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Pattern Oppressive Ornery Obstinate Opposite October

Lan is a powerful typhoon and will definitely shake things up. Tokyo is going to get a lashing.


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Webberweather53 said:
We should see a major -NAO stint about 1.5-2 weeks from now, classic precursor signals w/ intense MJO-related convection propagating across the Pacific thru modification of Rossby Wave trains that emanate from the anomalous heating center.
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Hi Webber. Is there a chance this can continue at times during meteorological winter with recurving typhoons and other factors related? I personally don't want this to be a one done type setup, considering it will be November soon and we don't hardly ever see snow/ice then.
 
Man the 00z EPS is a thing of beauty
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Storm5 said:
Man the 00z EPS is a thing of beauty
475d2c30b3a2770067f65616b77c06a9.jpg


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It is, C-Man!
The concern is long-term staying power, or probably more importantly come-back power once we get into December and January ... We'll just need to wait and see ... :confused: ... Way too soon to start making those sorts of predictions. Unfortunately, though, most LR seasonal models are not showing any joy.
Best!
Phil
 
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Mr. Golf said:
Hi Webber. Is there a chance this can continue at times during meteorological winter with recurving typhoons and other factors related? I personally don't want this to be a one done type setup, considering it will be November soon and we don't hardly ever see snow/ice then.
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As i mentioned several days ago, in spite of the easterly QBO, a +NAO regime is favored in the current, warm background climate, coupling w/ inter annual persistence & the observed, recent decline in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation that's been induced in part by the cumulative impact of melting land ice from Greenland in the past decade or so in addition to very warm SSTs in the NW Pacific that are liable to reinforce the bgd NINA regime which tends to stifle -NAOs. However, if there's any encouraging news I can offer it's that, w/ an easterly QBO and relatively low solar activity, the Brewer-Dobson Circulation may be stronger than normal (due to cooling at the top of the BDC upward branch) in spite of the ongoing La Nina. The alterations in upper level wind shear and static stability excited by near-equatorial cooling from the decent of easterly wind anomalies associated w/ the EQBO may allow for more pronounced intraseasonal forcing than last winter. This would inherently allow for more frequent opportunities for at least punctuated/brief periods of high latitude blocking even if the large-scale forcing overall is not favorable... Definitely some hope even if this winter ends up warm/dry
 
cd2play said:
Actually 2016 wasn't a complete train wreck, thanks to "Jonas" on January 22. Last winter was completely unacceptable, however.
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Jonas was very kind to most of middle Tennessee. I got 12 inches from that storm up here in White House Tennessee. The crazy part was that most of it fell in a 4-5 hour period. It was an experience I’ll never forget. As far as last winter I didn’t think it was possible to be as warm and snowless as it turned out to be.
 
Actually the "forecast" map is in to November, but looking at this in October (yes, I know, it is a very crappy model, but it's showing what everything else is showing LR (which being LR may be a blessing in disguise, since LR models tend to have issues)) ... ---> but back to a sentence -- Looking at this has persuaded supper to be black beans and rice topped with refried beans ...

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i dont understand the big fuss and excitement about the models going into next week and just beyond... jesus... its october just now be barely going into november.... if we get these looks in late december to february.... game on
 
Basically we have Feb 20th sun angle and getting better every day. Take the cold pattern when you can get it and hope it locks in. GEFS is below normal for the run after Tuesday. Ready to be done running AC!!!
 
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