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Pattern Novemburrr

Jessy89 said:
So we looking for a front loaded winter it may seem. I remember those two years back to back that brought early December snow


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I still wouldn’t say it’s front loaded just yet. Everything is still in fantasy land and even in fantasy nothing is showing up beside some cool to cold temps. I would be shocked to get a storm before December 15th.
 
36 with scattered frost this morning.

Felt warmer than I thought it would yesterday in the morning (felt really good though tbh) and got slightly warmer than forecast (I believe it hit 70), but that didn't prevent a frost from happening.
 
SD said:
Yeah I feel like the SER is more of a 2nd half feature but the potential upwelling in the pac over the next few weeks makes me wonder if we see the SER as more of a wall to wall feature in Jan and we see it break down in Feb as the nina potentially falls apart
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That’s exactly what happened in both Jan/Feb 1990 and 2001. Coming out of periods that were soundly below average with multiple winter weather events, the SER flexed strongly and put things into total torch mode… interestingly though both of those winters did finish with colder than average periods at the end of February into March as both years developed strong blocking and a -NAO. This will be something to watch even with the forecast ENSO looking to stay in the moderate positive range, I’ve noticed the last year that the ENSO seems to be progressing faster than forecasted
 
tennessee storm said:
We going have to deal with the SE ridge most of winter this season, almost a given…
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No, it is not almost a given.... the NAO will have a lot to say about whether the SE ridge appears. Just because you have a weak La-Nina, doesn't automatically mean SE ridge. Also, just because you have a weak Nino, doesn't mean that the SE ridge will not be a factor. If you have a weak La-Nina coupled with a west based -NAO and an -EPO combo, that's money in the bank. I have lived here in western NC for 56 years and have never seen a winter without accumulating snowfall. Relax, and enjoy the season. Instead of trying to find everything that's wrong with the pattern, try to find the positive.
 
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