• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern NC Only Thread

Probably only about nine people that care, but the event in SWNC this morning ended up producing at lower elevations than expected. I drove through Brevard and had a few slippery moments on the road 20min after sunrise. Dusting of snow and some ZR mixed in. D-1” up until about 4000’ or so when it ramped up some till 2-3” above 5500’
 
Wilmington afd for this weekend



Precipitation should begin as rain Friday Night, then gradually
transitioning over to freezing rain or sleet Saturday and Saturday
night as the cold air builds southward beneath the
precipitation being generated aloft. The GFS has trended colder
on its 12z run, limiting the strength and northward push of the
mid level warm nose which would imply less freezing rain and
more sleet/snow, however a large number of ensemble components
within the NBM continue to indicate warm enough 850- 700 mb
temps for freezing rain to be the primary P-type as the heart of
the low level cold air builds in Saturday night into early
Sunday. If you want to view a deterministic model that shows a
strong warm nose, check the 00z Monday ECMWF which has 700 mb
temps of +3C and 850 mb temps of +7C occurring with sub-freezing
surface temps and precipitation Saturday night.

In terms of the probabilities of various precipitation types, we`re up
to about a 70 percent chance of at least 0.01" of freezing rain, and
nearly 50 percent chance of 0.25" of freezing rain accumulating over a
48-hr period Saturday into Sunday night. Probabilities for snow are
lower given the anticipated thermal structure aloft but still are as
high as 40 percent in Wilmington and Florence for a measurable 0.1
inches of snow over the coming weekend.
 
MHX already harping the warm nose.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
A series of northern stream shortwaves will reinforce deep
troughing over the Eastern US late this week through early
next week. A strong cold front will push through the area late
Friday with Arctic high pressure building into the area from the
north setting the stage for maintaining cold temperatures
across the region. Low pressure will then develop along the
stalled front offshore and pass offshore late Saturday and
Saturday night bringing the moisture across the region with
increasing chances for seeing wintry precip across the region.
There is quite a bit of uncertainty with precipitation types as
there is expected be a warm nose that will allow for a melting
layer around 850mb and the depth of the cold air below. There is
increasing potential for a significant impacts with snow, sleet
and freezing rain all possible over the weekend, however it is
much too early to try to pinpoint where specific p-types will
set up. Stay tuned to the forecast over the next several days
with the increasing threat for wintry wx.
 
RBR71 said:
19.4 this morning. Looks like ice on top of snow becoming a real possibility around here.
Click to expand...
Lots of transition lines somewhere thru the state. As normal, the northern mountains, foothills, and extreme north Piedmont have the best odds of staying snow.
 
Looks like Wake county will mix for sure. Hope the zr stage will be short lived.

MBY early call :)

snow (heavy at times) -> sleet (heavy) -> zr (moderate) -> back to snow (intensity unknown)
 
Can we NC folks use this thread for getting the "mby" forecasts/guesses going? Trying to get a bead on the Triangle between how much IP vs ZR. I know it's still early.

Place your bets or something something..

It's going to vary a lot depending on where you are in the state.
 
CaryWx said:
Can we NC folks use this thread for getting the "mby" forecasts/guesses going? Trying to get a bead on the Triangle between how much IP vs ZR. I know it's still early.

Place your bets or something something..

It's going to vary a lot depending on where you are in the state.
Click to expand...
Going to be a big range between that @FallsLake dude and mby (I'm 2 miles from the wake line so might as well be wake).
 
Need an honest opinion about what I can expect in the Huntersville area. North of Charlotte and slightly above 85. Can we get lucky enough to get dry slotted and escape it all?
 
SD said:
At least for us we aren't seeing the sleet line rapidly race north on the nam and rgem Saturday night until at least 9-15z Sunday.
Click to expand...
The later we can go into Sunday with sleet will be nice. Once we switch over I'm looking for the precip backside on the radar and praying it doesn't keep filling in unless 925s (or maybe even 850s) begin to crash again, but think that will not occur until precip is over
 
RBR71 said:
I think I'm far enough east to avoid major issues. .25 ice washed away by cold rain
Click to expand...
It's still hard for me to believe we get a front/squall line of heavy rain/freezing rain out of this situation. That is within the realm of physics, but it seems really, really odd and like a long shot. Either way, I am hoping we get sleet. Otherwise, it will be days or longer without power.
 
Rain Cold said:
It's still hard for me to believe we get a front/squall line of heavy rain/freezing rain out of this situation. That is within the realm of physics, but it seems really, really odd and like a long shot. Either way, I am hoping we get sleet. Otherwise, it will be days or longer without power.
Click to expand...
I saw freezing rain and thunder only once in my 61 years. Not impossible but extremely rare here.
 
Rain Cold said:
It's still hard for me to believe we get a front/squall line of heavy rain/freezing rain out of this situation. That is within the realm of physics, but it seems really, really odd and like a long shot. Either way, I am hoping we get sleet. Otherwise, it will be days or longer without power.
Click to expand...
It’s also wild and hard for me to believe that we are going to get significant icing with 15-20 degree temps. I guess either some norms are going to be broken or the models are going to be wrong!
 
superjames1992 said:
It’s also wild and hard for me to believe that we are going to get significant icing with 15-20 degree temps. I guess either some norms are going to be broken or the models are going to be wrong!
Click to expand...
I remember it raining cats and dogs in 2002 during the Fox8 10pm news with it at 19 degrees. This is giving me similar vibes. Nobody knew how bad that was going to be to live through. A week with no power. Luckily, we had gas logs and lived camped out in front of them.
 
packfan98 said:
I remember it raining cats and dogs in 2002 during the Fox8 10pm news with it at 19 degrees. This is giving me similar vibes. Nobody knew how bad that was going to be to live through. A week with no power. Luckily, we had gas logs and lived camped out in front of them.
Click to expand...
I forget how cold it was in that storm, too. I was young, although I remember we were without power for a week and it was very cold. My parents said never again after that and bought a generator. Wish I had one of those now…
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top