Pattern Octorchber

[weatherwolf]

Where are we at with the Big AI Modeling / solve all the worlds problems? Being sarcastic and serious at the same time. I know what to expect from the physics models. You find me an AI model that can start consistently nailing down the wx 7 days under and Ill jump on board with the AI hype. If they cant solve the wx, then to me they are just part of the lump sum of all the physics models and all other tech. Been said these would get better with time. So here we are a year + latter.
Love to hear some opions on where things stand. Thanks in advance!

They are too coarse for specifics (which doesn't matter a ton in quiet wx) but I find them to be the best on big scale stuff D4-8 or so. Temps are generally lacking but the error is fairly predictable (usually 2-5F too cool on highs, 3-7F too warm on lows, which is just a resolution thing). Not to say they can't be wrong, obviously. I do like that they don't tend to make big jumps, imo that helps communications. Slow and steady find the right solution vs "oh its gonna do this... now its gonna do this" every 12-24 hours.

 

[Brent]

It's interesting to me seeing the NHC use the AI models so heavily. A big reason their Isaias track has always been on the eastern side of the guidance

 

[Snowfan]

It's interesting to me seeing the NHC use the AI models so heavily. A big reason their Isaias track has always been on the eastern side of the guidance

Looks like the physics models are trending to the AI models in terms of track.

 

[vtrap90]

"90's in Mid October" sounds like a bad indie band name.

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

"90's in Mid October" sounds like a bad indie band name.


View attachment 198620

Mid 90s almost to the Missouri border in Mid October is insane.

 

[ChrisAMB]

Don't look now but the WPC has been upping totals in every forecast for coastal SC and NC. Would be pretty wild to actually get upwards of 5".

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

It’s that time of year, boys

 

[Brent]

Is it really gonna stop being 90 degrees? Still not holding my breath

 

[tennessee storm]

Mid 90s almost to the Missouri border in Mid October is insane.

With strong to super Nino. Should be no suprise

 

[YetAnotherRDUGuy]

With strong to super Nino. Should be no suprise

Heyyy super Nino, what’s your rain forecast now till Sun night?

 

[Brent]

Of course it is

 

[Tarheel1]

"90's in Mid October" sounds like a bad indie band name.


View attachment 198620

Nothing like fall heat and severe! This must be the warm front!??? Gonna be 80-90 next 3 days!

 

[Brent]

Lol that would be something after this heat. It definitely looks like a drastic change next weekend still

 

[weatherwolf]

Hey at least the cool snap after came back

 

[Tarheel1]

Nothing like fall heat and severe! This must be the warm front!??? Gonna be 80-90 next 3 days! View attachment 198641

 

[Avalanche]

Looks like a nice squall in the FL panhandle

 

[Tarheel1]

Ain’t this some BS

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

If Ole Goofy is right, next weekend will be nippy.

 

[Brent]

Silly Accuweather

But yes it does look a lot more like fall next weekend either way

 

[Snowfan]

Silly Accuweather

But yes it does look a lot more like fall next weekend either way

View attachment 198747

Watch out for Simon!

 

[Brent]

Watch out for Simon!

Haha seriously though the NWS is all in. Accuweather for all the talk of a big deal only has around an inch still which is weird. Though I wonder if this will actually pan out unlike Polo...

 

[GaWx]

I received a grand total of ~1.6” from Isaias’ influence 10/9-11.

This brings me to an impressive ~4.3” MTD, which is more than the normal amount for the entire month of ~3.6”.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Octorchber in jeopardy

 

[SD]

Octorchber in jeopardyView attachment 198803

Yeah man that 2 down cool down but that said it does look good

 

[NBAcentel]

Some areas might tack on 1-2 more 90 degree days on the year

 

[DupontWx]

NWS is biting on the cold front passing on friday....BRRRRR..... this is at 2100 feet, mountain tops (Mitchell) gonna be cold.

