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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

Jimmy Hypocracy said:
if you're on the Leeside of the Applachians, don't expect snow from this. We don't get snow in NW flow events so it's certainly not happening with this thing. Unless returns make it over the mountain tops and reform on the on the backside, which can't even be accurately forecasted ahead of time, it ain't happening
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This isn't necessarily true, the biggest snowstorm east of the Apps in NC since at least the mid 19th century in March 1927 dive bombed into NC from the NW perpendicular to the mountains and a surface low rapidly developed offshore producing exceptionally heavy snow. Granted there was apparently another southern stream s/w that provided extra low-mid level moisture transport as it entered the contiguous US from extreme southern California
 
Gfs looks much better than the 18z with the snow line.
 
Mr. Grinch said:
But you said in your first and second sentences no snow. Then in your third you said it might happen. Which is it? I'm confused

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I've seen stuff make it over the mountains but it's extremely rare and even more unpredictable. We have about the same odds of scoring from a NW flow event. Odds aren't 0% but they're damn close. Now, if we can tap the gulf that's a different story but I don't see anything suggesting that. Trends maybe better but we are getting so close to the event it would take a modern miracle to see that happen
 
Dry clipper per WRAL. They said coastal plain could get a little Atlantic feed so snow showers a possibility there. Can't put all your stock in their forecast or in house models.
 
No way to get appreciable snow through most of GA into the Carolinas with that h5 look. Likely toast for us; based on the GFS. Not sure we are going to be able to blame the GFS's progressive nature on this one.
 
Webberweather53 said:
This isn't necessarily true, the biggest snowstorm east of the Apps in NC since at least the mid 19th century in March 1927 dive bombed into NC from the NW perpendicular to the mountains and a surface low rapidly developed offshore producing exceptionally heavy snow. Granted there was apparently another southern stream s/w that provided extra low-mid level moisture transport as it entered the contiguous US from extreme southern California
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There's no feature in this event that would suggest getting precip to stream in on the Leeside. I mean you have 5,000 ft+ mountain peaks blocking the precip being pushed in along the front and they're also delaying the arrival of cold air. Areas in ENC will not suffer the same fate as those further west. There is a feature supplying moisture from the Atlantic but those further west will not benefit from that. We're solely relying on the precip associated with the front being pushed through
 
I actually pinpointed that late week thing earlier before more than one model (Euro) showed that clipper/gulf interaction?/late bloomer possibility.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
There's no feature in this event that would suggest getting precip to stream in on the Leeside. I mean you have 5,000 ft+ mountain peaks blocking the precip being pushed in along the front and they're also delaying the arrival of cold air. Areas in ENC will not suffer the same fate as those further west. There is a feature supplying moisture from the Atlantic but those further west will not benefit from that. We're solely relying on the precip associated with the front being pushed through. Edit: Webber you're absolutely right. When the wave comes over perpendicular to the mountains THATS when these Leeside troughs set up and people can get a suprise snow
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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
There's no feature in this event that would suggest getting precip to stream in on the Leeside. I mean you have 5,000 ft+ mountain peaks blocking the precip being pushed in along the front and they're also delaying the arrival of cold air. Areas in ENC will not suffer the same fate as those further west. There is a feature supplying moisture from the Atlantic but those further west will not benefit from that. We're solely relying on the precip associated with the front being pushed through
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No, there's an appreciable amount of mid level west-southwest to southwesterly flow that's advecting moisture into the central and eastern portions of the Carolinas from the Gulf of Mexico in advance of this positively tilted trough axis.
 
Webberweather53 said:
No, there's an appreciable amount of mid level west-southwest to southwesterly flow that's advecting moisture into the central and eastern portions of the Carolinas from the Gulf of Mexico in advance of this positively tilted trough axis.
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The more this trough axis digs to the south and west the more this becomes an overrunning event for portions of the SE US although the overall setup is more favorable the closer to the Atlantic coast you go in th SE US
 
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Looks dry to me

Webberweather53 said:
No, there's an appreciable amount of mid level west-southwest to southwesterly flow that's advecting moisture into the central and eastern portions of the Carolinas from the Gulf of Mexico in advance of this positively tilted trough axis.
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deltadog03 said:
To me it's better. I think with that look there should be more precipitation
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While this pattern is northern stream dominant it's very encouraging to see such strong and moist southwesterly-WSW flow in the mid-levels, which is something we've been lacking since the early Dec storm
 
Ok GFS with your dry output :rolleyes:

gfs_uv250_us_13.png
 
deltadog03 said:
To me it's better. I think with that look there should be more precipitation
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Like webb said, gfs doesn't do good in events like these. NAM/EURO/UK/CMC/ICON Lol, much better with precip. Lets hopes thats the trend.
 
Unless Pivotal is fooling me with virga, this system wants to toss the SC lowcountry a bone with light snow on the CMC.

Edit: Dewpoints look fine, too.
 
1300m said:
I think there would be in subsequent frames. Where have we seen a strong jet streak like that before haha?
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I agree! I would honestly be a little surprised if the doc didn't trend better in a bit
 
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