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Pattern May: gateway to everyone's favorite season

metwannabe said:
That is dead accurate

.76 in May, good shot of falling short of an inch for the entire month. My centipede already has brown patches and haven't cut it in 2 weeks, feast or famine what's new.

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If the models are right with shunting the ridge off to the SW after the apex of the heat we should start to see much higher pwat air start streaming all the way around the ridge and into our area on the NW flow. I wouldn't be too shocked to see models trend a bit wetter in the day 8-10 period but that is predicated on the ridge shifting SW. Don't sleep on thursday either especially up your way. The euro is dry but the canadian and gfs have a nice nw flow wave and some precip

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SD said:
If the models are right with shunting the ridge off to the SW after the apex of the heat we should start to see much higher pwat air start streaming all the way around the ridge and into our area on the NW flow. I wouldn't be too shocked to see models trend a bit wetter in the day 8-10 period but that is predicated on the ridge shifting SW. Don't sleep on thursday either especially up your way. The euro is dry but the canadian and gfs have a nice nw flow wave and some precip

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Never bet against the ridge

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Looks like the Golden State Warriors are going to rally again, as they're catching up. P's lead, once 17, is now down to 7
 
0Z GFS suite: not as hot as prior 3 runs for 5/28-30. Hopefully, this is for real although it is still almost as hot as prior runs on 5/25-7.
 
GaWx said:
0Z GFS suite: not as hot as prior 3 runs for 5/28-30. Hopefully, this is for real although it is still almost as hot as prior runs on 5/25-7.
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Still has extremely brutal temperatures inland coastal counties Sat thru Tues with a "cooldown" afterward
I saw some 104 to 108 contours on weather.us for the 0z run with a couple of 110 max
 
12z GFS is showing heights of 516dm south of Hudson Bay around 5/30.

Heights that low and that far south this time of year also has to be near-record breaking for this time of year.
 
Stormsfury said:
Still has extremely brutal temperatures inland coastal counties Sat thru Tues with a "cooldown" afterward
I saw some 104 to 108 contours on weather.us for the 0z run with a couple of 110 max
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Can’t wait! ?E2A5AA4E-9A48-4D34-8207-B17CCBA324B3.png
 
GaWx said:
The Euro is very likely too hot by at least several degrees:
https://southernwx.com/community/threads/early-2019-s-e-heatwave-duration-record.568/#post-179073
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What's concerning to me on this is that the GFS has increased temperatures a couple of degrees and is getting very close to what the EURO is showing.

What also concerns me is that the normal bias the EURO would have may actually be less severe than normal because of the fact the ground is so bone dry in these areas for one and two, pronounced offshore flow and downslope components will only maximize full insolation in this setup. It will be intriguing to say the least how verification plays out on this one.
 
Unless you're a fan of the SER (I don't mean the poster), don't look at the Happy Hour GFS.
 
GaWx said:
Unless you're a fan of the SER (I don't mean the poster), don't look at the Happy Hour GFS.
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BTW, did you guys see a pop-up rain shower / thunderstorm down that way today?

I saw a tiny red blob on radar in that area earlier.
 
Congrats upstate
11468fea3a4c7d4c536df19d4a3b8de1.jpg


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