 

[Brent]

Octorchber in jeopardyView attachment 198803

Haha people here ain't believing we could have a frost threat but like if we clear out like forecast...

Friday doesn't get out of the 50s on some of the models

Lol after months of 90s and 100s it's just nice to see

 

[NCSNOW]

I'm on mission / still anticipating a Halloween / late Oct Hit job/ Big ticket east coast storm ( not Cane/ but extratropical/ Noreaster type with some tropical influence ). Don't see one yet. We shall see. Did see the ole CFS throw its first digital flakes of the season here in NW NC late 1st week NOV.

 

[SD]

I'm on mission / still anticipating a Halloween / late Oct Hit job/ Big ticket east coast storm ( not Cane/ but extratropical/ Noreaster type with some tropical influence ). Don't see one yet. We shall see. Did see the ole CFS throw its first digital flakes of the season here in NW NC late 1st week NOV.

I would guess we have some type of significant system about 5 days either side of Halloween

 

[superjames1992]

Seems like RDU has a decent chance to set the latest 90-degree temp on record mid-week.

 

[SD]

Seems like RDU has a decent chance to set the latest 90-degree temp on record mid-week.

Might do it 3 days in a row

 

[weatherwolf]

not a huge fan of modeled pattern as you get beyond D8 or so but this cool shot should hang around for some very nice mornings into next week before slop starts to win again around D10

 

[jrips27]

Man I was so focused on Isaias I didn’t even notice record highs coming this week. This sucks

 

[Rain Cold]

I'm on mission / still anticipating a Halloween / late Oct Hit job/ Big ticket east coast storm ( not Cane/ but extratropical/ Noreaster type with some tropical influence ). Don't see one yet. We shall see. Did see the ole CFS throw its first digital flakes of the season here in NW NC late 1st week NOV.

@FallsLake loves these.

 

[weatherwolf]

81/54. Would have died for it 3 weeks ago and yet I’m already over it

 

[SD]

not a huge fan of modeled pattern as you get beyond D8 or so but this cool shot should hang around for some very nice mornings into next week before slop starts to win again around D10

At least the models are trying to shake things up a bit with some signs of an attempted -NAO and/or a west coast ridge. If there is such a thing as seasonal trend it says the WC ridge is either temporary or just gets totally dominated by the pacific wave train. The NAO attempt has my attention at least

 

[NCSNOW]

@FallsLake loves these.

When winter fails we will have our excuse lol!

 

[256wx]

At least the models are trying to shake things up a bit with some signs of an attempted -NAO and/or a west coast ridge. If there is such a thing as seasonal trend it says the WC ridge is either temporary or just gets totally dominated by the pacific wave train. The NAO attempt has my attention at least

Is there not some sort of inverse correlation between NAO states in October and DJF NAO states? I feel like I have read that somewhere on one of these forums, but not sure when/where. If I understand it correctly, we would want a +NAO for October, at least for the mean.

Hopefully someone knowledgeable in this department can chime in, or it's possible that I could be imagining this.

 

[FallsLake]

@FallsLake loves these.

Man, with how this year is (strangely) evolving, I honestly don't know what to wish for; maybe more Siberian snow cover, continued warm NW Pacific waters. I've seen a lot of YouTube videos with (warm and cold) winter forecast, and I don't believe any of them,

 

[SD]

Is there not some sort of inverse correlation between NAO states in October and DJF NAO states? I feel like I have read that somewhere on one of these forums, but not sure when/where. If I understand it correctly, we would want a +NAO for October, at least for the mean.

Hopefully someone knowledgeable in this department can chime in, or it's possible that I could be imagining this.

See the latest post by @GaWx in the winter thread. It's not so much as we want to get a -NAO now for cooler weather or the fact it may/may correlate 1:1 to winter it's that you want to start disrupting the polar cap as much as possible early so that we can predispose the PV to a warming later in winter. The best way to do it is to pressure it early imo