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Pattern November 2024 💤 🔥

Turkey day looking mostly warm on the GFS in the southeast as the front approaches with the exception of TN, N MS, far N AL/GA/SC, and about half of NC. A pretty solid fropa seems to be in store of the wee hours of Black Friday with some NW flow snow.

Still looking cold after TG
 
From RAH:
**********cut from LR discussion*******************
The low-level flow will quickly turn S/SE on Wednesday as the
surface high moves off the Mid-Atlantic coast. So high temperatures,
while cooler than Tuesday, will still be slightly above normal, in
the upper-50s to mid-60s. Expect increasing clouds from the west as
a southern stream shortwave moves from the Central Plains into the
TN Valley on Thursday and Thursday night. Both the GFS and ECMWF
also depict a surface low riding along the front, which will lift
back north as a warm front. This unfortunately likely means a wet
and chilly Thanksgiving is on tap for the area. However, exact
details are still uncertain as the ECMWF depicts a more wound-up
area of low pressure moving well to our north and west, while the
GFS shows multiple waves of low pressure moving directly over the
Carolinas on Thursday and Thursday night. A farther north track like
the ECMWF/EPS would result in less widespread rain but more of a
convective threat that ends Thursday evening, while the GFS/GEFS
produce heavier rain but less instability (especially north) with
rain continuing into early Friday. As a result, the temperature
forecast is also highly uncertain, so for now take a middle of the
ground approach with forecast highs ranging from upper-50s far NW to
upper-60s far SE.
 
18Z EURO has temps in the mid 60’s mid morning on Thanksgiving and low 50’s by the late afternoon here. GFS, ICON, CMC have it coming in the evening. We are doing thanksgiving that afternoon and evening here so I’m rooting for the temps to collapse similar to the EURO. Nothing like thanksgiving dinner when it’s cold and Christmas lights look brighter and better when it’s cold.
 
iGRXY said:
18Z EURO has temps in the mid 60’s mid morning on Thanksgiving and low 50’s by the late afternoon here. GFS, ICON, CMC have it coming in the evening. We are doing thanksgiving that afternoon and evening here so I’m rooting for the temps to collapse similar to the EURO. Nothing like thanksgiving dinner when it’s cold and Christmas lights look brighter and better when it’s cold.
Click to expand...
I just need dry. Ill suck it up and wear shorts and im as pro cold as they come. But 11 - 330ish I really need dry
 
Euro has rain at 12z triad and out by 18z. See how she goes:

I believe 12z=7AM and 18Z= 12 noon. One of you Gurus correct me if I'm wrong.

GFS has 24 straight hours of Showers from sunrise Thursday into Black Friday. 3/4 inch qpf. Ugh

see how she trends

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