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Pattern NC Only Thread

My residence near Lake Wheeler was finally in the bullseye yesterday. After getting 1.75 inches yesterday, another 1.16 was added to the rain gauge overnight for a total of 2.91 inches during the past twenty-four hours. If the rain can keep falling this week like this, it will go a long way towards replenishing the water tables in my neighborhood and erase the drought for the near term at least.
 
SD said:
The op euro is probably too high but I'm impressed by the 6 inch eps mean across much of the state.
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I get it that the euro and it's ensembles look so juicy and we all need that to be right. However I look at the 3k nam and I'm seeing that familiar trend of backing off of my totals. The 3k says my 80% pops on Thursday are gonna need revising. This is through 60hrs.Screenshot_20260721_064006_Chrome.jpg
 
Shaggy said:
I get it that the euro and it's ensembles look so juicy and we all need that to be right. However I look at the 3k nam and I'm seeing that familiar trend of backing off of my totals. The 3k says my 80% pops on Thursday are gonna need revising. This is through 60hrs.View attachment 196935
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My concern would be this verifying south of models not north. The initial big convective band should push out a nice OFB and help the front get farther south than modeled, we do this every time. I would think your area would be more likely to over perform than under.
 
SD said:
My concern would be this verifying south of models not north. The initial big convective band should push out a nice OFB and help the front get farther south than modeled, we do this every time. I would think your area would be more likely to over perform than under.
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I'm a big fan of seasonal trends and this year has been to reduce pops and totals as we approach go time. That has to break at some point and maybe this is the one.
 
Rare D3 moderate risk of excessive rainfall for ENC from the WPC, with discussion not ruling out the potential for a further upgrade.

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026
Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Jul 23 2026 - 12Z Fri Jul 24 2026

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS
NORTH CAROLINA...

...Southeast...

21Z update... The heavy rainfall mentioned for the Day 2 period
will persist across North Carolina and surrounding locations as the
tropical moisture continues to interact with the stalled frontal
boundary. Training/repeating of storms will focus an additional 2
to 4+ inches over North Carolina and portions of southern/southeast
Virgina bringing the 48-hr forecast of 4 to 9+ inches for the
region. There will likely be a fair amount of overlap in the QPF
footprint from the D2 period, which will already be well saturated
prior to this period. A Moderate was also raised central and
east/northeast North Carolina as scattered to widespread instances
of flash flooding is expected.

The stalled out front that has remained across the Southeast will
continue to plague the area with very heavy rainfall, as the
continuous stream of Gulf moisture from the Gulf funnels
northeastward along the front. Yet another day of heavy rain is
expected to impact the Carolinas as a result. The front may drift
ever so slightly further south and east which should clear all but
the Hampton Roads area of far southeast Virginia from the heavy
rainfall threat by Thursday, but for much of eastern North
Carolina, much of South Carolina, and portions of northern Georgia,
generally from Atlanta east, the heavy rainfall threat will
continue through Thursday. Once again, potential for very heavy
rainfall totals in many areas as are expected to see heavy rain
from Wednesday could mean further upgrades to the risks may be
needed, especially across eastern North Carolina. Ultimately, where
the heaviest rain falls both today and Wednesday should dictate if
further upgrades will be needed.
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SD said:
7.86. Its not impossible I double my ytd, if things get crazy I could actually double my last 12 months
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Impressive! I'm over 3" for the month (can't recall exact amount and Tempest app is down or something). Anyway, haven't had 4"+ for a month since last July. Should pass that easily this month
 
Downeastnc said:
Yeah walked out of work this morning and was like WTH was 82 at 7am....hot humid and windy. Now its just a matter of how much rain do we get, looks strange to see a flood watch after the dry start to the year.
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Feels like the front end of a tropical system outside this morning. I worry that the flood watch is going to be the KoD for us
 
SD said:
Feels like the front end of a tropical system outside this morning. I worry that the flood watch is going to be the KoD for us
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I'm as skeptical as it gets on my rain chances and what the models show but damn man the DP doesn't go below 75 ever and there's so much moisture flowing onshore I can't see how we don't dump water in the setup.
 
Shaggy said:
I'm as skeptical as it gets on my rain chances and what the models show but damn man the DP doesn't go below 75 ever and there's so much moisture flowing onshore I can't see how we don't dump water in the setup.
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That's how I feel but ive seen us fumble this before where the outflow pushes south of us and we just lose. Maybe this one will be different
 
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Trying to get Jim here for The downpours.


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Shaggy said:
We have a very solid SW wind cranking. Gut tells me fronts gonna have hard time crashing too far south
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Lets hope so. There are a lot of bullseyes painted over my house on various products I don't want to be let down now. I did the math and I'm still over 18 inches BN in the last 12 months
 
SD said:
That's how I feel but ive seen us fumble this before where the outflow pushes south of us and we just lose. Maybe this one will be different
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I rem when climo used to hold summer fronts back more than the models showed.
 
SD said:
Lets hope so. There are a lot of bullseyes painted over my house on various products I don't want to be let down now. I did the math and I'm still over 18 inches BN in the last 12 months
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Yeah this isn't a short term drought here. This is multi year stuff and I'm over 33 inches behind since the start of 2024
 
Looks like for most of us this will be Thur into Friday thing....looks like there will be several waves riding along the front so it will be off and on but when it is on the rain rates will probably be ridiculous. Good news is there is plenty of room in the creeks and rivers....I think the Tar at Greenville has been under 4-5 ft for months now.
 
Downeastnc said:
Looks like for most of us this will be Thur into Friday thing....looks like there will be several waves riding along the front so it will be off and on but when it is on the rain rates will probably be ridiculous. Good news is there is plenty of room in the creeks and rivers....I think the Tar at Greenville has been under 4-5 ft for months now.
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At Old Sparta, guys were launching 4 wheelers at the ramp and driving them up and down the river. Uber low, sand bars now have grass shoulder high. The Neuse has been a little higher with sig rains a few weeks back around Smithfield. It's going to take more than 4-6" to fill up the swamps, creeks and rivers. I'm at 16" YTD at the house, with 3" of that this month, but only 0.3" so far this week. I think our avg annual is somewhere around 47-50" at PGV.
 
Rain knocking on doorstep. I gotta make hay between now and sunrise. Front gonna get enough ump from outflows to be to my south after breakfast time imo. It aint moving fast, but its on the move after staying staionary past 18 hours in far southern VA. Ill be suprised if its not runing from Jimmy to south of the border by tommorow night.
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
Where’s the rain? Not a single drop yet in Mooresville


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Finally first action here. Long way to go to get my 7-10” I’m hoping for with flash flooding across 150 and LKN Spilling its banks into the streets but hey …. Gotta start somewhere


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