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Pattern Novemburrr

For the period 11/21-26, today's 12Z EPS mean is by a good margin the coldest yet of any run for the Midwest, the Plains, and the E US, including the SE!

Is this a fluke? Or is this the start of the model realization that the last part of November will actually be quite cold in the E half of the country and not just cooled by Pacific airmasses? Stay tuned!

Next up: the Bleaklies! Any guesses as to how bleak? But don't fret if they're bleak as they are an extension of the 0Z EPS and they're usually bleak. Had there been Bleaklies based on this run, there's no telling how unbleak they may have been.
 
GaWx said:
For the period 11/21-26, today's 12Z EPS mean is by a good margin the coldest yet of any run for the Midwest, the Plains, and the E US, including the SE!

Is this a fluke? Or is this the start of the model realization that the last part of November will actually be quite cold in the E half of the country and not just cooled by Pacific airmasses? Stay tuned!

Next up: the Bleaklies! Any guesses as to how bleak? But don't fret if they're bleak as they are an extension of the 0Z EPS and they're usually bleak. Had there been Bleaklies based on this run, there's no telling how unbleak they may have been.
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Sneaky suspicion they end up near normal through early December then start to contract the pv poleward and slightly warm mid to late December. It's such a chaotic touch and go pattern in the Npac/west Can evolution can they be trusted?
 
SD said:
Sneaky suspicion they end up near normal through early December then start to contract the pv poleward and slightly warm mid to late December. It's such a chaotic touch and go pattern in the Npac/west Can evolution can they be trusted?
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We'll see. I forgot to add that today's 12Z GEFS and GEPS were also colder than their 0Z runs, and that the 12Z GEFS like the 12Z EPS was the coldest run yet for 11/21-6.
 
GaWx said:
We'll see. I forgot to add that today's 12Z GEFS and GEPS were also colder than their 0Z runs, and that the 12Z GEFS like the 12Z EPS was the coldest run yet for 11/21-6.
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Maps, Larry, maps ... yours have good Mojo ... ?
 
GaWx said:
For the period 11/21-26, today's 12Z EPS mean is by a good margin the coldest yet of any run for the Midwest, the Plains, and the E US, including the SE!

Is this a fluke? Or is this the start of the model realization that the last part of November will actually be quite cold in the E half of the country and not just cooled by Pacific airmasses? Stay tuned!

Next up: the Bleaklies! Any guesses as to how bleak? But don't fret if they're bleak as they are an extension of the 0Z EPS and they're usually bleak. Had there been Bleaklies based on this run, there's no telling how unbleak they may have been.
Click to expand...
Bleaklies slightly AN second half.
 
SD said:
Whoa I think the eps members may have touched just about every single outcome everyone on here would want to see in late November. 40 degree spreads, snow, highs in the 30s, highs in the 70s, lows in the 60s, lows in the 10s. Good grief, chaos
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Here’s what will happen . 3 days of CAD with warmer temps west , then CAD breaks for 2 days and we warm up nicely before a big front advances . This big front will bring snow reports from Birmingham north, only Nashville will see good accumulation outside the mountains though. After some highs in the mid- upper 70s ( 80s coast) and 60 degree lows , Raleigh drops to 27 as the front passes overnight . Following day the high is 44 under windy sunny skies, lows that night drop with reports of 16 degrees in colder spots , RDU misses dropping below 20 for first time in 3 years with a low of 21 . It then warms up to 50s, before a day of CAD as it gradually warms up into December . There you go !
 
I saw the 12z gefs and eps on Twitter and they are remarkably similar in the post 240hr timeframe. I'm wondering if anyone agrees with them today or they both a fluke run. If so, why and if not, why not?
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Been a while since I’ve seen bn heights in Canada like this, this can fail so bad and ridge the SE hard if it goes wrong, but the cold air is in reach View attachment 94784
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It doesn’t take much for us the fail in the SE. Until NC breaks away and sinks into the ocean, the SE has like a handicap parking space the SE ridge.
 
Arcc said:
It doesn’t take much for us the fail in the SE. Until NC breaks away and sinks into the ocean, the SE has like a handicap parking space the SE ridge.
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Real issue is those states west of the mountains , sink those and we won’t ever have to worry about extreme cold here .
 
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