October Odyssey

[SD]

Honestly, I wouldn’t trust the ICON on the SER. I should have been more clear about that. Other then “smaller” features it hasn’t handled our ridge well.

I wouldn’t dismiss RDU for now receiving any precipitation from both front and zeta just yet.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I wouldn't be shocked to see a near shutout. Best jet dynamics are north and west so the PRE will be in the Ohio Valley/mid atlantic maybe into the NE and the track of the system itself will keep the rain associated with the core of the system in the western piedmont and mountains. The only way that I can see this area really getting into the rain with zeta is if we can capitalize on some weak divergence aloft with pwats of 1.8-2 and get a few shallow but efficient showers going late Wednesday. That being said Thursday afternoon is interesting for most of nc as the base of the trough moves into a slightly unstable atmosphere

Edit to add:Just thinking back historically this track would be on the lower end precipitation wise but the higher end severe wise

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I wouldn't be shocked to see a near shutout. Best jet dynamics are north and west so the PRE will be in the Ohio Valley/mid atlantic maybe into the NE and the track of the system itself will keep the rain associated with the core of the system in the western piedmont and mountains. The only way that I can see this area really getting into the rain with zeta is if we can capitalize on some weak divergence aloft with pwats of 1.8-2 and get a few shallow but efficient showers going late Wednesday. That being said Thursday afternoon is interesting for most of nc as the base of the trough moves into a slightly unstable atmosphere

Edit to add:Just thinking back historically this track would be on the lower end precipitation wise but the higher end severe wise

Yeah nam spits out some strong storms after the remnants passes thru around CLT with still a left over 40+kt LLJ but winds more unidirectional with the main system, however lapse rates and cape is extremely poor, the faster the remnants move out the more cape recovers
Plenty of forcing tho

 

[SASQUATCH]

Damn!

 

[SD]

Yeah nam spits out some strong storms after the remnants passes thru around CLT with still a left over 40+kt LLJ but winds more unidirectional with the main system, however lapse rates and cape is extremely poor, the faster the remnants move out the more cape recovers
Plenty of forcing tho View attachment 51132View attachment 51133View attachment 51134

Lots of ML drying there. Might be a day where only 1-2 storms get going but could be pretty impressive

 

[Webberweather53]

Honestly, I wouldn’t trust the ICON on the SER. I should have been more clear about that. Other then “smaller” features it hasn’t handled our ridge well.

I wouldn’t dismiss RDU for now receiving any precipitation from both front and zeta just yet.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

It's literally a 2-3 day forecast, the model is handling the SER just fine.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Lots of ML drying there. Might be a day where only 1-2 storms get going but could be pretty impressive

Yeah still potent LLJ + mid level drying + high DCAPE and a weak cap with plenty of forcing is sure a interesting combo

 

[wxdaniel]

Yeah still potent LLJ + mid level drying + high DCAPE and a weak cap with plenty of forcing is sure a interesting combo

Charlotte seems to be okay. RDU and points East best chance?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[BufordWX]

Here is my high up view of all the ice.

 

[BufordWX]

So much for supposedly going above freezing this afternoon. Got as high as 31.8 and now KOUN is reporting a temperature of 30. More freezing rain moving in too.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That Big patch of dry air aloft reminds me of April 2011, shear/SRH, heck no and thermos not really
Lapse rates suck tho

 

[tramadoc]

I’ve always found ZR really pretty on the trees after the sun pops out. [mention]BufordWX [/mention] nice pics!!

 

[Brent]

Definitely one of the coldest October days ever here

Please be a sign of winter lol

 

[Chazwin]

Definitely one of the coldest October days ever here

Please be a sign of winter lol

View attachment 51159

In terms of a comparison to average, that has to be up there with year that Dallas has that sleet storm on Thanksgiving and was in the mid 20s when the Cowboys game kicked off

 

[Tarheel1]

Definitely one of the coldest October days ever here

Please be a sign of winter lol

View attachment 51159

I’m always nervous of cold October’s! Even here they say white in October, leads to warm thanksgiving and Christmas! So we shall see

 

[LickWx]

I’m always nervous of cold October’s! Even here they say white in October, leads to warm thanksgiving and Christmas! So we shall see

Lol, that means they get snow in October with enough frequency to warrant such a saying! Amazing! I can't really think of an equivalent here other than the cold because we certainly don't snow in October or almost never in November.

 

[SWVAwxfan]

If that icon run verifies, I'm In for quite a soaking.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Starting to notice that models are separating the remnants and the main system itself a lot more, starting to wonder if that could allow the severe threat to go up (wind)

 

[Fountainguy97]

My word..

 

[RainlessSnowless & Grumpy]

Lol, that means they get snow in October with enough frequency to warrant such a saying! Amazing! I can't really think of an equivalent here other than the cold because we certainly don't snow in October or almost never in November.

Or almost never in December, or January, or February....

 

[Brent]

This just seems like the perfect 2020 image