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Pattern October Oven 2024

Good thing the Nina will save us!
 
Looks active up here and colder by Halloween!! Remember it’s a step down process!!
 
Bham 99 said:
James spann says that October 1924 was the last time Birmingham went without rain for a whole month in October.
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Yeah I remember growing up in Alabama October was usually the driest month of the year so I mean if there was gonna be a dry month this is it

It's one of the wetter in Tulsa and still there's been a couple years with no rain
 
Brent said:
Yeah I remember growing up in Alabama October was usually the driest month of the year so I mean if there was gonna be a dry month this is it

It's one of the wetter in Tulsa and still there's been a couple years with no rain
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This isn’t the first completely dry October I’ve experienced. We usually don’t get any rain in October unless it’s related to the tropics.
 
The last and only time Atlanta had only a trace of precip in October was 1963. Here is the data from the next couple of months:

November: Average High: 62.5 Average Low: 40.5 Snow: T
December: Average High: 44.4 Average Low: 26.5 Snow: 2.5"
January: Average High: 51.3F Average Low: 31.3 Snow: .8"
 
I'll be perfectly fine with 0" for a change in a month considering that the last noteworthy system was Helene...

Now this can't be a thing forever, but it can be for a few weeks here.

Have to say, we were probably within inches of two frosts even here, and heck, I think I saw frost on the top of one car at home.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I'll be perfectly fine with 0" for a change in a month considering that the last noteworthy system was Helene...

Now this can't be a thing forever, but it can be for a few weeks here.

Have to say, we were probably within inches of two frosts even here, and heck, I think I saw frost on the top of one car at home.
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We need some cumulonimbus storms!!!
 
Here recently it seems to be feast or famine as far as rainfall is concerned. I know fall is climatologically the driest season in the Triangle but it's been a while without a significant rain and the next fifteen days look dry. The soil is turning to dust in bare areas without vegetation and the ground soil is hard as a rock.
 
J.C. said:
I'm sorry, but this entire pattern of the ridge being parked where it is for as long as it has is unprecedented in my view. Without tropical systems we would have no live vegetation at this point.
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It's basically what peak summer was for the southern Plains it's just now hot is 80s and not 100s
 
J.C. said:
I'm sorry, but this entire pattern of the ridge being parked where it is for as long as it has is unprecedented in my view. Without tropical systems we would have no live vegetation at this point.
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Gong to be booty cheeks through at least 11/10 maybe longer. Looks like ass going forward
 
Good to have this comfortable weather after the cold snap. Nice to see the elderly out on their porches instead of being couped up in a blanket trying to stay warm.
 
This dry weather is reminding me of my days living in California. Im sure there’s been periods this dry since I moved to Nashville in 2006 but it’s been so long I can’t remember it. I just worry about fires especially as the dew points and humidity start to really go down in November. If not for the hurricane it would be multiple months without rainfall here.
 
J.C. said:
I guess let’s see how long this pattern can last. More boat days are definitely in my future.
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I’ve been enjoying the last few days and have had some very enjoyable walks.

Upcoming for the US as a whole: The rest of October through Nov 2nd is forecasted by the latest Euro ensemble mean to have near record low US pop weighted HDDs for the period (on left) <1/2 the normal. That means for CDDs (on right) near record high levels for the same period (3 times the normal). To put it into a different perspective, normally HDDs are 8 times as high as CDDs for this period, but they’re forecasted to be only 1.25 times as high!

The purple line is based on the 12Z Euro ensemble mean (yellow was the 0Z). The dashed green lines are normals:

IMG_0508.png
 
olhausen said:
This dry weather is reminding me of my days living in California. Im sure there’s been periods this dry since I moved to Nashville in 2006 but it’s been so long I can’t remember it. I just worry about fires especially as the dew points and humidity start to really go down in November. If not for the hurricane it would be multiple months without rainfall here.
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Yeah, over a foot three weeks ago and not a drop since....and if the long range pans out it'll be 5 weeks with nothing. Bing and purge. Hard to get frozen precip without precip. It's need to moisten up some by Jan., lol. Climo says dry, but this is over doing it.
 
dsaur said:
Yeah, over a foot three weeks ago and not a drop since....and if the long range pans out it'll be 5 weeks with nothing. Bing and purge. Hard to get frozen precip without precip. It's need to moisten up some by Jan., lol. Climo says dry, but this is over doing it.
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Tony, Your moles know what La Nina can bring in terms of dryness once the tropics have lost their influence on the SE. Their wx awareness is impressive! ;)
 
GaWx said:
I’ve been enjoying the last few days and have had some very enjoyable walks.

Upcoming for the US as a whole: The rest of October through Nov 2nd is forecasted by the latest Euro ensemble mean to have near record low US pop weighted HDDs for the period (on left) <1/2 the normal. That means for CDDs (on right) near record high levels for the same period (3 times the normal). To put it into a different perspective, normally HDDs are 8 times as high as CDDs for this period, but they’re forecasted to be only 1.25 times as high!

The purple line is based on the 12Z Euro ensemble mean (yellow was the 0Z). The dashed green lines are normals:

View attachment 153388
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Very interesting stuff, admittedly something I didn’t know anything about. Needless to say, this sounds like a pretty unique time period.

Thanks for sharing!
 
GaWx said:
I’ve been enjoying the last few days and have had some very enjoyable walks.

Upcoming for the US as a whole: The rest of October through Nov 2nd is forecasted by the latest Euro ensemble mean to have near record low US pop weighted HDDs for the period (on left) <1/2 the normal. That means for CDDs (on right) near record high levels for the same period (3 times the normal). To put it into a different perspective, normally HDDs are 8 times as high as CDDs for this period, but they’re forecasted to be only 1.25 times as high!

The purple line is based on the 12Z Euro ensemble mean (yellow was the 0Z). The dashed green lines are normals:

View attachment 153388
Click to expand...
Either way, even if above average the weather should be pleasant! These dry days and cool nights are heavenly. Put on a sweater at night and shorts in the day
 
GaWx said:
Tony, Your moles know what La Nina can bring in terms of dryness once the tropics have lost their influence on the SE. Their wx awareness is impressive! ;)
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Larry, it looks like you'll be having many pleasant walks going forward! Just hope we aren't having to deal with lots of dry cold. I'd prefer 33 and rain, if I had my druthers.
 
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