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Pattern Oppressive Ornery Obstinate Opposite October

tennessee storm said:
i dont understand the big fuss and excitement about the models going into next week and just beyond... jesus... its october just now be barely going into november.... if we get these looks in late december to february.... game on
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Because we haven't seen blocking like this in years, who cares what month it is
 
ForsythSnow said:
Also looks like a good block. Why can't we get this in December and January and February too?
gfs_z500a_namer_26.png
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Because that's when we want and need it too. :(
 
Nomanslandva said:
Basically we have Feb 20th sun angle and getting better every day. Take the cold pattern when you can get it and hope it locks in. GEFS is below normal for the run after Tuesday. Ready to be done running AC!!!
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yeah but you dont have february 20th type snow cover either.... just waste to me... less a very slim chance this can hold on to winter months
 
I know some folks don't want to hear this but I do think that global warming is one of the nontrivial factors in addition to the pattern. We may have to get used to this the rest of our lives though I'm still holding out hopes the anticipated grand solar minimum will reverse a decent portion of the warming. We'll see.
 
GaWx said:
I know some folks don't want to hear this but I do think that global warming is one of the nontrivial factors in addition to the pattern. We may have to get used to this the rest of our lives though I'm still holding out hopes the anticipated grand solar minimum will reverse a decent portion of the warming. We'll see.
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I'm not at all really a believer in global warming but everytime we have neverending heat or warmest months ever etc. it makes me wonder. I mean at first it was el nino or whatever but the excuses can't go on forever. The last good winter was 3 years ago here(ironically my first winter in Dallas lol). I know some places in AL/GA haven't even had a good winter since before I left, its just amazing.

The cold always shows up in the long range and then never verifies etc. I would love nothing more than to change our fortunes here, but I'm kind of believe it when I see i now.
 
Lol, everyone is so funny on here. Its the south!! we go by the southern rules when it comes to winter. All, most models have a nice blocking in our future as of now, and has been showing this for a while now. Sure things can change, but im very happy to see this this early. Few years ago we waited for the cold to come around Dec/Jan and that winter sucked as well. So if we start getting cold now than we deserve it. When you live in the south, you get what you get and hope for the best.
 
Brent said:
I'm not at all really a believer in global warming but everytime we have neverending heat or warmest months ever etc. it makes me wonder. I mean at first it was el nino or whatever but the excuses can't go on forever. The last good winter was 3 years ago here(ironically my first winter in Dallas lol). I know some places in AL/GA haven't even had a good winter since before I left, its just amazing.

The cold always shows up in the long range and then never verifies etc. I would love nothing more than to change our fortunes here, but I'm kind of believe it when I see i now.
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I strongly believe that the globe has warmed, but I'm still not comfortable with accepting that it is definitely mostly due to higher CO2. I'm still open minded to the possibility that natural cycles are also a major factor, especially the sun. (See that thread if interested.) That's one reason I'm hopeful that an expected grand solar minimum will lead to global cooling getting going soon. We'll see!
 
accu35 said:
Lol, everyone is so funny on here. Its the south!! we go by the southern rules when it comes to winter. All, most models have a nice blocking in our future as of now, and has been showing this for a while now. Sure things can change, but im very happy to see this this early. Few years ago we waited for the cold to come around Dec/Jan and that winter sucked as well. So if we start getting cold now than we deserve it. When you live in the south, you get what you get and hope for the best.
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Actually, I've already stated that I think that a cold SE November would help rather than hurt the chance of a cold SE DJF. I'm all for a cold Nov if we can get it. Bring it on!
 
GaWx said:
Actually, I've already stated that I think that a cold SE November would help rather than hurt the chance of a cold SE DJF. I'm all for a cold Nov if we can get it. Bring it on!
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Me too. Thanks as always Larry, keeping us updated on things especially with the ENSO.
 
