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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

Well H5 looks better through 66 on new NAM...see where it ends up.
 

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New Huntsville AFD “
This front looks to be a fairly quick
mover, but the deep moisture shown in model sounding combined with
strong forcing, could produce a quick few hundreths to around 0.10
inches of precipitation Monday night through Tuesday. This would
result in at least one half of an inch of snowfall over most of
northern Alabama and possibly up around 1 inch in some locations (if
heavier scenarios turn out to be right).”

Also, I usually read and rarely post because I have much to learn and enjoy reading and learning. Been lurking around since talkweather days, maybe 2013. Just want to thank everyone here.
 
NAM does look better

nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png
 
Storm5 said:
Lol heaven forbid people have different opinions.

Let's change the forum to where everyone has to agree and be unrealistic. Good idea

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
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I know how you feel now. I was being unrealistic about the last system, and now these people are clearly in denial about the trend, and the poorness of the setup in general. It's more likely than not we won't get anything out of this and the next system will be just rain since that seems to pretty much always be a guarantee, assuming the cold air won't last too long because the Pacific is so damn fast, we have no high latitude blocking, and no southern California shortwave to bring in copious moisture to match up with cold in time. I agree. Let's just face reality now and stop leaving in a fantasy world. This is just the sad reality for snow lovers in the SE.
 
At the end of the run, you can see a bit of moisture possibly linking together from the gulf into the main swath of precip. Also can see the energy off the coast of the Carolina's pulling in. May not work out for SC, but this may be a real good look for E NC.
 
I don't trust the NAM at all, but given how everything has gone recently, I give it 1% of my trust. Just 1. If more and more models look like it, I'll give it 1.1%. I hope we see more like it, since that would really mean snow here. Basically, what it's showing at 10:1, could be realistic. Don't go extreme with 20:1 as the NAM overdoes QPF.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I don't trust the NAM at all, but given how everything has gone recently, I give it 1% of my trust. Just 1. If more and more models look like it, I'll give it 1.1%. I hope we see more like it, since that would really mean snow here. Basically, what it's showing at 10:1, could be realistic. Don't go extreme with 20:1 as the NAM overdoes QPF.
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I don't blame you man. I wouldn't trust the bait the NAM is throwing out now as far as Earth is from the moon!
 
Brick Tamland said:
And the NAM gives us life. The short range models did do well with the last storm.
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Don't take the bait and go on this rollercoaster again. I wouldn't even think of putting much stock in that as of right now anyway given how fickle the setup is in general and models all over the place. Please take with a grain of salt so u won't be disappointed if it changes again.
 
Stormlover said:
Wow at the negative people on here. Remember, the NAM even when it was the outlier has done great several events over the last year.
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Yeah, the NA< did good with the Dec 9 storm here. Probably one of the best. GFS was stubborn, CMC was okay, and the Euro wasn't quite right. The NAM didn't do good last few events because it was mostly fringe regions it was bad in. I think that if you are in the NAM's target area, you have a chance. Assuming it doesn't all poof in 4 runs.
 
9C7FCFF1-A53E-48DE-AB2F-BD3564AA2FAA.png What is unreal about this is the air temp. Low - mid 20’s when the precip starts. Unreal. You don’t see that much in the south.
 
Just an observation. I come here to get informed about possible upcoming extreme weather events. This forum is an excellent resource and those involved have a done more than an excellent job in making this an elite platform for weather information. With that said I feel like the back and forth soap opera that shows up from time to time and the eagerness to jump down the throat of members who post something you disagree with and the arrogance that sometimes comes with that can take away from the quality of the discussion that is on going.
 
hartselleweather said:
View attachment 2805 What is unreal about this is the air temp. Low - mid 20’s when the precip starts. Unreal. You don’t see that much in the south.
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One of the reasons I’m pullig so hard for this system. Jan of 2014 was the only time I saw snow stick to everything and so fast. One inch in those temps would be amazing and so cool to see.
 
Ok so let's talk disclaimer first. Lol it's the NAM blah blah blah I know and agree
***I would argue that there is a very real possibility we could see a weak sfc reflection with a low under that awesome dual jet structure. Even if we don't, imho it won't take much more to have more moisture and qpf.
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