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Severe Mid February flooding/severe WX potential

Zander98al

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Id say straight line winds would almost be worse in this setup for the south. Here in birmingham theres still pools of water and everythings sloshy. If there was widespread severe winds it wouldn't be so good, on top of the projected rainfall on its way. 😵
 

TileDude

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There are forecasts of 4" to 7" of rain for north half of Alabama just Monday and Tuesday alone. Most rivers in the area are already near or above flood stage now. This could get really bad followed up with severe storms Wednesday / Thursday.
 
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Lol everything is hype for reed timmer lol its always "prolific outbreak" from him. I think its just a straight line wind threat with possibility of a tornado or two
surface winds do appear veering... more uni directional should limit the tornado potential at this time... still like to watch model trends
 

Myfrotho704_

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I’m seeing a QLCS with isolated tornadoes and damaging winds as being a primary risk C24FA7C8-9898-4615-9899-FF65587F3234.png C71D68D0-B48D-494F-A0F3-4894D8EF50AC.png 43FA9FDC-66C5-44B7-83C8-BAA812CE3104.png sounding from the NAM ahead of the low topped line of convection, once again, strong wind energy, it does have little backing in the lower levels but forcing is linear and critical angles aren’t to impressive, altho there not to bad
88A02D58-1C28-4DC2-855E-CEECD853A7A2.png
 

Myfrotho704_

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More East around NC/SC, cape looks low, but watch this look, another CAD boundary like the last one.... GFS could easily be underdoing CAPE like it always does, and that’s some strong wind energy... again 31464F57-1E59-4DFB-952D-67F5F0FAACD2.png 82EC6242-FE9D-4191-B101-8D2F9897DABE.png
 

BufordWX

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Take this FWIW but the 18z HRRR is very concerning flooding wise from Louisiana-Alabama, and even places farther east somewhat. A band of heavy rain moves in tomorrow morning to those regions and lasts throughout the day and through the rest of the run. If that’s to verify someone is going to see 6-10 inches of rain maybe even more especially in Mississippi

here are the rain accumulations from the 18 HRRR. Only goes through 06z Tuesday morning.
082373C3-38F9-47B2-A060-7322D89E8856.png

I should also probably note that the end of the run is still loaded with rain.
9B64E4D8-93F0-462B-9DE5-4F0B5A106926.png
 

BufordWX

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Take this FWIW but the 18z HRRR is very concerning flooding wise from Louisiana-Alabama, and even places farther east somewhat. A band of heavy rain moves in tomorrow morning to those regions and lasts throughout the day and through the rest of the run. If that’s to verify someone is going to see 6-10 inches of rain maybe even more especially in Mississippi

here are the rain accumulations from the 18 HRRR. Only goes through 06z Tuesday morning.
View attachment 33724

I should also probably note that the end of the run is still loaded with rain.
View attachment 33725
The 3km NAM meanwhile wants to hold the precipitation farther north. Still though areas where the heavy rain sets up get hit with loads of rain.

To show the difference compared to HRRR here is the accumulations at hour 36 for the NAM.
4A687F6C-5B4A-4441-AF2C-00EF7D7A84B0.png
Here is also the rain still going at hour 36.
67487792-ADAE-49E3-9654-3A06446C3DE7.png
So which one typically does better with this set up? A slight difference like this will make a huge difference with who gets more rain given the sharp southern cutoff.
 

Myfrotho704_

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The 3km NAM meanwhile wants to hold the precipitation farther north. Still though areas where the heavy rain sets up get hit with loads of rain.

To show the difference compared to HRRR here is the accumulations at hour 36 for the NAM.
View attachment 33728
Here is also the rain still going at hour 36.
View attachment 33727
So which one typically does better with this set up? A slight difference like this will make a huge difference with who gets more rain given the sharp southern cutoff.
I’d go with the NAM, since the SER tends to flex more then modeled
 

olhausen

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Since we are talking sever weather I came across this page and was very surprised to see that Middle Tennessee has had more tornadoes then west Tennessee over the last 30 years. In fact Middle Tennessee has averaged quite a bit more tornadoes then the rest of the state since 1995.
 

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Since we are talking sever weather I came across this page and was very surprised to see that Middle Tennessee has had more tornadoes then west Tennessee over the last 30 years. In fact Middle Tennessee has averaged quite a bit more tornadoes then the rest of the state since 1995.
Yeah, that’s sort shocked me also. But last few years seems like mid tennessee has had more severe weather than the western half... been a trend
 

Rick

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Well that didn't last long already talks of not being that bad and possible downgrades yet spc put out enhanced risk
 

Myfrotho704_

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Need to watch what the hrrr is showing, it’s showing a little line segment/QLCS that develops along a pseudo warm front in AL and manages to find some surface based instability, with a little area of heightened wind shear near it and better CAPE, if this was to occur some damaging gusts/isolated spin up would be possible from large low level hodographs, can’t completely rule out a little mesolow E9147368-D426-4E21-A7B0-C316248C0665.png A4304FF4-7EC6-498A-9148-41A19CFF785D.png 70B426B6-526C-401A-BEC2-6773F1B04138.png
 

metwannabe

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Will be interested to see how high the wind gets with the front this time. Was actually pretty impressive with the last storm.
View attachment 33785
Well if this verifies should basically finish off my roof (the shingles), I lost about 15-20 with the last one and calling insurance today.... seriously doubt they get out there before the next batch of wind/rain. I think we need a break from this mess
 

Wildboutsnow

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These trees right here are scary. We do not need not anymore rain and certainly no wind. I hope that none of this verifies. Bye bye chickens if these come down ( hopefully not bye bye me). They were only suppose to be in these coops for a couple of months until permanent barn. Didn’t expect this delay, rain please go away..🤮
 

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BirdManDoomW

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Not impressed. Looks like Georgia will save the Carolinas and take most of the moisture.
 
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