New year naders ? (12/31-1/1 severe weather threat)

[Myfrotho704_]

Wanted to go ahead and make this thread, I don’t see any talk about this on here but I’ve seen plenty on twitter, but this upper air pattern is conductive of severe weather (even significant) across Dixie alley/Carolinas, as always, thermodynamics is a big question here for all areas
Upper air pattern on the GFS/ECMWF is pretty eerie with the ECMWF being the most bullish (could be to amped) but even a GFS solution would spell trouble if there’s enough cape
Haha I hope this isn’t a sign of things to
Come in spring

 

[Myfrotho704_]

ICON is all in with a deeply negatively tilted trough far south into texas, note the retreating CAD boundary/pseudo warm front

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Just plain ugly with a shortwave trough tilted like that, very ugly, this is a H5 presentation that supports significant severe weather, question still is CAPE

 

[JHS]

Looks like the system is getting slower. Did look like a Thursday storm, now looking to get pushed back into Friday. This will be very interesting once it gets into NAM range.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Looks like the system is getting slower. Did look like a Thursday storm, now looking to get pushed back into Friday. This will be very interesting once it gets into NAM range.

Definitely slowing down/trending towards more amplification, I almost wonder now if areas farther east could get off with less forcing with this sort of setup, this could Mean Dixie getting the bigger stuff

 

[BufordWX]

Looks like this is going to be a relatively slow moving system. I think the first severe threat will be Wednesday for parts of TX and LA and maybe into AR. The GFS shows ample instability for that area and I would not be shocked to see the SPC put out a day 4 15% region for parts of that area tomorrow. After that it looks like the central-eastern Southeast is at risk Thursday before moving to the Carolinas on Friday. Instability is still a question mark further east as well. I also wonder if the rainfall amounts will trend higher with this as well. Models are printing out ample totals around 1-4 inches currently. Overall, looks like a wet and stormy end to 2020.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

not often you see even max SCP that high as even as a max here in winter, CIPS should be interesting

 

[BufordWX]

Looks like this system has attracted the SPC’s attention. Already got a 15% region for both day 4(Wednesday) and day 5(Thursday) primarily along the immediate gulf coast. For now looks like areas further north are too much of a question mark do to potential lack in instability.

Day 4 (Wednesday):
In spite of weak instability, very strong wind profiles associated with the low to mid-level jet structure, could enable thunderstorms that obtain a severe threat. Cells that initiate well to the east of the front across the moist sector will have potential to become supercells. The main threat would be for a few tornadoes and isolated wind damage. The potential appears great enough to add a 15 percent contour for parts of the lower Mississippi Valley.

Day 5 (Thursday/New Years Eve):
Instability is forecast to remain weak from Wednesday into Thursday. However, strong wind profiles should offset this limitation, with the possibility of a severe threat continuing into Thursday. The main severe weather potential would be for an isolated tornado and wind damage threat with clusters that organize during the day. The wind damage threat could become more widespread if a squall-line can develop across the region. A 15 percent contour has been added to parts of the central Gulf Coast for Thursday to account for this possibility.
Day 6 (Friday/New Years Day):
A cold front is forecast to move eastward across the eastern Gulf Coast States and Carolinas. Thunderstorm development will be possible along and ahead of the front. Surface dewpoints in the 60s F along with weak instability and strong deep-layer shear could be enough for an isolated severe threat.
(No risk area highlighted at this time)

 

[Darklordsuperstorm]

James Spann already being pretty bullish on this system. Believes SPC will end up having to expand those risk areas.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This the moisture return you’d see in spring lol, highs near 70 with dews around 64-67

 

[Myfrotho704_]

?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Lol still with a 15% being issued and quite a synoptic scale pattern and look on a ensemble mean with a crazy double barrel jet signature, there’s nothing but crickets here

 

[Myfrotho704_]

CIPS is pretty bullish

 

[deltadog03]

I think the threat for SVR is increasing. I know we are going to lack CAPE, but with wind profiles are a bit alarming.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Euro introduced a solution I said a few days ago where forcing could leave for areas East because it digs so far west, but that’s worse for areas west

 

[SD]

Euro introduced a solution I said a few days ago where forcing could leave for areas East because it digs so far west, but that’s worse for areas west

Yeah it's looking that way we may just end up with a light band of rain

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yeah it's looking that way we may just end up with a light band of rain

Very close, that’s for sure, any trend back to a more progressive look puts us back in it, but if we continue to trend more amped/west, might be a nice warm day

 

[Myfrotho704_]

juicy, I’d watch that warm front/CAD boundary if we get a more iconish like solution

 

[Myfrotho704_]

For winter time that’s a solid and expansive warm sector, even in March/April, it’s somewhat difficult to get warm sector this far north/expansive

 

[jackendrickwx]

For winter time that’s a solid and expansive warm sector, even in March/April, it’s somewhat difficult to get warm sector thus far north/expansive View attachment 60667View attachment 60668View attachment 60669View attachment 60670

Yeah feels like usually I’m on the safe side of these setups. CADs almost always hold on a bit longer than expected