Epic rainbow here, one of the brightest I've ever seen.
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November 2025
- Thread starter packfan98
- Start date
Looks like this rain event might over perform .4 so far
Didn’t have a half inch of rain on my bingo card today.
Quite the over performer last night, 1.00 on the nose
NCSNOW
Member
We all take a artic plunge / early November style next Mon/Tues. Then look tranquil till we start the last week of November. Then it's winter from then on per CFS. Good times ahead.
NCSNOW
Member
Weak La-Nina's never fail to deliver the cold shots. But you have to have some blocking help from Atlantic to keep them locked in for a few days and improve the ole Timing window of opportunity.
Needles are always hard to thread in the south. But I'd rather take my chances with this, than sitting here watching Canada get blasted all winter with a pacific firehose.
Needles are always hard to thread in the south. But I'd rather take my chances with this, than sitting here watching Canada get blasted all winter with a pacific firehose.
if that ridge over greenland can't stick around this looks like how you get a clear-sky high of 50 and a high of 70 within a few days of each other this time of year. that's what the euro OP does on the 0z run, nothing to stop our (albiet stout) trough from slipping away and failing to reload with ridging nudging in from the SW and nrn atlantic blocking shifting eastward.
the EPS and AIFS ens keep 2m anom means down through the end of the week thanks to a secondary weaker trough rotating in, but i'd put low confidence on that until we figure out that greenland situation
the EPS and AIFS ens keep 2m anom means down through the end of the week thanks to a secondary weaker trough rotating in, but i'd put low confidence on that until we figure out that greenland situation
Bigedd09
Member
First freeze for many definitely looking likely early next week
Yeah, we can bloviate about epic Decembers all we want, but the reality is if this doesn't change that is going to be a struggle.
I definitely do not intend (won't say never lol) of falling into the trap of looking at the weeklies or these long range ensemble runs ever again with any expectation they won't change inside D7-10, because the reality is LR ensembles still suck - badly.
well hey that's not a bad trend with atlantic ridges trying to connect there lol
If only they'd fail this way all winter lol. Somehow, whenever it's the heart of winter they seem to always fail the opposite way.
We've seen quite a bit of ridging near Greenland over the last couple of months, but it definitely has lacked staying power.
if anyone wants some more "the GEFS is useless" ammo, here's plenty. 0z 10/31 runs from gefs/eps
0z EPS today
aaand 8-run gefs trend. welcome to the party dummy
0z EPS today
aaand 8-run gefs trend. welcome to the party dummy
When the jet is doing this in early November you know to keep the short sleeve shirts out for early January 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The base state has not (& still does not) support prolonged western troughing through early winter.
We might get a brief blip of -PNA mid-November on the back of a weak -EAMT before we likely go right back to the well of +PNA that has dominated the fall thus far as the MJO orbit goes into the Western Hemisphere.
Although the GEFS is usually overamped, the EPS's achilles heel with MJO forecasts is propagating the MJO across the Maritime Continent & into the Western Pacific and that's likely once again why its amplitude is so low here. This long-standing MJO bias w/ the EPS was documented over a decade ago & even despite all the improvements since, not much has fundamentally changed here from what I have seen.
https://webster.eas.gatech.edu/Papers/Kim2014.pdf
We might get a brief blip of -PNA mid-November on the back of a weak -EAMT before we likely go right back to the well of +PNA that has dominated the fall thus far as the MJO orbit goes into the Western Hemisphere.
Although the GEFS is usually overamped, the EPS's achilles heel with MJO forecasts is propagating the MJO across the Maritime Continent & into the Western Pacific and that's likely once again why its amplitude is so low here. This long-standing MJO bias w/ the EPS was documented over a decade ago & even despite all the improvements since, not much has fundamentally changed here from what I have seen.
https://webster.eas.gatech.edu/Papers/Kim2014.pdf
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Also, the first "warning-worthy" westerly wind event here in New Mexico usually shows up by the middle of October. Looks like we're going to be at least a month behind schedule on that this year and are likely to go the longest into the cold season without a wind event since our reliable high-res station records began nearly 40 years ago. Just a testament to how persistent/strong the western ridge has been.
MRKEVIN7575
Member
The euro weeklies are fun to look at, especially when they look cold and stormy way out in lala land lol. I guess when they get in the 7-10 day range, they become somewhat more believable. Hoping for a front loaded winter, which if it can carry over through beginning of Feb, i will take my chances from there
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The Euro weeklies have looked generally believable for weeks to me.
12z euro is an absolute nuke of a trough with next tuesday clear sky highs in the low 40s for the carolinas, mid 40s for most of the rest of the south. heck it even tops jacksonville out at 50. glad eye candy runs are back!
new EPS showing up well. could be a fun sunday night of front tracking
new EPS showing up well. could be a fun sunday night of front tracking
This is impressive for November, barely getting out the 30s during the day. Also wind chills in the teens after the front 
Guess who’s going on a cruise next week in the Bahamas.
I’m not trying to have it be in the 60’s down there what the heck. That’s impressive cold for November
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
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This look with warm lakes would produce helluva NW flow mountain snow regardless of what a global model shows at this point. Great look at this range!
MRKEVIN7575
Member
NCSNOW
Member
Yea I was looking for 1st big LES out of this somewhere up there. That's some cold air coming across an unfrozen lake. You would think cleveland, northern IN or PA areas would cash in biggly with this type of trajectory. We shall see. Must be awesome living in a lake effect area, knowing if the wind direction dials into a certain trajectory, you win the snow globe lotto.
I got .64 inches in the rain gauge to add to the 2.25 inches at my residence that fell during last week's two day rain event. It was nice to catch up on some of the precipitation we had been missing in the past couple of months. I rode through the park at Lake Wheeler and noticed that signs were up stating that the boat ramps were closed due to low water levels even after last week's rain.
even this update seems a bit timid from the CPC
Is this good?
This is a hilarious graph
Put it in January.
Yup. It always sucked when I went to the Abaco's in the winter and a stout cold front would push through to Miami. As they say over Bahamian radio "It gonna blow". Cold as balls too.Guess who’s going on a cruise next week in the Bahamas.
Euro AI just went jiggy with the NAO days 4-15. Here it is at day 15...
Atleast sever season is still going strong!
In my opinion....
GFS / GEFS is the worst modeling with high latitude blocking. EPS and CMCE are better...and this year we have the Euro AI ensemble to supplement, and it has been good with it too
I will give the GEFS this - it was better than the EPS and CMCE in the medium range with the big, slow moving cold outbreak last January that setup the cajun winter storm
GFS / GEFS is the worst modeling with high latitude blocking. EPS and CMCE are better...and this year we have the Euro AI ensemble to supplement, and it has been good with it too
I will give the GEFS this - it was better than the EPS and CMCE in the medium range with the big, slow moving cold outbreak last January that setup the cajun winter storm