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Wintry Midsouth Winter Storm January 12th-13th

hartselleweather said:
This was the end of the wrf-arw2. Pretty neat!!
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That low is pretty far south compared to other models
 
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Nam at hour 45. I would like to think if that low were to move slower and the colder air to push in quicker a lot of this would fall as snow. Not counting on that at this point though.
 
00z NAM is predominantly a freezing rain fest for TN with light snow.
 
Shawn said:
00z NAM is predominantly a freezing rain fest for TN with light snow.
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Yep. Most of this is a icy mess w/some snow....wxbell’s maps suck at showing reality!
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Park that low over west central AL and let it keep turning. Lol. Do these ULL’s ever tend to slow or stall?
 
The big issue is the low is really not closed. NAM has been most inconsistent with this. It's trending toward the goofus and doc
 
Stormlover said:
RPM

RPM is meant to go farther out that that. It's really not that crappy, it's decent. It actually goes out 72 hours.
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Well the famous James Spann says this about it:

"RPM: Rapid Precision Mesoscale model. A numerical weather prediction system based on the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecast system (WRF-ARW). RPM generates forecasts out to 24 hours with updates every 3 hours in the United States and every 6 hours outside the United States. Precipitation forecasts are calculated from half-hourly instantaneous precipitation forecasts output by RPM. RPM model output is not available to the pubic; but we have full access and use it extensively in our forecast products."

The rest is here: https://www.alabamawx.com/?p=38944
 
Shawn said:
Well the famous James Spann says this about it:

"RPM: Rapid Precision Mesoscale model. A numerical weather prediction system based on the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecast system (WRF-ARW). RPM generates forecasts out to 24 hours with updates every 3 hours in the United States and every 6 hours outside the United States. Precipitation forecasts are calculated from half-hourly instantaneous precipitation forecasts output by RPM. RPM model output is not available to the pubic; but we have full access and use it extensively in our forecast products."

The rest is here: https://www.alabamawx.com/?p=38944
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hmm, interesting..all I know is two, if not more of the tv stations here use it and it goes out farther than that, at least the version they use.
 
Shawn said:
Well the famous James Spann says this about it:

"RPM: Rapid Precision Mesoscale model. A numerical weather prediction system based on the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecast system (WRF-ARW). RPM generates forecasts out to 24 hours with updates every 3 hours in the United States and every 6 hours outside the United States. Precipitation forecasts are calculated from half-hourly instantaneous precipitation forecasts output by RPM. RPM model output is not available to the pubic; but we have full access and use it extensively in our forecast products."

The rest is here: https://www.alabamawx.com/?p=38944
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Brad goes over the RPM here, and he runs it until Friday night.
 
stormcentral said:
Wow this topic died quick. The threat of freezing rain increasing for SE TN. This is a strong storm! Lol can u hear me now?
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I think this will spring surprises...the track of the low, if it is any stronger...it may be isolated areas, but some are going to get a good one that it doesn't look like it now...
 
olhausen said:
Euro much better for me. I’ll take 3 inches of snow gladly. It looked like the cold gets here a little quicker also.
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I want it believe it will trend better here, but I know that doesn’t happen, I’m just in awe it went from awesome to bad this close in. And I know it will only trend worse, went from 8 inches or more to not even seeing sleet, I guess I’m still just very flustered.
 
For those in AL some hope of with the amount of forcing/steep lapse rates in combination with the CAA working on to set off some snow showers Friday afternoon and evening based on the track now light mostly but a chance on the backside


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