Wintry Midsouth Winter Storm January 12th-13th

[South AL Wx]

Absolutely no mention at all from FFC about any sort of wintry weather in GA.

They have a chance of snow in some of their far northern counties. They didn't mention anything new in their afternoon AFD, but from the previous discussion:

"Models continue to keep precipitation chances high enough on the back side
of the system Friday night into Saturday for at least a chance for
some snow mixing in across the far north as the colder airmass dives
into the state. Confidence is not very high and moisture would be
limited behind the system."

 

[NWMSGuy]

Being that the GFS is more progressive compared to the NAM/EURO/CMC, at this range, which of the model has the best handled or is it a toss-up?

 

[deltadog03]

Chris, can we get a slight chance (at least) of severe to the East with that look? I really need to learn more about severe!

I think so

 

[Tarheel1]

Memphis just got NAM'd again! But I think the squall line in GA to the W Carolinas, is equally impressive!

 

[Tarheel1]

18z GFS not as robust as NAM, more ice for Memphis, than snow. Reall bombs over KY! Big 1045 high dropping into the plains, bringing the warmth!

 

[Stormlover]

Heavy "precip" fri/sat from north alabama northward

 

[deltadog03]

I don't know if we can get the quality of moisture in here, but I think it's something we have to watch
For severe wx I mean

 

[accu35]

18z GFS not as robust as NAM, more ice for Memphis, than snow. Reall bombs over KY! Big 1045 high dropping into the plains, bringing the warmth!

Its also the 18z to

 

[SoutheastRidge]

Maybe we should rename the thread Winter Storm Hunter since that's the name of this winter storm ?

 

[Stormlover]

Maybe we should rename the thread Winter Storm Hunter since that's the name of this winter storm ?

No way. Never use those lame weather channel names.Never.

 

[SoutheastRidge]

No way. Never use those lame weather channel names.Never.

Yeah it's just silly. I mean how are going to remember all these named storms years from now ? I don't even remember the name of the storm from early December.

 

[ForsythSnow]

No way. Never use those lame weather channel names.Never.

I agree. I hate the garbage that TWC started. It's pathetic to name a winter storm. I can't wait for the day they stop.

 

[Stormlover]

http://firsthandweather.com/3580/southern-snow/

 

[SoutheastRidge]

On another forum they mentioned the top analog for this storm is 12-23-2004.

 

[SD]

On another forum they mentioned the top analog for this storm is 12-23-2004.

You sure about that?

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

 

[Stormlover]

LOL

 

[SoutheastRidge]

You sure about that?

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

I'm just telling you what this guy said.

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

On another forum they mentioned the top analog for this storm is 12-23-2004.

That storm hit the Mid-west pretty bad. Track of the storm was from TX gulf coast NE towards Ohio. Close to 3 feet in places if I remember correctly.

 

[Stormlover]

NAVGEM

 

[StoneMtnWx]

The German model ICON has been added to tropical tidbits. Here is 18z run...doesn't close off at 5H like NAM/euro.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

 

[TheBatman]

Well Nam just started running now. Let see how we do on our 0Z runs with fresh data.

 

[Xtreme Weather]

Tick farther S thru 33 with vort

Sharper contour and more energy on southern end now thru 39 hour

45hr believe gonna try and go negative tilt/stronger amped up run incoming

 

[deltadog03]

About to close off at HR51 and still digging SE or at least ESE

 

[Storm5]

Yep starting to tilt

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk

 

[Xtreme Weather]

About to close off at HR51 and still digging SE or at least ESE

Yup think going too be a little W of previous tracks though but ridge little farther E tough and close

 

[Storm5]

.

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk

 

[Xtreme Weather]

57 hour fixing to go boom at 500mb northern stream trying to interact more this run as well

Trying to tilt for sure now

 

[Storm5]

Still open at 57

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk

 

[Storm5]

57 hour fixing to go boom at 500mb northern stream trying to interact more this run as well

Yep this is gonna be a huge run

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk

 

[Xtreme Weather]

Yep this is gonna be a huge run

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk

Severe weather threat as well in warm sector as well

 

[Storm5]

Finally closed

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk

 

[Xtreme Weather]

63 closed but neutral

 

[Storm5]

63 closed but neutral

Yeah lol it was leaning back now looks neutral

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk

 

[Storm5]

Low is much further SE this run

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk

 

[Storm5]

.

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk

 

[JLL1973]

I got nam'd

 

[Xtreme Weather]

Really jumped E with LP App Runner

 

[TheBatman]

.

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk

About 30 Miles more east I would be in the sweet spot!! Lol

 

[Taylor C]

Wow! Lots of significant changes possible with this one. I wouldn't believe anything yet other than it's going to be a big storm. Someone is going to get something massive!

 

[NWMSGuy]

Looks like the brunt of the snowfall was east of Memphis this run.