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November 2025
- Thread starter packfan98
- Start date
Floodlight watch tomorrow night 
Just as NWS starts mentioning flurries the models back off.... 
Well, impressive line of storms in the foothills. Boone down to 54 from 60 earlier. She’s a comin
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Pretty good squalls still on the HRRR
Downeastnc
Member
Hmmmmm
Monday Night
A slight chance of snow showers between 1am and 4am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 30. West wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Monday Night
A slight chance of snow showers between 1am and 4am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 30. West wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Near Clingmans Dome at ~5,500' (top of summit is 6,643'):
I would call that winter and run....
I would call that winter and run....
Getting several flake reports across WNC, and App Ski/Linville Ridge webcams show them well!
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Going to drive up to Bald Knob (4400 feet) tomorrow afternoon and get some snow squalls...
Most models have 2-4 inches for them and its short drive from Blacksburg so why not!
Last few core runs of HRRR have showed this moderate band of snow making it into Blacksburg between 8-10 pm. Would not be surprised to see some light accmulations T to 1 inch possible. NAM 3 km and RAP both saying the same thing. I think this could be much more juicy than modeled especially with the strength of this vortmax being the main reason for the band.
I might just have to set an alarm and do some floodlight searching, Nov flakes would be a nice appetizer
Dropping like a rock at Sugar..she comin’
Snowguns cranking. Winter has begun 
It’s cranking over Lake Michigan
It’s trying to pivot SW to Chicago. If it don’t make it, it’s gonna be a fairly big bustIt’s cranking over Lake Michigan
NCSNOW
Member
White ground up top beech.
Fascinating very detailed update from Chi NWSO explaining how difficult this forecast is:
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 944 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE FORD AND
BENTON COUNTIES, OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE MANY, MANY
HEADLINES IN EFFECT. ALSO, NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST GRIDS
THIS EVENING.
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS (CAMS) OFTEN STRUGGLE WITH THE EXACT
DETAILS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW, MUCH LIKE THEY DO WITH SPECIFICS OF
SUMMERTIME CONVECTION. THIS WAS THE CASE THIS EVENING WITH THE
MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF THE LAKE INDUCED/ENHANCED MESO-LOW, WHICH
MOVED INLAND INTO NORTHERN IN HOURS EARLIER THAN MOST CAM
GUIDANCE HAD BEEN INDICATING. THE FASTER AND FARTHER EAST TRACK
OF THIS MESOLOW HAS RESULTED IN CAMS BEING WRONG IN THEIR
DEPICTION OF A LARGE INITIAL WESTWARD SURGING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
PLUME WELL INLAND INTO NORTHEASTERN IL LATE THIS EVENING.
RATHER, THIS MESOLOW HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTH
CENTRAL INDIANA WITH A COHERENT, INTENSE SINGLE BAND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EXTENDING NORTHWEST THEN NORTH UP THE SPINE OF THE
LAKE FROM THIS MESOLOW. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A SHARP
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THE MESOLOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS TROUGH AXIS HAS BEEN STEADILY
MOVING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LAKE, WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH HELPING PUSH THE
LAKE EFFECT PLUME STEADILY WESTWARD.
AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE LAKE, ANTICIPATE
THAT WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LAKE PLUME SHOULD PUSH IT INTO
NORTHEAST IL BETWEEN 11 PM AND MIDNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
HOW FAR WEST THIS PLUME WILL GET INTO NE IL BEFORE BECOMING
QUASI-STATIONARY FOR A TIME, THEN LIKELY SHIFTING BACK EASTWARD
TOWARD AND ACROSS NORTHWEST IN MONDAY. REALLY NOT PUTTING A TON
OF STOCK IN CAM GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT, SO ONCOMING MIDNIGHT
SHIFT WILL BE NOWCASTING THIS BAND THROUGH THE NIGHT BASED ON
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
NO CHANGE TO THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY, WHICH IS CONFIRMED BY
A SPECIAL 0030Z VALPARAISO UNIVERSITY SOUNDING FROM THIS
EVENING. STILL ANTICIPATE SNOWFALL RATES OF AT LEAST 2-3 INCHES
PER HOUR WITHIN THE HEAVIEST ELEMENTS OF THIS BAND. DEPENDING ON
HOW LONG THE BAND BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY, IT IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE ISOLATED TOTALS PUSHING OR EVEN
EXCEEDING A FOOT BEFORE THE BAND BEGINS SHIFTING EASTWARD.
