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Pattern NC Only Thread

atlwx said:
Oops. NC Only thread. Ha! Your little club has been tainted by a Georgia boy!

I told ya’ll (when discussed) it’d be dumb to split this stuff out. Sure. It’s annoying with the mostly Carolina stuff. But mildly. The NC/C folks are the best!


I’m sure a Georgia only thread would still be “1 of 1”.
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We need a bouncer.
 
Some of the models are drying up out east. Again I’m north of Charlotte. Hopeful we can get this our way too. Trying to decide if I get more gas for the generator or chance it.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Think it will be winter storm warning north of 85 and ice storm warning south. Just a guess.....
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Raleigh westward, south of 85 ice storm warning, jmho. My neck of the woods probably gets a winter storm warning, don't think we get ice storm warning criteria. I really wish we had solid analysis for the NE quadrant of NC. It's usually just me lol. Everything is always Clt to Rah and NW, lonely up here 😕🤣
 
SD said:
Id be shocked if it wasn't a winter storm warning everywhere but maybe the far east/se part of their cwa. Most will hit wsw sleet accumulation
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Unless they issue the warning based on their 3 day total map from this morning. Weird to me, not being that guy, but I think NWS way off with these ice accrual totals. Unless I'm misreading something
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RBR71 said:
Unless they issue the warning based on their 3 day total map from this morning. Weird to me, not being that guy, but I think NWS way off with these ice accrual totals. Unless I'm misreading something
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I think jack just answered this in the storm thread. So this is flat ice accrual totals, which means radial accrual would be much less. Seems confusing, think they would forecast radial since that's what is more representative of when power outages would be more or less likely to occur
 
RBR71 said:
Unless they issue the warning based on their 3 day total map from this morning. Weird to me, not being that guy, but I think NWS way off with these ice accrual totals. Unless I'm misreading something
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Ill be honest with, I don't see the point of ice storm warning when you could literally justify it with a winter storm warning. Maybe it's messaging but the measurables of each are basically the same.

That said yes I think those zr totals are high
 
SD said:
Ill be honest with, I don't see the point of ice storm warning when you could literally justify it with a winter storm warning. Maybe it's messaging but the measurables of each are basically the same.

That said yes I think those zr totals are high
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Oh now I agree with you on that. I think they've gotten to fancy with messaging over the years, makes things confusing imo, too many different "levels". Less is more applies here
 
I'm going to say it: If we dry slot into a minimal accruals, I'm going to ignore the models until we're 2-3 days out, and ridicule all the sensational twitter mets.

I'm not wishing for ice, but i've been running around with my head cut off trying to prepare for myself, mother and MIL (while working).
 
smast16 said:
I'm going to say it: If we dry slot into a minimal accruals, I'm going to ignore the models until we're 2-3 days out, and ridicule all the sensational twitter mets.

I'm not wishing for ice, but i've been running around with my head cut off trying to prepare for myself, mother and MIL (while working).
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There needs to be lessons learned here but it won't. Once models starting show a miller b, dry slotting became a real possibility, always has been and Mets should know that. Plus maybe time to start using the AI models a little more, they've been showing it, especially weathernext2 for a while now.
 
RBR71 said:
There needs to be lessons learned here but it won't. Once models starting show a miller b, dry slotting became a real possibility, always has been and Mets should know that. Plus maybe time to start using the AI models a little more, they've been showing it, especially weathernext2 for a while now.
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Problem is we (and others) buy into these biblical totals the models spit out and forget what storms in the past have taught us. Ofc there will always be the gulf blizzards and Helene’s that are generational events but usually we tend to come back to reality as we close in on a storm. Just like if this was an all snow event and we had models showing 24-36” with these insane qpf totals only to come back to a reasonable total the day before.
 
RBR71 said:
There needs to be lessons learned here but it won't. Once models starting show a miller b, dry slotting became a real possibility, always has been and Mets should know that. Plus maybe time to start using the AI models a little more, they've been showing it, especially weathernext2 for a while now.
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We need to shame some of the internet mets who post sensationalized posts more than 5 days out. They got the public riled up around Monday / Tuesday when those 1' to 2' snow total maps they were passing around. WE knew those maps where nothing but wall art, but the susan down the street doesn't.

I get the other side of the argument where people need time to prepare, but with out current supply infrastructure, what difference does it make? The shelves have been bare since Wednesday morning and my stores haven't been able to replenish.
 
Just had an interesting call from a good friend. He oversees 13 retail locations for a company based in Lexington with stores from Hickory to Greensboro, Mount Airy to Albemarle, and he was about to go into a conference call in 4 minutes with a decision about whether they'll be open tomorrow. He knows nothing about the weather and called me to ask what he should do. My gut was to close tomorrow at noon, and I think that's what he went with. Do y'all think that was a reasonable call? Kinda tough when you have such a broad region but they all have to be on the same schedule.
 
Lowtown said:
Just had an interesting call from a good friend. He oversees 13 retail locations for a company based in Lexington with stores from Hickory to Greensboro, Mount Airy to Albemarle, and he was about to go into a conference call in 4 minutes with a decision about whether they'll be open tomorrow. He knows nothing about the weather and called me to ask what he should do. My gut was to close tomorrow at noon, and I think that's what he went with. Do y'all think that was a reasonable call? Kinda tough when you have such a broad region but they all have to be on the same schedule.
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Whether it's the perfect call or not, he'll be able to let his staff go home safely and some last minute time to prepare. People over a few hours of profit is never the wrong call.
 
I interesting little model trend on the RGEM, specifically my location. You can see overall zr amounts shifting slight NW but at same time imby those amounts slightly increased. Probably narrowing down the corridor of ice accrual
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RBR71 said:
I swear looking at NAM this almost a non-event eastern half of state
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I'm 80% confident it will fill in by tonight's 0z run. When you see a really weird splotchiness on the maps, it usually fills in. 20% chance the dryslot is more legit since it does have support from some of the other models.
 
SD said:
Really starting to buy into models under doing the initial shot tomorrow between 20 and 0z will probably be wrong but let's see
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Better front end thump? Would not be first time they struggled with that
 
Would be nice if we could start seeing this on the modeling
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