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New year naders ? (12/31-1/1 severe weather threat)

Lickwx said:
Not saying you weren’t , it’s just a typical pattern , the first day ends up a dud then it warms up overnight . Cold New Year’s Eve then warmer but not as warm as forecast New Year’s Day . Clouds and CAD break at RDU 35 minutes before sunset . Seen it happen quite a bit .

and I’m sorry:(
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It's ok I forgive you.

I agree with you though. So many times these SE ridge cutter patterns often get muted in our area due to wedging. Then we get the last second warm up right before the front then it's cold again
 
SD said:
It's ok I forgive you.

I agree with you though. So many times these SE ridge cutter patterns often get muted in our area due to wedging. Then we get the last second warm up right before the front then it's cold again
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There has to be a reason for it , your area seems to do ok though . You generally end up much warmer than RDU in these situations. Probably an elevation thing of some sort , the northwestern corner of the county where RDU is , is the most elevated portion of the county with the highest point being a hill over 500 feet just north of the airport .
 
Euro now has enough separation between the NYE/NYD wave and the leading northern wave that the wedge gets well south
 
SD said:
Might have to entertain the idea of ice in parts of Va and NW NC lol
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Quite incredible trends here, almost starting to wonder if we could get some wintry stuff to sneak in if we get one more cold push of this magnitude 121D75EE-0195-41F7-91C1-29BD39898B19.gif
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Quite incredible trends here, almost starting to wonder if we could get some wintry stuff to sneak in if we get one more cold push of this magnitude View attachment 60807
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It would be tough but if we delay the system anymore we might start trying to leak some close to freezing temps and dews toward the Roxboro area
 
SD said:
If we aren't careful NYE and NYD are going to be in the 40s and rain/clouds
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Wouldn't surprise me. The CAD always seems to hang around here longer than forecasted these days, and all the storms end up to our south and east.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Looking at things, to me it doesn’t look like much for areas East, the forcing just leaves when the best parameters move in, because the shortwave trough digs so far west, I could be wrong, anyways looks rough for areas in Dixie though
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Ya I have noticed that too. Looks like maybe GA and the Carolinas might be too Far East
 
Looking at the long range HRRR it looks like it wants to develop a few supercells in parts of Louisiana and Mississippi out ahead of the main line. This would be around mid afternoon Thursday.414594B6-294D-4EE1-8DD6-975B1A1E3D93.jpeg
 
Areas to the East will probably be in the whole high shear/low cape deal. Usually brings a decent little squall through with strong winds. Couple embedded rotating cells for anything that can get going, but usually towards the coasts, Southern GA, etc.
 
Shawn said:
Areas to the East will probably be in the whole high shear/low cape deal. Usually brings a decent little squall through with strong winds. Couple embedded rotating cells for anything that can get going, but usually towards the coasts, Southern GA, etc.
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I think CAD will limit the severe threat potential substantially around our area.
 
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