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Pattern Oppressive Ornery Obstinate Opposite October

Mr. Golf said:
We need amplification in the Pacific, otherwise we will torch!!! A jet from west to east won't get job done :(
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if the SER isn't crazy, we can still maintain seasonal temps to slightly above.. nothing suggests torch yet. (crosses fingers) Plus Canada is going into the deep freeze.
 
stormcentral said:
Someone explain why models keep shifting Invest 93L over Central America then back towards the Florida straits
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total guess, because I don't know ---- really.. but maybe it's the uncertainty of timing of this weekend's huge trough in the east.
 
Yes but most GEFS 00z models take it over into the Pacific. Theres another invest in the pacific i know but noticed shifting back and fourth past few runs and was just curious as to why. Nam shifted further south missing Florida
 
Textbook NINA pattern will rear its ugly head in most of the first half of November as the Alaskan ridge (as usual) retrogrades towards far eastern Siberia, and will be replaced by a large-scale trough over the Canadian Rockies and Pacific NW... Should set up a very active storm track in between over the MS, Tennessee, and OH valley into the Great Lakes that will be superimposed onto a stronger than normal, elongated baroclinic zone with a mild-very mild pattern over the southeastern states. We're going to need a massive turn around late month to get us even back to normal (unlikely)... Another above normal month temperature-wise likely incoming...
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Webberweather53 said:
Textbook NINA pattern will rear its ugly head in most of the first half of November as the Alaskan ridge (as usual) retrogrades towards far eastern Siberia, and will be replaced by a large-scale trough over the Canadian Rockies and Pacific NW... Should set up a very active storm track in between over the MS, Tennessee, and OH valley into the Great Lakes that will be superimposed onto a stronger than normal, elongated baroclinic zone with a mild-very mild pattern over the southeastern states. We're going to need a massive turn around late month to get us even back to normal (unlikely)... Another above normal month temperature-wise likely incoming...
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Welp, i guess that is that.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Textbook NINA pattern will rear its ugly head in most of the first half of November as the Alaskan ridge (as usual) retrogrades towards far eastern Siberia, and will be replaced by a large-scale trough over the Canadian Rockies and Pacific NW... Should set up a very active storm track in between over the MS, Tennessee, and OH valley into the Great Lakes that will be superimposed onto a stronger than normal, elongated baroclinic zone with a mild-very mild pattern over the southeastern states. We're going to need a massive turn around late month to get us even back to normal (unlikely)... Another above normal month temperature-wise likely incoming...
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Euro is showing that, gfs isnt pretty in the LR, but cooler than the Euro. Maybe we can meet in the middle and hope for the best second half of November. As long as we get our cold in December with winterstorm chances then im good with that. You never know models could flip by tomorrow if they wanted to, but i wouldn't bet on it, LOL!!
 
Personally, I don't mind the look for November. So long as DJF end up Normal/Below.
;):cool:
 
Webberweather53 said:
Textbook NINA pattern will rear its ugly head in most of the first half of November as the Alaskan ridge (as usual) retrogrades towards far eastern Siberia, and will be replaced by a large-scale trough over the Canadian Rockies and Pacific NW... Should set up a very active storm track in between over the MS, Tennessee, and OH valley into the Great Lakes that will be superimposed onto a stronger than normal, elongated baroclinic zone with a mild-very mild pattern over the southeastern states. We're going to need a massive turn around late month to get us even back to normal (unlikely)... Another above normal month temperature-wise likely incoming...
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This ugly La Nina pattern in early November is not what I wanted to see at all for chilly winter chances ("November the winter will remember" saying and also stats I've seen) but there's still hope for a change for the 2nd half of November only because that is beyond the range of the two week models.

Regardless and no matter what lies ahead for this winter. I'm just glad summer wx is finally over and I can enjoy being outdoors without sweating profusely. Even a warm winter like the last one (which I still don't expect because it is highly unlikely based on stats) would be way, way better than any summer ever can be. No matter what, it is good to try to "enjoy the wx as it is the only wx you get" as one famous met likes to say though that is difficult in summer!
 
EV_WS said:
Personally, I don't mind the look for November. So long as DJF end up Normal/Below.
;):cool:
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December has the best chance out of the three to end up below normal based on NINA climatological progression, chances for a stereotypical blowtorch in February could skew the DJFM mean above-well above normal even if a majority of the 4 months are cool or seasonable...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Textbook NINA pattern will rear its ugly head in most of the first half of November as the Alaskan ridge (as usual) retrogrades towards far eastern Siberia, and will be replaced by a large-scale trough over the Canadian Rockies and Pacific NW... Should set up a very active storm track in between over the MS, Tennessee, and OH valley into the Great Lakes that will be superimposed onto a stronger than normal, elongated baroclinic zone with a mild-very mild pattern over the southeastern states. We're going to need a massive turn around late month to get us even back to normal (unlikely)... Another above normal month temperature-wise likely incoming...
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Is this were January id ban you for all that ugly talk. Luck for you it's October
 
As mild as early Nov is looking, it could be a lot warmer just like last year was. KATL is progged to have highs averaging in the low 70s (where the muggy LOWS were just over 2 weeks ago) and lows averaging in the low 50s 11/1-4 or about 3 above normal. Last year, KATL averaged in the low 80s for highs and low 60s for lows for that period or 13 warmer than normal!

