
SUMMARY...The Risk of a few tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and
isolated large hail may increase during the next few hours.
DISCUSSION...A mix of multicell clusters and transient supercell
structures should continue tracking east-northeastward from eastern
MS across parts of northern to west-central AL during the next few
hours. Here, a moist airmass (middle/upper 60s dewpoints) is
contributing to around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE where the latest VWPs show
0-6 km bulk shear of 60-70 knots. While storms have struggled across
the warm sector thus far owing to limited large-scale forcing for
ascent and weak low-level convergence, a low-level jet is expected
to overspread the area which may support a few longer-lived
multicell clusters and supercells over the next few hours. The
latest VWPs from GWX and HTX show 0-1 km SRH values of 250-300 m2/s2
ahead of the ongoing convection, which will support a risk of a few
tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and isolated large hail with any
sustained supercells or intense multicells across the area.