AJ1013
Member
Truly feels like a cold January night, lows this time of year down here are usually around 70F. This is unreal.
Some flurries in ellenwood!Somehow still getting a steady flurry in the northern ATL suburbs from the remaining clouds. Flurries picked up in intensity over the last hour from the occasional flake to steadily coming down. Too dry for any real impacts. View attachment 176442
@GaWx I'm not a statistician like you are, doesn't these Early flurries break a record or two? Like Kilm? Historic fer sure.
Feels like nearly every spot in NC has gotten at least flurries today except for the Triangle lol RIPLight snow, car tops actually turning white! Earliest snow I've ever seen
I wonder what the winter of 76-77 was like.More on the record cold specifically for my area: My city’s official low (KSAV) as of 7AM EST was way down to 28 F, which beats the 31 record low for the day (records back to 1874). Even the Hunter AAF base station, which is ~6-8 miles to the SE (closer to the ocean), was able to get down to 29.
Not only that but also:
-last time it was this cold or colder this early in season at KSAV was 1976
-colder than 78% of coldest for ENTIRE November
-last time it was colder in entire November was 2014
I wonder what the winter of 76-77 was like.
Here are the progs for Nov 11th lows from the latest ICON/CMC/Euro/GFS/UKMET
1. GA
-SAV: 29/31/34/34/35
-NE ATL (Chamblee): 25/23/29/34/32
2. SC
-GSP: 23/21/29/27/29
-CAE: 28/32/33/32/34
3. NC
-CLT: 25/30/31/29/32
-RDU: 28/34/32/32/35
—————————
Average for each model for the 6 cities:
ICON: 26.3
CMC: 28.5
Euro: 31.3
GFS: 31.3
UKMET: 32.6
Any guesses for:
1. Which model for the 6 cities averaged out will do best?
2. Which model for the 6 cities averaged out will do worst?
———————
My guesses:
1. Best: Euro/GFS (tie)
2. Worst: ICON
Edit: I’m guessing that the average low for these 6 cities will be 30.5F.
And my low of 27 was 3 above my predicted low. Considering all the snow and record cold so many saw in the Eastern US, I feel like the kid who didn't get invited to the party. I got my first freeze and that's about all I can say for my backyard.I think we beat our projected low by about 5 degrees this morning. I’m sitting at 23 degrees. Forecast low was 28. How bout that for a November freezeView attachment 176446