Check out 10/27-31: last year KATL averaged 85 for a high and 59 for a low or 72 for the mean. This year that period is progged to have highs average 63 and lows 42 for a mean of only 52.5, which is nearly 20 F colder!

Edited for typo.
 
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GaWx said:
As mild as early Nov is looking, it could be a lot warmer just like last year was. KATL is progged to have highs averaging in the low 70s (where the muggy LOWS were just over 2 weeks ago) and lows averaging in the low 50s 11/1-4 or about 3 above normal. Last year, KATL averaged in the low 80s for highs and low 60s for lows for that period or 13 warmer than normal!

Check out 10/27-31: last year KATL averaged 85 for a high and 59 for a low or 72 for the mean. This year that period is progged to have highs average 63 and lows 42 for a mean of only 52.5, which is nearly 20 F colder!

Edited for typo.
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This is a microcosmic view, limited only to Gainesville, FL, but hopefully it sends a message of hope to anyone despairing about the early November heat the models are showing.
The record high here for this date was 92º in October 2010.
November 2010 only had three days in the 60's; a few were in the 70's, but most were in the 80's. Well above normal.
December turned on a dime and was the coldest December on record for MBY - 16 freeze nights with many in the low 20's. There were also 6 other near-freeze nights, (35º - 33º) to boot.
So, with no crystal ball and not in any way suggesting a repeat, might I humbly suggest that it is not worth the angst to worry about mid-November models at this juncture.
Just sayin', FWIW ... :confused:
 
Early November was much worse last year than what this year is looking like. Honestly what I've looked at makes me wonder if the averages need to be bumped up, as things hold in the low-mid 70s (outside of a day or two) without much adjustment without a cold front to drop things. Above average, but is it really...
 
GaWx said:
This ugly La Nina pattern in early November is not what I wanted to see at all for chilly winter chances ("November the winter will remember" saying and also stats I've seen) but there's still hope for a change for the 2nd half of November only because that is beyond the range of the two week models.

Regardless and no matter what lies ahead for this winter. I'm just glad summer wx is finally over and I can enjoy being outdoors without sweating profusely. Even a warm winter like the last one (which I still don't expect because it is highly unlikely based on stats) would be way, way better than any summer ever can be. No matter what, it is good to try to "enjoy the wx as it is the only wx you get" as one famous met likes to say though that is difficult in summer!
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JB occasionally will take advantage of this statement to tout a cold winter forecast & that's where I first heard this... Actually, when you break down the stats, there's really nothing significant to be said wrt a warm or cold November portending to a similarly warm or cool DJF in the southeastern US. Of the 59 -ENSO winters I analyzed since 1895, only 59% possessed the same temperature phases in November and the subsequent DJF in the southeastern US, these results aren't significant whatsoever considering 41% exhibited no signal or the opposite signs in the 2 periods. There's a lot more to it than a simple linear relationship w/ temperatures... Large-scale forcing, seasonal changes in the jet/planetary wavelengths, and alterations in said forcing, in addition to external stochastic events need to be given due consideration and probably explain a large proportion of the winters that didn't follow this paradigm.
 
Webberweather53 said:
JB occasionally will take advantage of this statement to tout a cold winter forecast & that's where I first heard this... Actually, when you break down the stats, there's really nothing significant to be said wrt a warm or cold November portending to a similarly warm or cool DJF in the southeastern US. Of the 59 -ENSO winters I analyzed since 1895, only 59% possessed the same temperature phases in November and the subsequent DJF in the southeastern US, these results aren't significant whatsoever considering 41% exhibited no signal or the opposite signs in the 2 periods. There's a lot more to it than a simple linear relationship w/ temperatures... Large-scale forcing, seasonal changes in the jet/planetary wavelengths, and alterations in said forcing, in addition to external stochastic events need to be given due consideration and probably explain a large proportion of the winters that didn't follow this paradigm.
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I agree that the correlation is rather weak (noting what Phil just posted) as I've even said, but if given the choice, I'd prefer Nov be cool rather than warm for two reasons: 1. I'd enjoy November, itself, more if if were cool no matter what the winter shall bring. 2. It is a weak correlation rather than no correlation.
 
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