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Severe Mid-late February into March Severe Weather Threat(s)

The 12z ECMWF continues the theme of putting the subtropical jet on steroids by next week... Still looks like our ULL over the southwestern US could pose a legitimate risk of severe weather to at least south-central Texas and even the northwestern Gulf coast late this weekend and early next week.
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Webberweather53 said:
The 12z ECMWF continues the theme of putting the subtropical jet on steroids by next week... Still looks like our ULL over the southwestern US could pose a legitimate risk of severe weather to at least south-central Texas and even the northwestern Gulf coast late this weekend and early next week.
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One place I'm getting potentially concerned about is the eastern FL panhandle and the Big Bend; long way to go but some dynamics are at least suggesting that as a potential hot spot - ways to go, though ...
 
Webberweather53 said:
The 12z ECMWF continues the theme of putting the subtropical jet on steroids by next week... Still looks like our ULL over the southwestern US could pose a legitimate risk of severe weather to at least south-central Texas and even the northwestern Gulf coast late this weekend and early next week.
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yeah I was hoping to get my area more in play with this... think it occluding to early to become more a wide are threat,,, still got my eyes on it thanks eric for your input as always
 
Unless something pops - this'll be my last of the evening - have too much coming up the next few days with court - but looking at 18Z runs between other things tonight, it looks like the risk for severe next week may have subsided. Let's really hope so - but am I missing something? Will be checking in to see, as time allows ... and thanks in advance for the updates!

PS - Thanks also, folks, for keeping us all informed (not just me!)...
 
The 24th-25th is looking like another period of interest

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Not sure where this should go, so I'll put it here. There was a small line of thunderstorms that went through my area this morning that have had a couple of tornado warnings pop up from them in South Carolina. The line really got nasty over South Carolina, it looked like it was just heavy thunderstorms before it crossed.
 
With that energy cutting off and kinda just crapping around along the gulf it really limits the overall threat...I have a feeling though that we will trend away from the cutoff toward a more consolidated trough..
 
PDS Warning in Brunswick Co. NC... escalated quickly

Tornado Warning
NCC019-151745-
/O.NEW.KILM.TO.W.0002.170215T1655Z-170215T1745Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1155 AM EST WED FEB 15 2017

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Southwestern Brunswick County in southeastern North Carolina...

* Until 1245 PM EST

* At 1154 AM EST, a large and extremely dangerous tornado was located
over Pireway, or 9 miles north of Little River, moving east at 40
mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris
may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile
homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete
destruction is possible.

* The tornado will be near...
Grissettown around 1200 PM EST.
 
And just like that....



...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN BRUNSWICK COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has weakened
and moved out of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been
cancelled.
 
At the rate we're going, might as well try to get pumped up for severe wx and wedges because our odds of strong thunderstorms astronomically > wintry wx as is... Would be something if I ever saw another March 1984 tornado outbreak again... Can't really complain about simultaneous, twin F4s in Robeson and Scotland counties.
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SPC going w/ a slight tomorrow across portions of north TX and southern OK. If this ULL didn't get buried into the GOM, could have had a chance to produce a big boy outbreak...
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Webberweather53 said:
SPC going w/ a slight tomorrow across portions of north TX and southern OK. If this ULL didn't get buried into the GOM, could have had a chance to produce a big boy outbreak...
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yep just was thinking the same thing eric... me being a big severe wx fan... seems like everything little thing could go wrong goes wrong...but course its good thing also... but im really liking the pattern going into this spring... we keep getting these troughs digging west... close to spring we get moisture return is going to increase... this could be a very active spring severe wx season
 
The setup doesn't look horrible, would be nice to have a bit more low level wind shear ,and the shear vectors look parallel to each other which argues for excessive training but there's plenty of time for these mesoscale features to be resolved... Probably worthy of a slight atm
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Yalls boy, JB, put on Facebook : worst severe season since 2011 looming! " That's kind of scary!?
 
Tarheel1 said:
Yalls boy, JB, put on Facebook : worst severe season since 2011 looming! " That's kind of scary!?
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Lol its gonna bust now, he jinxed it. Tbh though this pattern does look great for severe wx the next few weeks with a classic NW-SE gradient across the US helping to instigate a storm track from the plains to the Lakes. Still can't entirely rule out one more wintry wx threats esp for the Appalachians, and while we have seen winter storms as late as early April in the Carolinas, climatology won't be on our side after the first week of March.
 
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Not sure if this belongs in this thread (tangentially it probably does, at least), and consider the source - but interesting nonetheless -

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