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Pattern Octoburn

No sign of cold here and everyone is acting like it's not an October they remember already 🙄

Gonna be a long month I see before our winter front around Halloween
 
Brent said:
No sign of cold here and everyone is acting like it's not an October they remember already 🙄

Gonna be a long month I see before our winter front around Halloween
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It will be November this year. The climate steadily keeps warming up …. Remember when I was kid u had wear jacket or even more late September for west tn. Long memories
 
tennessee storm said:
It will be November this year. The climate steadily keeps warming up …. Remember when I was kid u had wear jacket or even more late September for west tn. Long memories
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Actually our hottest October was in 1963. We were above 95 several times

2020 almost had an ice storm here before Halloween
 
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some sunday morning thoughts

added bonus to not having a giant flood somewhere from imelda is the path is clear for our HP to produce some very nice days late this week. in fact the Carolinas are basically in NE flow from highs over top the entire week, it just peaks around the time frame shown below
1759064578689.png

dewpoints stay a little more elevated than you might expect given a nice HP to the NE as we get into october but if the 6z euro is right it will still be perfectly manageable
1759064957803.png
1759064947121.png


We should manage to stay below normal in the afternoons into sunday-ish thanks to our ne flow but after that is currently looking a little warmer as we get under above normal 500 heights and don't have a HP to save us
 
Yeah, unfortunately this heat dome over the Midwest...
1759178831432.png

...has become a permanent fixture over the past few months and it won't go away. We're having to count on backdoor fronts and they only go so far. Ironically, we haven't had a true sweeping front for everyone since early in Sept and August. We need that ridge to our west to break down and allow the fronts to come through and stay. If this continues it will be another west of Apps winter.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
Yeah, unfortunately this heat dome over the Midwest...
View attachment 175297

...has become a permanent fixture over the past few months and it won't go away. We're having to count on backdoor fronts and they only go so far. Ironically, we haven't had a true sweeping front for everyone since early in Sept and August. We need that ridge to our west to break down and allow the fronts to come through and stay. If this continues it will be another west of Apps winter.
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Maybe west of the Ozarks winter
 
Yep
7 days of 25+ above normal temps! Octoburn sucks. Total rain for September .19 IMG_2570.png 🌵
 
We are fast approaching the annual best 6 week stretch of weather in NC.

MID OCTOBER - TURKEY DAY

Doesn't matter if is el nino/la nina, pos or neg nao etc.
It's highs in the 60's-low 70's max on an Above Normal day and nighttime lows in the 30's-40's. Abundant sunshine and dewpoints under 50 everyday.
You can count on one hand the all day rainy days that may pop up usually over this 6 week stretch, Spring doesn't have a 6 week stretch that beats this one in my opinion.
 
Grok's October outlook, posting for future reference:

Here's a state-by-state breakdown in table format, including average high/low temperatures (based on 1991–2020 normals adjusted for forecasted anomalies of +1–3°F), precipitation trends, and general weather notes. These are probabilistic outlooks; local variations (e.g., coastal vs. inland) could occur.
StateAvg. High/Low (°F)Precipitation TrendWeather Notes
South Carolina78–60 (warmer than normal)Below average (1–2" total, 20–30% drier)Sunny and pleasant early; scattered thunderstorms mid-month; cooler, drier close to Halloween. Low tropical risk but watch Atlantic coast.
Georgia79–58 (warmer than normal)Below average (1.5–2.5" total, drier overall)Warm starts with light showers; fair skies late-month. Good for festivals, but dry spells could heighten fire risk in north.
North Carolina76–55 (near to slightly warmer)Below average (2–3" total, especially south)Variable: Warm and sunny early, regional showers mid-October; cooler in mountains. Foliage peak mid-month amid mild conditions.
Alabama80–56 (warmer than normal)Below to near average (2–3" total, stormy stretches)Pleasant for fall events; thunderstorms possible around mid-month, but fair Halloween weather. Humid early, drier late.
Florida84–68 (warmer than normal)Below average (1–2" total, drier than normal)Steamy and sunny; minimal rain, ideal for beaches. Above-normal heat persists, with low storm risk but potential for isolated showers.
My prediction: This October leans toward a "second summer" vibe—warmer and less rainy than typical, making it prime for leaf-peeping in the Carolinas or beach trips in Florida. However, if La Niña strengthens (71% chance by October–December), we could see sharper cool fronts late-month. For real-time updates, check NOAA's CPC as we approach.
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Brent said:
People already complaining it's never ever ever been hot in October before

It's gonna be a long month
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It got to 100 here in early October 2019, which set our all-time record. Of course, that’s the RDU sensor… 🔥
 
Avalanche said:
Coming to a pharmacy near you.
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Common side effects are: rash, nausea, diarrhea, headache, vomiting, above normal temps, below normal rain, fever, feelings of depression, malaise, suicidal thoughts, nervousness, crappy MJO, Alaskan Ridge, zonal flow.

Talk to your meteorologist if you experience any of these symptoms.
 
I think everyone loves the ragebait of a tropical system
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
Yeah, unfortunately this heat dome over the Midwest...
View attachment 175297

...has become a permanent fixture over the past few months and it won't go away. We're having to count on backdoor fronts and they only go so far. Ironically, we haven't had a true sweeping front for everyone since early in Sept and August. We need that ridge to our west to break down and allow the fronts to come through and stay. If this continues it will be another west of Apps winter.
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Cooler in WNC than it is in Southern Ontario. Wedge for the win! I'll be interested in seeing if this pattern continues as well, although I won't complain about CAD winter.
 
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