• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Novemburrr

SD said:
View attachment 95611

This thing is close to bringing in some legit snow
Click to expand...
I posted this a.m. it wasnt far off on all 3 ops from 0z @ h5. Trending even better at 12z/ euro espacilly. Need to back the flow just a tad more and sharpen the trough, notch quicker and we have a decent shot. Doable definitely and Not Guranteed as well
 
I like it better showing a slim chance 7 days out with room to work with instead of it showing a massive snow storm 7 days out and for it to go poof.
 
KATL, itself, will be close to a freeze tonight. They do much better with cold air advection/wind than with radiational cooling/calm. Will there be just enough NW wind to get them there? I think so but it will be close:

KFFC NWS forecast:
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

ATHENS 31 53 29 56 / 0 0 0 0
ATLANTA 32 52 32 56 / 0 0 0 0

This 12Z GFS 2m map implies a slight warm bubble that may just keep them barely above 32:

gfsop_12_t2ms_gc_h_0024.png

But the 12Z Euro and CMC say right on 32:
ecmop_12_t2ms_gc_h_0024.png

canop_12_t2ms_gc_h_0024.png
 
47 degrees and dropping here in Roanoke. Wind is absolutely freezing as I’m closing up the golf course tonight. Some virga overhead is interesting, must be a little piece of energy still left.
 
LukeBarrette said:
47 degrees and dropping here in Roanoke. Wind is absolutely freezing as I’m closing up the golf course tonight. Some virga overhead is interesting, must be a little piece of energy still left.
Click to expand...
Gotta be like the 5th or so time virga has occurred this November.
 

Attachments

  • E26DA423-D2D9-405C-8982-21545E98D66A.png
    E26DA423-D2D9-405C-8982-21545E98D66A.png
    1.2 MB · Views: 17
GaWx said:
KATL, itself, will be close to a freeze tonight. They do much better with cold air advection/wind than with radiational cooling/calm. Will there be just enough NW wind to get them there? I think so but it will be close:

KFFC NWS forecast:
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

ATHENS 31 53 29 56 / 0 0 0 0
ATLANTA 32 52 32 56 / 0 0 0 0

This 12Z GFS 2m map implies a slight warm bubble that may just keep them barely above 32:

View attachment 95616

But the 12Z Euro and CMC say right on 32:
View attachment 95617

View attachment 95618
Click to expand...

This is why I never believed it would happen. The models were complete trash with today's air mass, essentially 5 days ago it was supposed to be in the 40s today and mid 20s tonight. Here we are 5 days later experiencing upper 50s and my low is only forecast to be 30, and I'm usually a good 4 degrees cooler than KATL. My guess is they hit 34 or 35.
 
J.C. said:
This is why I never believed it would happen. The models were complete trash with today's air mass, essentially 5 days ago it was supposed to be in the 40s today and mid 20s tonight. Here we are 5 days later experiencing upper 50s and my low is only forecast to be 30, and I'm usually a good 4 degrees cooler than KATL. My guess is they hit 34 or 35.
Click to expand...

1. Yes, I remember you saying over the weekend that KATL first freeze may not be til (mid?) December and I then said it had a good chance for tonight.

2. What elevation are you at? Higher elevations may do better tonight since it isn't radiational.

3. When KATL has enough NW wind bringing in enough CAA, even they do reasonably well in relation to other ATL areas nearby as opposed to sticking out real badly like a warm thumb. I still say the amount of NW wind will be the key. Will it be too light to help them or not? When a NW wind is blowing pretty steadily, they sometimes have been within about 2 F of much of the ATL metro outside of far N burbs.
 
GaWx said:
1. Yes, I remember you saying over the weekend that KATL first freeze may not be til (mid?) December and I then said it had a good chance for tonight.

2. What elevation are you at? Higher elevations may do better tonight since it isn't radiational.

3. When KATL has enough NW wind bringing in enough CAA, even they do reasonably well in relation to other ATL areas nearby as opposed to sticking out real badly like a warm thumb. I still say the amount of NW wind will be the key. Will it be too light to help them or not? When a NW wind is blowing pretty steadily, they sometimes have been within about 2 F of much of the ATL metro outside of far N burbs.
Click to expand...

1. They may get a chance later this week too.
2. 1148' I actually don't drop as low as some of the other areas around me either, my locale relies heavily on the CAA to get to my coldest temps. The low spots immediately around me are around 1000-1050', and they are always colder on calm nights. On calm cooling nights my temps will drop rapidly until around midnight, go up and down until about 3 hours before sunrise, and then start dropping again.
3. The northwest winds have really picked up now, so its going to be close. ?

An example on a calm evening for me:

1637617174328.png1637617198736.png
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top