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Pattern Novemburrr

SimeonNC said:
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I agree with Jon. Actually, -NAO blocking increased dramatically on ALL 0Z models throughout their runs for some reason. Thus the potential for a quite cold period on and near Thanksgiving has increased.

Remember how cold the Fri 12Z EPS was for around Thanksgiving in the E US vs earlier runs as per our posts? Then the Sat 0Z backed off some. Next, the Sat 12Z came back a little colder. Now the brand new Sun 0Z is by a good margin the coldest with a strong suggestion of Arctic air dominating. The stronger/very strong -NAO is a big reason for this as very cold air coming out of NW Canada is forced way down into the E US by the -NAO block instead of sliding more eastward like in earlier runs. The 0Z GEFS and GEPS are also colder than their prior runs due largely to a stronger -NAO though the GEFS is still not as cold as the EPS. (The GEPS is the coldest of the 3 although it is well known that it is cold biased.) I’m starting to get excited about the period around Thanksgiving. Also, although highly speculative that far out, the 0Z consensus suggests that the cold could very well continue for awhile as the ends of the models suggest subsequent Arctic air coming down.
 
GaWx said:
I agree with Jon. Actually, -NAO blocking increased dramatically on ALL 0Z models throughout their runs for some reason. Thus the potential for a quite cold period on and near Thanksgiving has increased.

Remember how cold the Fri 12Z EPS was for around Thanksgiving in the E US vs earlier runs as per our posts? Then the Sat 0Z backed off some. Next, the Sat 12Z came back a little colder. Now the brand new Sun 0Z is by a good margin the coldest with a strong suggestion of Arctic air dominating. The stronger/very strong -NAO is a big reason for this as very cold air coming out of NW Canada is forced way down into the E US by the -NAO block instead of sliding more eastward like in earlier runs. The 0Z GEFS and GEPS are also colder than their prior runs due largely to a stronger -NAO though the GEFS is still not as cold as the EPS. (The GEPS is the coldest of the 3 although it is well known that it is cold biased.) I’m starting to get excited about the period around Thanksgiving. Also, although highly speculative that far out, the 0Z consensus suggests that the cold could very well continue for awhile as the ends of the models suggest subsequent Arctic air coming down.
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Another cold weather hypster , lol we will soon find out …
 
tennessee storm said:
Another cold weather hypster , lol we will soon find out …
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Cold weather hype-ster? We’re posting this based on actual model output as spelled out. This isn’t baseless hype. This doesn’t mean it will necessarily happen obviously. We didn’t say that. But the chance has increased imo. I hope this doesn’t eventually trend further west and allow the SER to get in the way like so often occurs, especially in La Niña and considering the warm MC.
 
Holy cow what a turn around on the models overnight .. would love to see more consistency here over the next couple of days but good god that -NAO is the thing I knew that could save us this winter with these NINA patterns .. I would assume Nina takes over eventually but we will take all the blocking whenever it decides to arrive like this .. there’s gotta be a juicy control run out there right?
 
Lickwx said:
Too conservative 29 rdu , 28 your home , 24 roxboro , 26 Sanford . 28 met, 27 louisburg
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@SD you ignored this post but it was RIGHT on the money . Meanwhile your failed prediction got all the likes ! Let’s goooo! 29 RDU 28 your home 27 louisburg . Let’s forget the Sanford and roxboro predictions lol, I was too cold they only dropped to 27. Underdogs ftw!
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
Wake up and see no new pages = cold overnight model runs. Use to be the other way around on here.
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The warmanistas have taken over! When they can’t show desert heat maps, like our Concord friend and our desert SW friend, then trolling is no longer fun! ?
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Holy cow what a turn around on the models overnight .. would love to see more consistency here over the next couple of days but good god that -NAO is the thing I knew that could save us this winter with these NINA patterns .. I would assume Nina takes over eventually but we will take all the blocking whenever it decides to arrive like this .. there’s gotta be a juicy control run out there right?
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From my limited knowledge, la nina favors negative PNAs; hence our warmer overall outcomes. la nina's also favor colder air to our northwest. So if we can get something (in the pattern) to enhance blocking we could do very well this winter (during blocking episodes). **I'm even hoping the less arctic ice --> more blocking theory could help...
 
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