CURRENT TRENDS WOULD SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT LAKE OR COOK COUNTY IL
COULD BE THAT WESTWARD TERMINUS THAT SEES SOME OF THE HEAVIER
TOTALS.
WHERE EVER THE BAND IS DURING RUSH HOUR TOMORROW MORNING, TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE.
- IZZI
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 944 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE FORD AND
BENTON COUNTIES, OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE MANY, MANY
HEADLINES IN EFFECT. ALSO, NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST GRIDS
THIS EVENING.
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS (CAMS) OFTEN STRUGGLE WITH THE EXACT
DETAILS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW, MUCH LIKE THEY DO WITH SPECIFICS OF
SUMMERTIME CONVECTION. THIS WAS THE CASE THIS EVENING WITH THE
MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF THE LAKE INDUCED/ENHANCED MESO-LOW, WHICH
MOVED INLAND INTO NORTHERN IN HOURS EARLIER THAN MOST CAM
GUIDANCE HAD BEEN INDICATING. THE FASTER AND FARTHER EAST TRACK
OF THIS MESOLOW HAS RESULTED IN CAMS BEING WRONG IN THEIR
DEPICTION OF A LARGE INITIAL WESTWARD SURGING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
PLUME WELL INLAND INTO NORTHEASTERN IL LATE THIS EVENING.
RATHER, THIS MESOLOW HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTH
CENTRAL INDIANA WITH A COHERENT, INTENSE SINGLE BAND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EXTENDING NORTHWEST THEN NORTH UP THE SPINE OF THE
LAKE FROM THIS MESOLOW. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A SHARP
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THE MESOLOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS TROUGH AXIS HAS BEEN STEADILY
MOVING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LAKE, WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH HELPING PUSH THE
LAKE EFFECT PLUME STEADILY WESTWARD.
AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE LAKE, ANTICIPATE
THAT WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LAKE PLUME SHOULD PUSH IT INTO
NORTHEAST IL BETWEEN 11 PM AND MIDNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
HOW FAR WEST THIS PLUME WILL GET INTO NE IL BEFORE BECOMING
QUASI-STATIONARY FOR A TIME, THEN LIKELY SHIFTING BACK EASTWARD
TOWARD AND ACROSS NORTHWEST IN MONDAY. REALLY NOT PUTTING A TON
OF STOCK IN CAM GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT, SO ONCOMING MIDNIGHT
SHIFT WILL BE NOWCASTING THIS BAND THROUGH THE NIGHT BASED ON
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
NO CHANGE TO THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY, WHICH IS CONFIRMED BY
A SPECIAL 0030Z VALPARAISO UNIVERSITY SOUNDING FROM THIS
EVENING. STILL ANTICIPATE SNOWFALL RATES OF AT LEAST 2-3 INCHES
PER HOUR WITHIN THE HEAVIEST ELEMENTS OF THIS BAND. DEPENDING ON
HOW LONG THE BAND BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY, IT IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE ISOLATED TOTALS PUSHING OR EVEN
EXCEEDING A FOOT BEFORE THE BAND BEGINS SHIFTING EASTWARD.
CURRENT TRENDS WOULD SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT LAKE OR COOK COUNTY IL
COULD BE THAT WESTWARD TERMINUS THAT SEES SOME OF THE HEAVIER
TOTALS.
WHERE EVER THE BAND IS DURING RUSH HOUR TOMORROW MORNING, TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE.
- IZZI
iGRXY
Member
I love a good cold front. I’ve dropped to 43 already with a very stiff NNW wind at 14mph
J1C1111
Member
I feel the same. I just wish we could get them more often like winters of old and with some more staying power.