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Pattern October Oven 2024

Met1985 said:
Photo by my friend Timm Davis. The GSP NWS Shared this one. From Wolf Laurel. He had about 3 inches at the top.
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Man that is GORGEOUS! Snow with Fall colors doesn't happen much in this part of the country but it sure is pretty. Hoping the rest of us get something this year! ☃️
 
Brent said:
Tulsa was one degree off the record low

What a front. Yeah its gonna warm up obviously but hopefully this is a sign of the winter
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Enjoy it while you can. I sure am loving this chill!
Models (extended GEFS/Euro Weeklies/CFS) are mainly warm in your area and also in much of the E half of the US starting next week and going through just before Thanksgiving. Wouldn’t surprise me if these verify well as I’m on the mainly warm train although I’d expect some short cool periods interspersed. Good news for W NC folks without heat!
 
We will fight the warm flavor all winter. But at a minimum Canada will be an ice box, unlike last year. And when we do see cold, it will pack a punch. Will be in and out without blocking, but we will get a few good blows. I think GSO can make a run at 0 for a low this year. Been a while. Gonna be below normal qpf, so that will make the timing recipe for snow all the more difficult to achieve.
 
GaWx said:
Enjoy it while you can. I sure am loving this chill!
Models (extended GEFS/Euro Weeklies/CFS) are mainly warm in your area and also in much of the E half of the US starting next week and going through just before Thanksgiving. Wouldn’t surprise me if these verify well as I’m on the mainly warm train although I’d expect some short cool periods interspersed. Good news for W NC folks without heat!
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Yeah honestly I'm fine with a warmup. I'd rather save our cold weather for when it matters hopefully
 
GaWx said:
Enjoy it while you can. I sure am loving this chill!
Models (extended GEFS/Euro Weeklies/CFS) are mainly warm in your area and also in much of the E half of the US starting next week and going through just before Thanksgiving. Wouldn’t surprise me if these verify well as I’m on the mainly warm train although I’d expect some short cool periods interspersed. Good news for W NC folks without heat!
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Larry, I hope it stays warm through Thanksgiving and then gets cold and perhaps it can lock in for a little while because typically laniña is front loaded. I know we got the warm pool in west pacific but I'm cautiously optimistic that we can get periods of a -wpo/epo or the warm pool can somehow shift enough east to where the trough don't stay parked on west coast all winter
 
IMHO as been the story in the past several La Nina’s, I’d look between 3rd week of December/3rd week of January for scoring chances. That convective forcing that accompanies La Niñas typically adds favorability into the pattern earlier on in winter. I’d imagine this winter will be the opposite of last winter and instead of us wanting to get rid of a pacific low, we are gonna be begging for the Aleutian/GOAK ridge to move east or go poleward
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
IMHO as been the story in the past several La Nina’s, I’d look between 3rd week of December/3rd week of January for scoring chances. That convective forcing that accompanies La Niñas typically adds favorability into the pattern earlier on in winter. I’d imagine this winter will be the opposite of last winter and instead of us wanting to get rid of a pacific low, we are gonna be begging for the Aleutian/GOAK ridge to move east or go poleward
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shaq-shimmy (1).gif
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
IMHO as been the story in the past several La Nina’s, I’d look between 3rd week of December/3rd week of January for scoring chances. That convective forcing that accompanies La Niñas typically adds favorability into the pattern earlier on in winter. I’d imagine this winter will be the opposite of last winter and instead of us wanting to get rid of a pacific low, we are gonna be begging for the Aleutian/GOAK ridge to move east or go poleward
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A flat aleutian ridge will not help but a pole ward aleutian ridge should help if we can establish one
 
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