Another Enhanced rusk today for parts of Kansas and Oklahoma as the next system move in. Looks like there is a region for a stronger tornado potential in NW Oklahoma. Doubt we see anything like we did on Sunday down in OKC though.
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Severe October 10-13th Severe Threat
- Thread starter BufordWX
- Start date
Hold on a minute…
Upgrade to moderate for small parts of TX, OK, and KS.
Already a tornado warning in western Oklahoma.
PDS warning for storm near Frederick. Looks like a debris ball as well.
2 tornado warnings now. Confirmed one on the northern cell. Southern one has lifted for now.
Debris ball developing on the southern storm again.
This could be the storm of the day.
It takes a powerful storm to shoot bolts out this far
Brent
Member
Looks like it’s trying to redevelop.
Brent
Member
The supercells died off but the line just slammed Dodge City
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1082
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1231 PM EDT Wed Oct 13 2021
Areas affected...southwest into west-central Texas
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 131631Z - 132231Z
Summary...Onset of a long-duration flash flood threat is underway
across the discussion area.
Discussion...Latest observations and objective analyses indicate a
nearly surface boundary extending from near 6R6 (near the Big Bend
region of Texas) east-northeastward to near the Dallas/Fort Worth
Metro area. Along and southeast of the front, abundantly moist
and unstable air was supporting scattered showers and
thunderstorms near the front that were increasing in coverage and
intensity this morning. Flow aloft was southwesterly - generally
parallel to the front - which was already allowing for some
training especially near the convective band about 70 WSW of SJT.
Areas of 1"/hr rates were already noted, which is not particularly
surprising given 1.5-1.9 inch PW values along and ahead of the
front.
Over the next 6 hours (and potentially beyond), models depict a
gradual expansion of convective coverage primarily due to weak
confluence/convergence along and ahead of the front. The approach
of moisture/lift associated with Tropical Cyclone Pam along the
western coast of Mexico will also contribute to expanded
convective coverage over time as well. FFG thresholds are
generally in the 2-3"/hr range across most of the discussion area
(slightly lower near the Austin/San Antonio corridor), suggesting
that the greatest flash flood threat will be tied to areas that
can experience training and/or persistence of heavy rainfall in
the near term.
Cook
ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT...
ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...
LAT...LON 32689805 32479765 31719781 30789875 29679955
29130038 29300089 29560173 29570234 29690269
30450231 31190151 32489919
cd2play
Member
Only a dusting expected. 
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
WRAL saying any severe storms tomorrow should be north of here.