Carolina Fever
Member
Don't think getting down to the 40s Monday is much of a torch.
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Pattern Octorchber
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Brent
Member
Welcome to October. The pattern change is already underway here!
I've already seen somebody claiming this will be a way different month than September. Friday may stay in the 60s all day! We only had 1 day below 85 even in September
I've already seen somebody claiming this will be a way different month than September. Friday may stay in the 60s all day! We only had 1 day below 85 even in September
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SE Canada snow base wants to get crankin early
looks like a bit of a roller coaster coming up the next 10-14
Insane spreads in rainfall amounts for only being 48 hours from the event start
National Blend of Models
Euro
GFS
National Blend of Models
Euro
GFS
a low amplitude roller coaster lol
Avalanche
Member
When it comes to Oklahoma they don’t call it “Stormin’ Norman” for nothing
Still learning about our new area in Brevard (from CLT). Our rental, as we build, feels like it's in a depression. We get frequent fog and temp drops that are lower than surrounding areas. Asheville got down to 57. My Tempest got down to 49. LOVE the new Weatherdesk. 
iGRXY
Member
This weekend screams overperformer along the eastern and southern escarpment in NC/SC/GA. I expect 4"+ in a lot of areas along 85 NW.
I was watching this as my first real "upslope" opportunity. Models are from 1 inch to 3 in Brevard/Cedar Mountain. Experience from this forum has educated me on the upslope components and how it can over perform.
howboutthemdawgs
Member
My truck is showing 94 degrees and I’ve driving for an hour, not parked in the sun. October off to a bang.
Offical fcst likes rain 
Think you guys will be fine to net a solid 1-2 + between Sat-Mon. Up this way the euro Op and GFS Op look better overnight, but the ukmet,Icon and Can as well as the Nam and RDPS arent giving us much love .5 or less. Get locked in on the wrong side of the wedge boundary / Drizzle fest inbound. Take what we can get. You should benefit from the wedge boundary sitting and stalling right over top of your location, if not spending time on the SE side
tennessee storm
Member
This map shows that I’d get within just the next 96 hrs about as much as I got in all of pretty dry Sept. So, I hope it verifies pretty closely. In reality due to the showery nature of some of this producing isolated heavy amounts, I realize there may be significant variations in totals within pretty short distances though.
Yeah I do wonder how this product will pan out. I feel like since it's a multimodel consensus it will end up spreading the totals too wide and bust on the high side for quite a few but a good case study to see if there is something I can do to make it better
It’s much appreciated since it’s a useful product with excellent graphics. But I agree that it’s the nature of a multimodal product like this when a not small portion of the precip is convective rather than stratiform that the majority of specific locations will often verify a little too high and a minority will often verify too low including some much too low where heavy enough convection happens to occur. But this combo allows the avg over a broad area to verify well fairly often assuming the model consensus had the right idea of course.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
256wx
Member
It's not hot everywhere in the CONUS. That wind is nuts!
Yeah that place is really cool. I've visited the observatory there when I lived in Massachusetts.
Fun fact, during WW2 and after, the military used the summit as a research facility to determine what cold weather did to newly developed jet engines and helicopters. Also, the highest wind speed on Earth ever recorded not associated with a tropical system or tornado happened there as well.
Anyone else intrigued by the 18z GFS...slowed the cold front down, which leads to more east/southeast winds for us. WE all know what that means for us in the piedmont/mountains of NC/SC.
Tsappfrog20
Member
Beautiful sunset tonight!!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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trackersacker
Member
Boys and girls, happy hour is back on the GFS.
Models are moving the heavier precip east in the last few runs for today and tomorrows rain.
The heavier rain totals have shifted to the south and east for this weekends rain. We certainly could use the heavier rain but more times than not this year most of us have been on the outside looking in. At least the heat abates next week and the models are showing another chance of rain just in time for next weekend.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Unbelievably considering the heat deep into September, the leaves are still starting to change now. Noticed it yesterday and it's definitely fall color as there has been "just" enough rain.
Have been noticing wunderground predictions start to creep up though, but NWS is still projecting a couple low 70's days.
Have been noticing wunderground predictions start to creep up though, but NWS is still projecting a couple low 70's days.
BufordWX
Member
80/77 here right now. Thats gotta be close to a record high dew point for October. Lawrenceville is showing a dew point of 79 as well.
Already picked up a decent amount of rain this morning as well. 0.77”
Already picked up a decent amount of rain this morning as well. 0.77”
No doubt. I just came inside from yard work, and I'm soaked in sweat. Missed the rain here...so far.
I’ve already gotten >1/2 of this 2.61”. Here I’ve been getting rain since 12:45PM moving NE with some of it very heavy. This is in addition to a quick shower this morning and moderate rain (few tenths) late yest. afternoon from popups. It appears I’ve received 1.5”+ from all of this with most of it just since 12:45PM with it still raining lightly. This compares to ~2.55” for all of Sep!
Update at 5: been getting additional mod to heavy rain since 4:45. I’m now likely at 2”+ since yest.
Edit: Final total for Fri-Sat 10/2-3 was ~2.1”.
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What’s the deal with all the radars along the Gulf coast being down? 
This event is already an overperformer at my residence. I just got back in and I have 1.36 inches in the rain gauge at my house near Lake Wheeler. This might end up putting a dent in the drought we've been experiencing for the past several months now when all is said and done.
It's been so long since we've had any heavy rain that some people have forgotten how to drive in it. I counted six cars that had run off the highway in different locations and endured two traffic delays due to that on my drive to Selma and back on Highway 70 East.
It's been so long since we've had any heavy rain that some people have forgotten how to drive in it. I counted six cars that had run off the highway in different locations and endured two traffic delays due to that on my drive to Selma and back on Highway 70 East.
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.05" thus far. Drought intensifies.
JHS
Member
A major underperformer so far for 90% of the area. Unless the 2nd round does something, many in NC and SC may not get a drop this weekend. ALL US models need to simply be shut down and only the Euro used.
JHS
Member
That second round has basically gone away now. Our rain chances went from 90% down to 40 for tomorrow. It's either tonight or nothing at all now.