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Pattern Microwave March

ohhh sheeewww, glad to be out of the bullseye!!! This keeps going and Phil in FL may be in the game!! Seriously though, looked at soundings for 12z and even up here had mixing issues so think the nice colors might be more ice. Warm nose FTW
 
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I've been burned and disappointed too many times of late to get sucked into a mostly/all snow event at RDU until it's practically about to happen. WAA in March really sucks and as we saw last Jan & in Feb 2015, warm noses often over perform and climatology is even more favorable for mid level warm noses, hence if we were to see a solution even close to what the GFS is printing out, I would lean more towards sleet and freezing rain until evidence was more than conclusive enough for snow, thus take the snowfall output from the GFS near & south of the axis of heaviest snow and cut it by a third...
 
Webberweather53 said:
I've been burned and disappointed too many times of late to get sucked into a mostly/all snow event at RDU until it's practically about to happen. WAA in March really sucks and as we saw last Jan & in Feb 2015, warm noses often over perform and climatology is even more favorable for mid level warm noses, hence if we were to see a solution even close to what the GFS is printing out, I would lean more towards sleet and freezing rain until evidence was more than conclusive enough for snow, thus take the snowfall output from the GFS near & south of the axis of heaviest snow and cut it by a third...
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Freezing rain is rare in March, I'd even lean towards a cold rain unless your in that sweet spot of heavy snow...

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Webberweather53 said:
I've been burned and disappointed too many times of late to get sucked into a mostly/all snow event at RDU until it's practically about to happen. WAA in March really sucks and as we saw last Jan & in Feb 2015, warm noses often over perform and climatology is even more favorable for mid level warm noses, hence if we were to see a solution even close to what the GFS is printing out, I would lean more towards sleet and freezing rain until evidence was more than conclusive enough for snow, thus take the snowfall output from the GFS near & south of the axis of heaviest snow and cut it by a third...
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I mean to say "two-thirds"...
 
metwannabe said:
Freezing rain is rare in March, I'd even lean towards a cold rain unless your in that sweet spot of heavy snow...

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Just as recently as 2014, a devastating ZR event struck areas just outside of RDU. It's less common to see sleet and freezing rain this late for sure, but given recent history of winter storms in NC, the near record high SSTs off the SE US coast that would augment and amplify the attendant mid-level warm nose, and the fact that the GFS is already sniffing out CAD this far in advance, I think it's a very legitimate possibility, at least more so than mostly/all snow...
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
I'm reading the MA forum and it's just insane. They're all complaining. You would think they didn't all get 30" last january
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Yeah they complain with 10 in snow, it's not enough for them lol. I'll chase that anyday
 
accu35 said:
Yeah they complain with 10 in snow, it's not enough for them lol. I'll chase that anyday
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Ya know when the last time I saw 10" of snow in my part of NC? Oh yea that's right... NEVER. In a broad sense, they're so annoying tbh, and if they get jipped here on this one, they totally deserve it for all the complaining they're doing.
 
Wasn't going to, but I'm staying up for the Euro.Remeber this is exciting for me because I'm chasing
 
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