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Severe Mid-late February into March Severe Weather Threat(s)

I'm still curious about the evolution but the euro and gfs both agree on closing the energy off and shoving it southeastward

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Webber I have a question about the tweet in your post. With the gfs dropping the aam negative and the GWO moving from p8-2 wouldn't this result in the eastern ridge and Nina look versus high aam or is it due to the fact we are exiting a higher aam pattern

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whatalife said:
There really aren't good enough words for what we might be getting over the next 2 weeks severe wx wise...


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Yep... I keep hoping that somehow, someway something "fizzles" and things end up not getting as bad as we're afraid they could get.
 
Jeez... lol.
gfs_uv250_us_44.png


This overall setup is very fickle... You can see the GFS just barely missed phasing the ULL over the northern Gulf w/ the two shortwaves to its north. Small details wrt placement and intensity as well as timing of these disturbances will be instrumental in determining the overall coverage, and severity of impacts, and likely won't be confidently known for several days.
gfs_z500_vort_us_34.png
 
This is certainly something you won't see every day even on a model... The trough axis w/ our system around day 9 extends all the way into the Caribbean, Central America and even northeastern Pacific on the 0z GFS. Damn.gfs_z500_vort_watl_39.png
 
6Z pulls cold air south with the system, which weakens it quite a bit compared to 0Z and 18Z. Not sure if it neutralizes the threat, as it appears temps, dewpoints, and the jet are still present, but the jet arcs north a bit. The low might have missed a phase this run, as it is over 1000mb up the east coast.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Jeez... lol.
View attachment 149


This overall setup is very fickle... You can see the GFS just barely missed phasing the ULL over the northern Gulf w/ the two shortwaves to its north. Small details wrt placement and intensity as well as timing of these disturbances will be instrumental in determining the overall coverage, and severity of impacts, and likely won't be confidently known for several days.
View attachment 150
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Just wow! Can't image what that might be getting ready to do...


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Guidance overnight continues to try and cut-off bury this system into the Gulf of Mexico and Florida w/o much phasing w/ the northern stream... In such a case, severe weather probabilities would certainly be lower further east, however we still have a long ways to go and confidence is actually increasing that there will be at least some legitimate threat in south-central Texas and Louisiana. hence, the SPC is likely to issue a day 4-8 outlook within the next day or so
 
NWS Jax is still keeping an eye out but is less "vocal" or "apprehensive" today than yesterday ...

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