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Pattern NC Only Thread

Probably only about nine people that care, but the event in SWNC this morning ended up producing at lower elevations than expected. I drove through Brevard and had a few slippery moments on the road 20min after sunrise. Dusting of snow and some ZR mixed in. D-1” up until about 4000’ or so when it ramped up some till 2-3” above 5500’
 
Wilmington afd for this weekend



Precipitation should begin as rain Friday Night, then gradually
transitioning over to freezing rain or sleet Saturday and Saturday
night as the cold air builds southward beneath the
precipitation being generated aloft. The GFS has trended colder
on its 12z run, limiting the strength and northward push of the
mid level warm nose which would imply less freezing rain and
more sleet/snow, however a large number of ensemble components
within the NBM continue to indicate warm enough 850- 700 mb
temps for freezing rain to be the primary P-type as the heart of
the low level cold air builds in Saturday night into early
Sunday. If you want to view a deterministic model that shows a
strong warm nose, check the 00z Monday ECMWF which has 700 mb
temps of +3C and 850 mb temps of +7C occurring with sub-freezing
surface temps and precipitation Saturday night.

In terms of the probabilities of various precipitation types, we`re up
to about a 70 percent chance of at least 0.01" of freezing rain, and
nearly 50 percent chance of 0.25" of freezing rain accumulating over a
48-hr period Saturday into Sunday night. Probabilities for snow are
lower given the anticipated thermal structure aloft but still are as
high as 40 percent in Wilmington and Florence for a measurable 0.1
inches of snow over the coming weekend.
 
MHX already harping the warm nose.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
A series of northern stream shortwaves will reinforce deep
troughing over the Eastern US late this week through early
next week. A strong cold front will push through the area late
Friday with Arctic high pressure building into the area from the
north setting the stage for maintaining cold temperatures
across the region. Low pressure will then develop along the
stalled front offshore and pass offshore late Saturday and
Saturday night bringing the moisture across the region with
increasing chances for seeing wintry precip across the region.
There is quite a bit of uncertainty with precipitation types as
there is expected be a warm nose that will allow for a melting
layer around 850mb and the depth of the cold air below. There is
increasing potential for a significant impacts with snow, sleet
and freezing rain all possible over the weekend, however it is
much too early to try to pinpoint where specific p-types will
set up. Stay tuned to the forecast over the next several days
with the increasing threat for wintry wx.
 
RBR71 said:
19.4 this morning. Looks like ice on top of snow becoming a real possibility around here.
Click to expand...
Lots of transition lines somewhere thru the state. As normal, the northern mountains, foothills, and extreme north Piedmont have the best odds of staying snow.
 
Looks like Wake county will mix for sure. Hope the zr stage will be short lived.

MBY early call :)

snow (heavy at times) -> sleet (heavy) -> zr (moderate) -> back to snow (intensity unknown)
 
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