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Pattern May-hem

pcbjr said:
anybody warm ... LOL

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It's horrible outside . Just disgusting


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It was so warm last night I had trouble getting to sleep. I took my cover off and still felt pretty warm after doing so. I'm not ready for this. Glad that this is going to change, hopefully it stays for awhile.
 
Storm5 said:
It's horrible outside . Just disgusting


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This is cool compared to what we'll have to go through June-August ! It's definitely warm though. 83 and humid. Windows are up, fans blowing. Trying to stay cool. A/C doesn't work :(
 
Storm5 said:
It's horrible outside . Just disgusting


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What's so damn funny about it is that the Gainesville NWS is reporting rain and there isn't a cloud within 100 miles ...

Yup - this heat sux - but ya know what - it usually happens to get hot in May - though this is still April - just usually doesn't get this hot until around May the 25th right before the seasonal sea breeze fronts kick in ... funny that May is really "hotter" to the skin (due to lack of moisture) than June - August ...

OK - enough BS from inside where the A/C is running ... :cool:
 
SoutheastRidge said:
This is cool compared to what we'll have to go through June-August ! It's definitely warm though. 83 and humid. Windows are up, fans blowing. Trying to stay cool. A/C doesn't work :(
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Ouch ... run up to Winfield Scott and take a cool dip or something! (Or go to Pappy's and gets some chicken and ice cream and enjoy the Nottlely).
 
The 18z GFS is MUCH drier and probably closer to reality. It's showing under 2 inches of rain for a large area at day 10. The late week system barely drops .50 now over parts of upstate SC on this run.
 
JHS said:
The 18z GFS is MUCH drier and probably closer to reality. It's showing under 2 inches of rain for a large area at day 10. The late week system barely drops .50 now over parts of upstate SC on this run.
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Yup - not lookin' great for precip over the next week on that run -- but at this point, some rain and cooler than normal beats none and hot, I 'spose

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JHS said:
The 18z GFS is MUCH drier and probably closer to reality. It's showing under 2 inches of rain for a large area at day 10. The late week system barely drops .50 now over parts of upstate SC on this run.
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You always comment on the 18z gfs lol

But since you did it's all about the evolution that's why it was drier . It swings the system through pretty quickly and does not cutoff allowing for an extended period of rain. The 18z runs have been doing this for days . With the block up top a slower cutoff solution makes more sense . Previous gfs have been showing it and it's exactly what the 12z euro showed
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JHS said:
The 18z GFS is MUCH drier and probably closer to reality. It's showing under 2 inches of rain for a large area at day 10. The late week system barely drops .50 now over parts of upstate SC on this run.
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When you looked at it, it moved, didn't it! :(
 
Storm5 said:
You always comment on the 18z gfs lol

But since you did it's all about the evolution that's why it was drier . It swings the system through pretty quickly and does not cutoff allowing for an extended period of rain. The 18z runs have been doing this for days . With the block up top a slower cutoff solution makes more sense . Previous gfs have been showing it and it's exactly what the 12z euro showed
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On second look The 18z does cut off but it's much further north and swings right on through Look at the difference the 12z cuts off much further SW and is MUCH SLOWER

12z gfs
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18z gfs same period ......she gone
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From Monsieur Cosgrove:

'After a Saturday filled with tragedy associated with tornadoes and flooding, Sunday should see the exit of the major storm from the afflicted areas in Texas and the Ozark Plateau. But I wish to stress that this giant storm will have one more day of mayhem attached to it, ranging from strong winds and heavy snow in the north central states to severe thunderstorms, twisters, and more torrential rainfall in much of the Mississippi River watershed."

Based on the bolded, I think this is a subtle shoutout to southernwx.com. Congrats!
 
Our chance at a heavy rainfall event is gone. The 0z Euro is much farther north and faster and the 6z GFS is drier than the 18z was. The reversal on temps should happen soon enough, meaning that May will be warmer and drier than normal.
 
JHS said:
Our chance at a heavy rainfall event is gone. The 0z Euro is much farther north and faster and the 6z GFS is drier than the 18z was. The reversal on temps should happen soon enough, meaning that May will be warmer and drier than normal.
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Still favor a slower wetter solution. Slight timing differences cause big changes run to run . GFS was faster not allowing for the ridge roll overhead like 12z and slow it way down

Why would the temps trend warmer ??? The front is coming through regardless of rain amounts
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ForsythSnow said:
After seeing 80s this month constantly, yes. We need cooler temps all over, and maybe we can get it finally. I have lost count on how many months we have been above average at the end of the month up here lol.
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I'm betting you're going on 14 or close to it ... :(

PS - Reaching out to Larry - I bet he knows to the day!
 
JHS said:
Our chance at a heavy rainfall event is gone. The 0z Euro is much farther north and faster and the 6z GFS is drier than the 18z was. The reversal on temps should happen soon enough, meaning that May will be warmer and drier than normal.
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1 run. the 18Z GFS. All I have to say. The temperatures won't be affected much with precipitation. If you think a rain clown map is going to be reality then you should think about how many clown maps we saw this winter that we are still shoveling lol. The models are just finding a realistic solution, and 2" isn't dry at all. 0.1 is.
 
pcbjr said:
I'm betting you're going on 14 or close to it ... :(

PS - Reaching out to Larry - I bet he knows to the day!
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April makes 15 for ATL, thus extending the record warm month string even further! I see the weeklong projected major cooldown
on the 0Z gfs but as March showed that's obviously still far from a guarantee for May to come in cooler than normal as a whole. But I'm thrilled to see the cooldown and have hope we can finally get an end to the streak. If not, the development of El Niño would almost definitely lead to its end later in the year and could even lead to the start of a cold string. Perhaps this cooldown in May is foretelling this.
 
GaWx said:
April makes 15, thus extending the record warm month string even further! I see the weeklong projected major cooldown
on the 0Z gfs but as March showed that's obviously still far from a guarantee for May to come in cooler than normal as a whole. But I'm thrilled to see the cooldown and have hope we can finally get an end to the streak. If not, the development of El Niño would almost definitely lead to its end later in the year and could even lead to the start of a cold string.
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Thanks, Man!
 
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