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Pattern Oppressive Ornery Obstinate Opposite October

GaWx said:
I agree that the correlation is rather weak (noting what Phil just posted) as I've even said, but if given the choice, I'd prefer Nov be cool rather than warm for two reasons: 1. I'd enjoy November, itself, more if if were cool no matter what the winter shall bring. 2. It is a weak correlation rather than no correlation.
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The point is the correlation may exist simply by random chance and may not be truly representative of physical processes that modulates and links such phenomena and observations... Henceforth, verbatim it's not worth hanging your hat on at all.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The point is the correlation may exist simply by random chance and may not be truly representative of physical processes that modulates and links such phenomena and observations... Henceforth, verbatim it's not worth hanging your hat on at all.
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Of course this is probably good news for the SE US as this November is starting to lean above normal barring a very impressive late month comeback
 
Webberweather53 said:
The point is the correlation may exist simply by random chance and may not be truly representative of physical processes that modulates and links such phenomena and observations... Henceforth, verbatim it's not worth hanging your hat on at all.
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I'm not "hanging my hat" on anything. Not even close. And if the winter should happen to be mild, everything will be fine from my perspective. Any winter wx, even mild, is far better than any summer wx imo.
 
Nothing about weather is textbook anymore! :(
 
GaWx said:
I'm not "hanging my hat" on anything. Not even close. And if the winter should happen to be mild, everything will be fine from my perspective. Any winter wx, even mild, is far better than any summer wx imo.
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Huh? I'm not trying to be mean or anything but you definitely have contradicted yourself here...
"This ugly La Nina pattern in early November is not what I wanted to see at all for chilly winter chances ("November the winter will remember" saying and also stats I've seen)"

"2. It is a weak correlation rather than no correlation."
 
Webberweather53 said:
Huh?
"This ugly La Nina pattern in early November is not what I wanted to see at all for chilly winter chances ("November the winter will remember" saying and also stats I've seen)"

"2. It is a weak correlation rather than no correlation."
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No, I'm not "hanging my hat" on it. That means "to depend or rely on something". You're reading too much into what I'm saying.
 
GaWx said:
No, I'm not "hanging my hat" on it. That means "to depend or rely on something". You're reading too much into what I'm saying.
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Lol no I'm not, to say that's not what I want to see at all in the first statement definitely says you were banking pretty heavily on early November for revealing the winter pattern... Anyway, forget about it. The what happens in November winter will remember statement was bogus and we should move on...
 
Today was probably one of the first times I've ever seen JB even so as make a post on Wxbell in advance of the winter that was exclusively dedicated to a warm winter analog (2005-06)... It was created wrt the QBO/Solar activity and its impacts on MJO amplitude and behavior (which I was made aware of last year at the AMS conference in January)... The current EQBO/low solar configuration (as i mentioned a week or so ago) is conducive to generally high MJO amplification because it decreases the on-equatorial, upper tropospheric static stability and makes the upper level wind shear more favorable for large-scale moist convection...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Lol no I'm not, to say that's not what I want to see at all in the first statement definitely says you were banking pretty heavily on early November for revealing the winter pattern... Anyway, forget about it. The what happens in November winter will remember statement was bogus and we should move on...
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You're still misinterpeting my thoughts. If I somehow had the magical powers to control it for winter prospects, themselves, I'd choose cool over mild for November for even just the weak correlation. For similar reasons, if Nov were to be warm, that doesn't in itself lead me to think the winter has a better chance to be cold. But at the same time, none of this means I'm "banking pretty heavily on it" to reveal the winter pattern either as it is only a weak correlation. Sometimes your word choice isn't the best. Sometimes mine isn't.

It is more like this. I'll make up some numbers to illustrate. Let's say that I'm thinking that a cold November means a 25% chance for a cold DJF. Then I might think that a warm November means a 15% chance for a cold winter. No "hat hanging" but I'd clearly rather see a cold November than a warm one for the not as small chance for a cold winter.
 
GaWx said:
You're still misinterpeting my thoughts. If I somehow had the magical powers to control it for winter prospects, themselves, I'd choose cool over mild for November for even just the weak correlation. For similar reasons, if Nov were to be warm, that doesn't in itself lead me to think the winter has a better chance to be cold. But at the same time, none of this means I'm "banking pretty heavily on it" to reveal the winter pattern either as it is only a weak correlation. Sometimes your word choice isn't the best. Sometimes mine isn't.

