Pattern Novemburrr

[tennessee storm]

la nina has weakened a bit over the past week

Forecast peak late winter early spring

 

[wxdaniel]

That is honestly the first time in my life that I've seen the word Ouch spelled with a T. Must be British.

I need you to review all my posts before publishing them. ? ?

 

[SD]

Forecast peak late winter early spring

I don't think it's impossible it's before that (maybe a late Dec/Jan peak) but we will see. I was looking for a lot of my old enso links this morning and can't find them. Blah

 

[SD]

If winds die off early enough Saturday night these dews may support the coolest night so far

 

[jackendrickwx]

No big temp drop for us in central-ENC, but a nice DP dump in the afternoon before sunset. Seems like Sat afternoon is when the real low DPs arrive

 

[jackendrickwx]

GFS pretty dang aggressive on Monday highs. 2-4F lower than ECMWF

 

[Webberweather53]

As soon as we get that one really warm SER look in the models Fro and Webb will be active as ever ?

Just like you and lookin at day 6-10 CMC runs ?

 

[Webberweather53]

Anytime you stick a big Siberian air mass against the Canadian Rockies you’re asking for -PNA & a SE ridge unless the NAO is strongly negative

 

[Webberweather53]

1055 north of Alaska ??

 

[jackendrickwx]

1055 north of Alaska ??

View attachment 94751

Also wudge

 

[jackendrickwx]

In that sort of warmup/cold front pattern for a while longer looks like

 

[SD]

Just happy to get through this gfs run with no major changes. This is a nice example of how to thread the needle in parts of the region if this pattern were to verify

 

[Webberweather53]

Anytime you stick a big Siberian air mass against the Canadian Rockies you’re asking for -PNA & a SE ridge unless the NAO is strongly negative

View attachment 94750

More of this west based -NAO trend from the gefs and you won’t have to worry about the SER too much

 

[Chazwin]

Also wudge

a 1036 high in that location would make a fairly strong wedge at that

 

[cd2play]

In that sort of warmup/cold front pattern for a while longer looks like

Katy Perry: It’s hot and it’s cold; it’s yes and it’s no….

 

[cd2play]

a 1036 high in that location would make a fairly strong wedge at that

70 west of apps and 50 East. Lol

 

[Ollie Williams]

Anyone got anything on the winter of 75-76? I see it snowed here in November then the rest of the winter was meh

Based on Webber's data file, there was snow on:

• 11/23 - Mountain Snow + 1in in the Triangle
• 12/25-12/26 - Mountain Snow (I-85 Cutoff)
• 1/17 - Coastal Dusting SE I-85
• 2/2 - 2/3 - Light Dusting in mountains + SW of Charlotte

It's interesting to see snow recording towards Christmas and Thanksgiving, but the entire winter was meh.

 

[SD]

Based on Webber's data file, there was snow on:

• 11/23 - Mountain Snow + 1in in the Triangle
• 12/25-12/26 - Mountain Snow (I-85 Cutoff)
• 1/17 - Coastal Dusting SE I-85
• 2/2 - 2/3 - Light Dusting in mountains + SW of Charlotte

It's interesting to see snow recording towards Christmas and Thanksgiving, but the entire winter was meh.

Been getting 75-76 as an analog and saw the 2.6 in November so it made me curious. It was fairly chilly through mid Jan it looks like

 

[Chazwin]

Based on Webber's data file, there was snow on:

• 11/23 - Mountain Snow + 1in in the Triangle
• 12/25-12/26 - Mountain Snow (I-85 Cutoff)
• 1/17 - Coastal Dusting SE I-85
• 2/2 - 2/3 - Light Dusting in mountains + SW of Charlotte

It's interesting to see snow recording towards Christmas and Thanksgiving, but the entire winter was meh.

That’s very much like the winter of 2000-‘01 went

 

[Ollie Williams]

That’s very much like the winter of 2000-‘01 went

At least 2000-'01 got a good 6in+ snow along western NC and many 1 in+ events. '75-'76 was weaksauce.