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New year naders ? (12/31-1/1 severe weather threat)

Myfrotho704_ said:
For winter time that’s a solid and expansive warm sector, even in March/April, it’s somewhat difficult to get warm sector this far north/expansive View attachment 60667View attachment 60668View attachment 60669View attachment 60670
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Now you've got rain breaking out early new years Eve while dews are still somewhat low. Fun to watch how the models resolve that in the coming days and see if we can get the insitu cad locked in at least for the more classic areas Thursday into early Friday before they finally get overwhelmed by southerly flow. Also watch the high moving through the lakes and the NE again I think there's too much south flow but that's going to attempt to sneak a CAD boundary south
 
SD said:
Now you've got rain breaking out early new years Eve while dews are still somewhat low. Fun to watch how the models resolve that in the coming days and see if we can get the insitu cad locked in at least for the more classic areas Thursday into early Friday before they finally get overwhelmed. Also watch the high moving through the lakes and the NE again I think there's too much south flow but that's going to attempt to sneak a CAD boundary south
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Yeah I agree good point, That could certainly help/hurt in some ways (CAD boundary further south reduces threat for some areas but also acts to enhance helicity)
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yeah I agree good point, That could certainly help/hurt in some ways (CAD boundary further south reduces threat for some areas but also acts to enhance helicity)
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Yeah if we get a well defined tmb those usually become problematic. Right now all indications are we obliterate any residual wedge and just have a uniform south flow but it's worth watching. Pretty impressive warm sector on the gfs it has a severe threat of varying degrees for parts of Ms/Al/Ga/SC/NC/Va/WV/Tn/Ky.
 
SD said:
Yeah if we can get a well defined tmb those usually become problematic. Right now all indications are we obliterate any residual wedge and just have a uniform south flow but it's worth watching. Pretty impressive warm sector on the gfs it has a severe threat of varying degrees for parts of Ms/Al/Ga/SC/NC/Va/WV/Tn/Ky.
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Yo @SD B33415E2-E7C3-474A-949B-4B12C204AC3C.pngD872A68B-4150-43C2-BEF9-762AC781AD43.png
 
SD said:
Haha that's wild. I wouldn't discount it but man it's hard to believe we get that solid of a cold push.
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Yeah I believe that’s way overdone, but that’s a look you don’t like seeing with a boundary like that (which will probably still be north than this) 42753344-EA19-426D-B0E8-BAB27EBB4BB3.pngC022F187-F59E-4264-9A2E-462B7CF5A6CA.png509018C8-2219-415B-934B-C75230402438.png
 
UKMET, one thing that sticks out to me is given the poor mid level lapse rates, likely underdone instability, and hodograph, these soundings are favorable for cool season mini supercells/line segmentsB8E6320B-905A-4AA7-BF57-0333245F0622.png9CECEDD2-70BA-4E8D-91BF-B53CFE974669.pngA75CD59A-6E85-4659-A4C5-3DC7E711F706.png
 
LATEST FROM NWS BMX
.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0133 PM CST Sun Dec 27 2020/

Long range guidance agreement continues to improve in regards to
the upcoming system on New Year`s Eve. Confidence continues to
increase in the possibility of a warm sector developing across
Central Alabama Thursday through Thursday night across much of the
area. At this point, we`ve gone ahead and added a low confidence
mention of severe storms, including isolated tornadoes, into the
HWO for Thursday. The questions mentioned in this morning`s
discussion still remain in terms of the evolution of the warm
sector and how much convection will be present during this
time frame. However, enough confidence exists to start at least
advertising the possibility of a severe threat across all of
Central Alabama and will further refine locations as we get closer
to the event. Localized flooding could also be an impact with
PWATs above 1.50 and strong gradient winds with gusts up to 40mph.
Stay tuned for additional details regarding this system over the
coming days.
 
SPC outlook has expanded the Thursday threat further north into parts of Central Alabama and Mississippi and a little west along the gulf coast. A 15% risk area has also been added for Friday along the southeast coast including parts of Georgia and the Carolinas.

Day 4 (Thursday/New Years Eve):
Thunderstorms may develop during the day along the front with additional convection forming further east across the moist sector. Model forecasts suggest that a low-level jet will increase in strength, moving north-northeastward across Alabama during the late afternoon. Convective development may be favored on the nose of the low-level jet during the late afternoon and early evening. Additional storms may develop further to the west across the lower Mississippi Valley. Low-level and deep-layer shear profiles should be favorable for severe storms across those two areas. The main threats would be for tornadoes and wind damage. At this point, there is some uncertainty concerning how far the quality moisture can advect northward. For this outlook, have drawn the 15 percent contour across central Alabama, where there appears to be a good chance surface dewpoints will reach the lower to mid 60s F.A6EE6264-DC81-4418-831F-E2BEC506378D.gif
Day 5 (Friday/New Years Day):
Thunderstorm development will be possible along and ahead of a cold front as a low-level jet moves northward across the Carolinas. Low-level and deep-layer shear profiles are forecast to be favorable for severe storms with the main threats being tornado and wind damage. Have placed the 15 percent contour in the area where the chance for quality moisture and convective potential is maximized, according the latest ECMWF solution.
A2A4DC0E-827C-4081-9C57-F8D39C14EBBB.gif
 
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WRAL mentioned the threat today. I thought we were going to be able to just enjoy a warm New Year's Day. I am so over the rain and storms. If we can't have snow at least we could enjoy a pleasant day.
 
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Brick Tamland said:
WRAL mentioned the threat today. I thought we were going to be able to just enjoy a warm New Year's Day. I am so over the rain and storms. If we can't have snow at least we could enjoy a pleasant day.
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If we aren't careful NYE and NYD are going to be in the 40s and rain/clouds
 
SD said:
2 things
#1 I was looking forward to the warmth.
#2 can we keep the testosterone and ED talk to the man cave thread? Not trying to be a hard ass but there's a time and place
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GFS is further west with the S/W trough, lol we may get a round of junk instead of a severe threat further East if that continues
 
SD said:
2 things
#1 I was looking forward to the warmth.
#2 can we keep the testosterone and ED talk to the man cave thread? Not trying to be a hard ass but there's a time and place
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Not saying you weren’t , it’s just a typical pattern , the first day ends up a dud then it warms up overnight . Cold New Year’s Eve then warmer but not as warm as forecast New Year’s Day . Clouds and CAD break at RDU 35 minutes before sunset . Seen it happen quite a bit .

and I’m sorry:(
 
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