RVD
Meteorology Student
Lol is that lake effect?
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Ostrich December
- Thread starter SETNwx
- Start date
This is it. The look we beg for but rarely get. Can we slow the flow down enough for overrunning if that piece of Baja energy were to kick?
I decided to be spontaneous. Here are the maps from January 16-18, 2018. An example where the WAR works. @wxdaniel @Myfrotho704_
GFS with back to back fish storms down the Carolina coastline this run. You like to see it at this lead. Cold air
RVD
Meteorology Student
Not just saying it because that finger of precip looks vaguely right on the 6hrly map... the setup actually makes sense for it, and I know it's possible to get a little bit off of Kerr lake. Winds are likely strengthening with that developing low, and oriented in roughly the right direction (keep in mind the precip is a 6-hr average that isobars shown are at the end of). And it's a big cold push, especially at 850 mb (the important height for lake effect) while Kerr lake would still be pretty warm. Just with such a small lake/fetch, it seems absurd to get such a long band.
The sounding at 288 shows it better actually- look at those northerly winds and lift concentrated in the lower levels- that's definitely a lake effect signal. The cloud isn't reaching the DGZ here, but I suspect it does between this frame and the next (by which point 850s have cooled more but the column has desaturated). Looks like a similar profile extends all the way down to around Johnston County.
Anyway, just nerding out over a pretty neat phenomenon to see the model spit out. It'd take some pretty exact conditions to produce such a notable event here.
Lots of anafronts on the gefs.... I’ll pass
Upcoming timeframe should favor west of the Apps if anything
John1122
Member
It ended up being a dang megastorm, especially for the western 2/3rds of Tennessee but it got North Miss, North Alabama and North Ga too. Unfortunately I wouldn't even believe it if it were the Euro 72 hours out.
CMC on TT is slow, only out to 54.
Only if there was legit cold 
Smh, this is so close 
O Wunderground my beloved Wunderground.. it's been a decade since the last white christmas:
Thursday Night 12/24
39% / 1.2 in
Mostly cloudy. Rain and snow showers in the evening. A few snow showers late. Low 29F. Winds NW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precip 40%. Snow accumulating 1 to 3 inches.
Thursday Night 12/24
39% / 1.2 in
Mostly cloudy. Rain and snow showers in the evening. A few snow showers late. Low 29F. Winds NW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precip 40%. Snow accumulating 1 to 3 inches.
Anafronts blow, but work for areas west 
This is legit cold for daytime in December, Impressive 
John1122
Member
They work here okay west of the Apps. I've gotten a 4 inch and 3 inch event from them the last two Decembers. I believe the one last year spilled over the Apps and gave snow across the Carolinas as well but I could be misremembering.
Thread time? 