It is more like this. I'll make up some numbers to illustrate. Let's say that I'm thinking that a cold November means a 25% chance for a cold DJF. Then I might think that a warm November means a 15% chance for a cold winter. No "hat hanging" but I'd clearly rather see a cold November than a warm one for the not as small chance for a cold winter.
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Yes, your word choice wasn't very good... By me saying, "hang your hat at all" implies that you'd rather see one result over the other even if they aren't meaningful, which is clearly what you're doing here. In a general sense hanging your hat on something does imply that you'd lean heavily on one option over the other, but I purposely put "at all" at the end to generalize this to leaning towards one option or the other to any degree (which in this case is wrt November temps >>> SE US DJF temps). I would too but as I alluded to earlier does this really portend anything meaningful whatsoever if the results aren't significant at all. For example, the reality could actually be that a warm November is more favorable to a cold winter in the SE US, the random variation imposed by the historical record may not reflect this simply by random chance...
 
I love this "hanging hats" arguments, keep em coming:D
 
GaWx said:
You're still misinterpeting my thoughts. If I somehow had the magical powers to control it for winter prospects, themselves, I'd choose cool over mild for November for even just the weak correlation. For similar reasons, if Nov were to be warm, that doesn't in itself lead me to think the winter has a better chance to be cold. But at the same time, none of this means I'm "banking pretty heavily on it" to reveal the winter pattern either as it is only a weak correlation. Sometimes your word choice isn't the best. Sometimes mine isn't.

It is more like this. I'll make up some numbers to illustrate. Let's say that I'm thinking that a cold November means a 25% chance for a cold DJF. Then I might think that a warm November means a 15% chance for a cold winter. No "hat hanging" but I'd clearly rather see a cold November than a warm one for the not as small chance for a cold winter.
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It also really comes down to a matter of interpretation of the historical record. I think you're viewing it too strictly, for every set of bgd climate states, there's a large range of potential solutions, what we see over the record is only one deterministic solution, equivalent to a deterministic model run and it's concomitant ensemble
 
accu35 said:
I love this "hanging hats" arguments, keep em coming:D
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I appreciate you enjoying our "hanging hats" discussion, but I'm now hanging my hat on us not keeping it coming because I think Webb and I agree that's enough for now. ;)

Besides if we get the mild winter some are forecasting, we may not even need our hats!
 
NWMSGuy said:
What type of snowpack would we need to see from our Northern states to have any meaningful impact on our southeastern weather? Wasn’t sure how plausible that was, especially in a Nina year.
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The snowpack would have to be across the Ohio River, down towards the Tennessee River and towards the Plains for the snowpack to have an impact on the southeastern states.

Snowpack helps keep the temperatures from moderating. Overall, the snowpack doesn't have a significant impact on the weather (does not affect the weather patterns.)

Sent from my SM-J327T1 using Tapatalk
 
Webberweather53 said:
Today was probably one of the first times I've ever seen JB even so as make a post on Wxbell in advance of the winter that was exclusively dedicated to a warm winter analog (2005-06)... It was created wrt the QBO/Solar activity and its impacts on MJO amplitude and behavior (which I was made aware of last year at the AMS conference in January)... The current EQBO/low solar configuration (as i mentioned a week or so ago) is conducive to generally high MJO amplification because it decreases the on-equatorial, upper tropospheric static stability and makes the upper level wind shear more favorable for large-scale moist convection...
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That's actually refreshing to me for JB to do that for a change, but it of course remains to be seen where JB goes from here and how much weight he gives that season. What's tricky is that DJF 2005-6 came in much more like the average strong El Nino rather than La Nina! Also, correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't he already issue a preliminary forecast that is La Ninaish and near the exact opposite of the 2005-6 pattern? Fwwi, Nov of 2005 was warm in the SE and in most of the country.
 
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GaWx said:
I appreciate you enjoying our "hanging hats" discussion, but I'm now hanging my hat on us not keeping it coming because I think Webb and I agree that's enough for now. ;)

Besides if we get the mild winter some are forecasting, we may not even need our hats!
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... and I thought my little post earlier today about a warm November 2010 might cause some reaction ... :eek:
 
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