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Pattern NC Only Thread

My residence near Lake Wheeler was finally in the bullseye yesterday. After getting 1.75 inches yesterday, another 1.16 was added to the rain gauge overnight for a total of 2.91 inches during the past twenty-four hours. If the rain can keep falling this week like this, it will go a long way towards replenishing the water tables in my neighborhood and erase the drought for the near term at least.
 
SD said:
The op euro is probably too high but I'm impressed by the 6 inch eps mean across much of the state.
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I get it that the euro and it's ensembles look so juicy and we all need that to be right. However I look at the 3k nam and I'm seeing that familiar trend of backing off of my totals. The 3k says my 80% pops on Thursday are gonna need revising. This is through 60hrs.Screenshot_20260721_064006_Chrome.jpg
 
Shaggy said:
I get it that the euro and it's ensembles look so juicy and we all need that to be right. However I look at the 3k nam and I'm seeing that familiar trend of backing off of my totals. The 3k says my 80% pops on Thursday are gonna need revising. This is through 60hrs.View attachment 196935
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My concern would be this verifying south of models not north. The initial big convective band should push out a nice OFB and help the front get farther south than modeled, we do this every time. I would think your area would be more likely to over perform than under.
 
SD said:
My concern would be this verifying south of models not north. The initial big convective band should push out a nice OFB and help the front get farther south than modeled, we do this every time. I would think your area would be more likely to over perform than under.
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I'm a big fan of seasonal trends and this year has been to reduce pops and totals as we approach go time. That has to break at some point and maybe this is the one.
 
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