and GFS have had some massive fails even closer in time than this before. Still way too early to draw any conclusions. Arctic air is notoriously a struggle

Yeah I'm not holding my breath and fully expecting dry cold but there's definitely at least a chance of something else
 
First rain in 19 days today! Drought begets drought! ?
This winter is toast! Probably followed by flooding early summer, like 93’
 
Some run to run consistency giving northern Illinois a low accumulation event this weekend. Will be nice before spending a good chunk of December AN…which will also be nice.


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Tarheel1 said:
First rain in 19 days today! Drought begets drought! ?
This winter is toast! Probably followed by flooding early summer, like 93’
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Yeah I miss when El Nino was wet and stormy here.... Tulsa sitting at barely a quarter of inch of rain in what is supposed to be one of our wettest months

It's gonna take a heck of a flip to make this winter good here
 
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I’m Thankful for the LR NAM ??AC004BC7-68B8-4E35-AD79-2A5F3A0CEC95.png43FD5B7D-6DBA-4FC1-9965-54B91C1CD537.png
 
If that storm in Kansas is anything like some of the models show ?

I'm definitely favoring a big winter here if it pans out
 
Brent said:
If that storm in Kansas is anything like some of the models show ?

I'm definitely favoring a big winter here if it pans out
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I forecasted 18” for you , I think!
 
Snowlover87 said:
no snow for you this winter
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Lmao tbh if it was later in the winter and we didn't have snow yet I'd probably drive up there but I'm telling myself it's November and just the fact it's there is big news. Like they never had a big snowstorm last year at all

Honestly I don't need a 15-20 inch winter I just want a couple good storms and I'll be good
 
Brent said:
Lmao tbh if it was later in the winter and we didn't have snow yet I'd probably drive up there but I'm telling myself it's November and just the fact it's there is big news. Like they never had a big snowstorm last year at all

Honestly I don't need a 15-20 inch winter I just want a couple good storms and I'll be good
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The nws out of south central and southern KS are acting like this snow is very minor
 
Heavy flurries currently! Appetizer
NAM gives me 12-15 hours of straight snow! 19FD0950-640F-4068-8358-7A71FF9C223D.png4EA6C762-CA8C-4400-800D-BF84AE07348F.png
 
ATLwxfan said:
Everything from a trace to 3 inches on the table for western suburbs of Chicago.


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Chicago has an awesome climate. I haven't been there in years but always had a great time.
 
ATLwxfan said:
Everything from a trace to 3 inches on the table for western suburbs of Chicago.


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I just had a chance to read the NWS Chicago afternoon discussion and they mentioned that short range models are starting to show some FGEN forced bands setting up that may cause it to overperform.
 
Chazwin said:
I just had a chance to read the NWS Chicago afternoon discussion and they mentioned that short range models are starting to show some FGEN forced bands setting up that may cause it to overperform.
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In my short time here it seems there is a theme when it comes to forecasting here. It’s all about the mesoscale models here. The operational and ensemble LR models are notoriously bad here.


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Buckle up buttercup…

Models have again trended upward in QPF with this system and
accordingly snowfall amounts have nudged up another tick. Thermal
profiles support snow ratios generally in the 12-13:1 range
through the overnight hours with this system, with decreasing
snowflake quality expected in the afternoon as temperatures warm
and ascent through the colder reaches of the thermal profile
diminishes. The going forecast snowfall totals has 2-3" generally
west of I-55 and the Chicago metro with 1-2" expected north of a
Paxton to Valparaiso line, and up to an inch for areas south.
There continues to be a "streaky" fgen signal in the guidance
coincident with modest EPV reductions indicative of at least some
potential for slantwise parcel accelerations. Taken together, this
suggests brief periods of higher snowfall rates (0.5" per hour)
are possible but will be rather ephemeral for any one location.
Thus suspect there could be narrow ribbons of locally higher
amounts than advertised depending on where these set up.

Given model trends, wouldn`t be surprised if another uptick in
snowfall amounts becomes warranted, but confidence wasn`t high
enough to do so with this update. Additionally, if a more robust
fgen band is able to set up, there could be a localized minimum in
amounts on the northern edge. Nevertheless, be prepared for
slippery travel conditions overnight tonight through Saturday
morning.


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Seeing reports of a foot in Kansas ?

If this is any sign of how the winter is gonna be... I mean there are some really really big analogs floating around
 
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