Brent
Member
Oh no it's starting already 
now we've only had like 2 days below 40 for a low so far 
and it's pushing 80 til Friday
now we've only had like 2 days below 40 for a low so far and it's pushing 80 til Friday
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November 2025
- Thread starter packfan98
- Start date
I am hoping for a good freeze to kill the last of the bugs. I've had a couple of cartop frozen dew events, but that doesn't cut it. I like the maps above for day seven along with what RAH stated:
****Last part of the Long-Range Discussion"
Temperatures: Near normal Thu/Thu night, with highs in the 60s and
lows in the mid 30s to low 40s. Moderation Fri/Fri night ahead of
the cold front, with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s and lows in the
50s. Low confidence in the temperature forecast for Sat and Sun
given the fropa differences. However, there is good agreement and an
increasing potential for the coldest air of the season to arrive
Mon/Mon night. Central NC could see a hard freeze Mon night, with
lows in the mid 20s to low 30s possible.
****Last part of the Long-Range Discussion"
Temperatures: Near normal Thu/Thu night, with highs in the 60s and
lows in the mid 30s to low 40s. Moderation Fri/Fri night ahead of
the cold front, with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s and lows in the
50s. Low confidence in the temperature forecast for Sat and Sun
given the fropa differences. However, there is good agreement and an
increasing potential for the coldest air of the season to arrive
Mon/Mon night. Central NC could see a hard freeze Mon night, with
lows in the mid 20s to low 30s possible.
You're in the part of the country where rapid changes from warm to cold (and back to warm) are normal. I lived in Denver for a while (many years back) and the daily changes were insane. We would be in the 50s at lunch time and then in the teens with heavy snow by supper. Then the next day (or two) it would clear up, temps would jump into the 50s again and the snow would be gone. Denver is a little colder than your location but the general weather setups are the same (continental climate with an unimpeded airflow to your north).Oh no it's starting already
NCSNOW
Member
0Z Euro trying to drop some precip east of mtns in this cold airmass. A Novelty Graupel shower would be a huge win for early November
NCSNOW
Member
0Z Canadian
The NW Atlanta burbs and favored NE mountains may see some mood flakes as the eastern trough for early next week continues to model deeper with almost every run. Wow.
Dig that trough much more and we are going to start having a severe weather chat about Saturday and Sunday
I had been wondering when a model was gonna do this. Itās such a beast of a trough on modeling that you figure eventually one of emās gonna try for some mischief
Brent
Member
True but still we only average .8 this month
it's not guaranteed to do anythingI mean it was like 75 the day before the blizzard in 2011 but I'm gonna need more proof that is not 3 weeks out(this dude is known for this nonsense here)
From what someone else already said whatever evidence they had has already gone away so yeah
Oh no it's starting already
Brent
Member
That would definitely lay down some snow pack if nothing else
Personally I'd be surprised if we get a real snow before Christmas but maybe I'll be wrong
it has been a bizarre weather year here though I mean pretty much everything has gone against usual consensus. I mean we had a day in the 60s in August of all months...I'm kind of impressed our first freeze was on track after all that
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The ICON really digs that energy with the trough which ends up delivering a solid NW flow event. Even some shenanigans outside the mountains.
ICON says layer up on Monday. Middle of the day temps with wind gusting to 25-30 mph.
lmao?
Crazy one run change from the euro. definitely a time to lean on ensembles!
Goodness
Tsappfrog20
Member
as you'd expect! for my own sake i think i hope this just goes back to being a cold few days and not having to model watch for a flizzard that will never happen.
can't ignore this sort of swing, but i think its best everyone keeps expectations at a nice chilly monday-tuesday until proven otherwise. i will say given the fact that the 540 line is approaching the I-40 corridor on the ensemble mean, i wouldn't call you crazy for rooting for some silliness under such an anomalous trough. but what you really need is something like the euro op shows, where you've got that extra little shortwave thing south of that closed contour in the northeast, just to squeeze some extra synoptic oomf for any precip to develop
For sure man, just glad to be back to tracking Winter stuff. Crazy look off the EPS with these temp anomalies..
AJ1013
Member
Need to get a little more negative tilt with the trough
Tsappfrog20
Member
Does anyone else get giddy when these changes and weather stuff starts showing up on the models or is it just me?
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Starting to get flashes at the end of the some ens of the beginning of the pattern that the weeklies have been advertising, prob to early but the -NAO looks legit and starting to see some changes in the pac
Would be cool to go early season wavelengths and continue to pound the Strat PV with N Central Pac low Wave 1, while still being able to have some level of western ridging to go along with developing blocking. Early climo and all, but whatever
iGRXY
Member
The EPS and Euro digging the energy further and further west is hopefully a winter trend we see. As far as this goes next week, this has potential for my area of the woods to get some token flakes and not get above 35.
lexxnchloe
Member
Soil temps will limit accums guys letās temper expectations!
I still for the life of me donāt understand why people get excited for cold in Nov or Dec. Show me some temps well below delta in Jan and Feb and Iāll get excited. We have never been a front loaded winter area.
It doesnāt matter how you load! Front or back, when you see flakes fly in the South, itās magical
Anytime itās cold is exciting. Plus itās rarely cold in November or December honestly. Itās fun to try something different and see where it goes.
iGRXY
Member
Cold regardless should always be celebrated. We roast 6 months out of the year.
I don't understand why anyone would not want a cold & wintry December. I mean unless you just don't give a darn about snow around Christmas. Personally, if I had to pick a month to have a Winter storm & I had to pick between December, January & February it would be December every time. I would sacrifice the rest of Winter to just get a snowstorm in the days/weeks leading up to Christmas. You give me Winter storm rolling in the afternoon of the last day of school for the kids before Christmas break, that is peak life right there.
100% agree with you here, Mitch. 12/8/17 was truly a Christmas miracle for my wife and I down here in Alabama. We got married in June of that year and this was our very first home before we had kids. Our first Christmas in our own home and we got 4.5 inches of heavy wet snow that day. An event Iāll never forget and pray that I get to experience again with our small children. It was so surreal.