I'm just happy to see normal to below temps showing and actual blocking. If it doesn't pan out then so be it but after the last 2 winters at least there's something. I've been on the warm winter train all year but I think it's one of those warm winter's that may be offset by a blocking period or 2 that ctually produce. I think 01-02 was that way here. Got a foot in early January, I had completely forgotten the rest of the winter was garbage

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
GaWx said:
I know some folks don't want to hear this but I do think that global warming is one of the nontrivial factors in addition to the pattern. We may have to get used to this the rest of our lives though I'm still holding out hopes the anticipated grand solar minimum will reverse a decent portion of the warming. We'll see.
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Depends on what you define as "decent" because the median reversal in mean global temperature directly attributable to solar forcing in the literature is on the order of 0.1C from a grand solar minimum (which includes top down impacts from the stratosphere, dealing with variance in UV radiation which exhibits more pronounced changes from cycle-cycle vs solar irradiance), with at most 0.3C cooling when considerations for model physics, resolution, observational biases, etc are taken into account. Global temperatures have increased approximately 0.8-1C since the 1870s and about 0.15-0.2C per decade since the mid 1970s, which means a grand minimum at the very best would halt the long term warming only momentarily unless it manages to couple w/ other forcings (such as volcanoes)... If it were to happen today global temperatures would be set back to what they were during the 1980s... Meh.
 
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SD said:
I'm just happy to see normal to below temps showing and actual blocking. If it doesn't pan out then so be it but after the last 2 winters at least there's something. I've been on the warm winter train all year but I think it's one of those warm winter's that may be offset by a blocking period or 2 that ctually produce. I think 01-02 was that way here. Got a foot in early January, I had completely forgotten the rest of the winter was garbage

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
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One things for sure, gfs has been strong with this blocking for a good while now. You could be right, this still could be of "warm" winter with offsets blocking with great potential which im fine with. Or this could very well be a all around "cold"ish winter, which im very fine with that to.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Yeah, the GFS has blocking lasting for a bit and a good shot at weeks of cool weather while the Euro is meh, but has a tropical system, and the CMC has crazy blocking and cold coming beyond the end of the run.
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This is a handy little tool (it's in Wiki, btw) and if you go back to its main page, there are other multi-member models to look at.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSTDEP2WIDE_6z/tloop.html

(12 Z today is not up yet)
 
Winter weather doesn't concern me at this point (not just for my purposes), it's just cool to see that we get a taste of much cooler temps and it's possible heading into November that we get a taste that's even colder than that.
 
tennessee storm said:
i dont understand the big fuss and excitement about the models going into next week and just beyond... jesus... its october just now be barely going into november.... if we get these looks in late december to february.... game on
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Probably because it’s been a few years since we’ve had a good cold shot like this one in October. Add that to the fact that last winter was the worst for most on this board. I don’t think anyone is realistically thinking we will get snow in the next few weeks but that doesn’t mean we can’t get excited for below normal temps for a change.
 
olhausen said:
Probably because it’s been a few years since we’ve had a good cold shot like this one in October. Add that to the fact that last winter was the worst for most on this board. I don’t think anyone is realistically thinking we will get snow in the next few weeks but that doesn’t mean we can’t get excited for below normal temps for a change.
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Plus this forum discusses wx all year long, regardless of the pattern. In addition, history suggests there is a MODEST correlation of November's temperature to the subsequent DJF in the SE US.
 
Weather underground has Huntsvile with snow showers next Saturday night LOL!!
 
ForsythSnow said:
Lol here too! It's the entire Weather Channel family showing it at 50%.
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I guess they think that theres a possibility, the rain could briefly change over with a sharp cold front? Idk lol.
 
My predicted 2 day rain event , is now not even 10 hours! :(
Starts after sunrise and ends by 3-4 pm! It's gonna have to rain awfully hard to get my 3+ inches of rain!
#BUMMER
 
The 18Z GEFS is chilly through the 11-15 day period for the SE US. The 12Z EPS isn't cold but it is cool enough with a weaker trough centered near the Mississippi valley in the means. I'd sure love to break the unprecedented 21 month long warmer than normal streak at SAV!!
 
Heavy precip having a hard time getting past southern 1/3 of MS and AL, shockingly enough!
 
Well, looks like a chance of severe storms around here tomorrow. And a friend who lives in Kannapolis posted their forecast on Facebook that showed a chance of winter mix Halloween night. Now that would be crazy.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Well, looks like a chance of severe storms around here tomorrow. And a friend who lives in Kannapolis posted their forecast on Facebook that showed a chance of winter mix Halloween night. Now that would be crazy.
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Looks like a decent setup for a wind dmg event
 
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