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Pattern October Oven 2024

NCSNOW said:
The EPS,Gefs,Geps and all ops have Nada here all the way to hour 360. The CFS which goes out like 720ish hours through mid November has a measely1 inch total qpf that comes from something weeks down the road.
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Thank goodness we're in the Fall season. Supposed to be dry and the vegetation either goes dormant or dies off. also, from what I've read, this la nina should end early next year and that should put us back into a favorable/wetter pattern. But the weather patterns have been wacky lately so who knows....
 
My creek is still pretty high for this time of year. We are in a limestone aquifer so I guess a lot of Helene got soaked in good. Managed to catch a nice spotted bass the other day so it's good to see the fish thriving. The flood also cleared what little silt I had out leaving a nice gravel bed for the spring buffalo and other spawns.
 
dsaur said:
Yeah, over a foot three weeks ago and not a drop since....and if the long range pans out it'll be 5 weeks with nothing. Bing and purge. Hard to get frozen precip without precip. It's need to moisten up some by Jan., lol. Climo says dry, but this is over doing it.
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Yeah this is one boring stretch of weather. How people in California stand it i will never know. On the bright side...maybe...is i would hope a dry spell here and to the north would help give us some lower dewpoints in the winter. It seems like one of the missing ingredients for winter events for years has been lack of low dewpoints. I'll sacrifice some weather now to finally get something this winter. OTOH...it might not make a lick of difference which would be our luck.
 
Brent said:
And I thought our month stretch was bad

Supposedly a pattern change around Halloween but I swear I've heard that before

Next Wednesday is our latest 90 on record
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That's crazy that your latest 90 degree day is a full 3 weeks after Atlanta's latest 90 degree day. I believe October 9, 1941 is the latest in the year Atlanta reached 90.
 
Carolina Sky said:
80 here on Saturday to 59 on Sunday. That's going to be a shock to the system.
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Yes and the cold is not good for certain segments of our society. The warmth is good, not only for comfort and enjoyment, but good for the elderly who struggle to keep warm.

So let’s get out and enjoy this nice weather. Remember to enjoy the weather, it’s the only weather you got.
 
So what are the chances this blocking ridge can hang on all the way through November? It just seems to get stronger.
 
I got .29 inches of rain here at the house. That's enough at least to settle the dust. It is noticeably cooler than it was yesterday when I was hunting. The mosquitoes were out in full force. I wish this cooler weather would stick around but with that persistent high pressure ridge hanging around I know that is a pipe dream.
 
J.C. said:
So what are the chances this blocking ridge can hang on all the way through November? It just seems to get stronger.
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Well I’m a big fan of the power of pattern persistence but that said the PNA is headed towards positive, NAO mildly negative, AO neutral. Probably the pattern begrudgingly dissolves.


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ATLwxfan said:
Well I’m a big fan of the power of pattern persistence but that said the PNA is headed towards positive, NAO mildly negative, AO neutral. Probably the pattern begrudgingly dissolves.


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Since you moved to IL, it probably be ok for you. It difficult to get sustainable cold or even cool weather in November. I hope it's not cool and can get going in winter where it matters the most
 
GolfishardIknowit70 said:
Since you moved to IL, it probably be ok for you. It difficult to get sustainable cold or even cool weather in November. I hope it's not cool and can get going in winter where it matters the most
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It’s been quite warm here and models have us firmly AN through mid November. Remains to be seen if the teleconnections actually go as predicted. Even so, there’s not cold air to even deliver.


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ATLwxfan said:
It’s been quite warm here and models have us firmly AN through mid November. Remains to be seen if the teleconnections actually go as predicted. Even so, there’s not cold air to even deliver.


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There is a pretty high fire danger all up and down the east coast, only to get worse. I didn't realize that most of the northeast cities haven't recorded any rain this month either.
 
ATLwxfan said:
It’s been quite warm here and models have us firmly AN through mid November. Remains to be seen if the teleconnections actually go as predicted. Even so, there’s not cold air to even deliver.


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I won't mind if it's warm through mid-end November but I'm hoping that the proverbial shoe drops sooner or later. We were close to a frost a week ago but never happened
 
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